Does this 4T seem a little 2T-ish to anyone else?

[Eric the Green]

(04-01-2022, 07:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 02:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: Assuming failure, I doubt we'll move to a flat, unending sameness.  It would take an entire saeculum of sameness to make it permanent. I suspect that the next 2T will bring all the failure to the forefront, and, perhaps, kill it for a long time if not for good.

There is NO 2T without a successful 4T before it.

... and hence, our point of departure.  Remember, Germany and Japan, and to a lesser extent Italy and Finland, had failed 4Ts last time.  It's not ideal, but it's not a death sentence either.

As I already pointed out, Germany and Japan were rescued by the USA. Who is going to rescue the USA? And the whole world? ETs?

[David Horn]

(04-01-2022, 12:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-01-2022, 07:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 02:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: Assuming failure, I doubt we'll move to a flat, unending sameness.  It would take an entire saeculum of sameness to make it permanent. I suspect that the next 2T will bring all the failure to the forefront, and, perhaps, kill it for a long time if not for good.

There is NO 2T without a successful 4T before it.

... and hence, our point of departure.  Remember, Germany and Japan, and to a lesser extent Italy and Finland, had failed 4Ts last time.  It's not ideal, but it's not a death sentence either.

As I already pointed out, Germany and Japan were rescued by the USA. Who is going to rescue the USA? And the whole world? ETs?

That's a fair point, but, to my way of thinking, not definitive.  Look at the model autocracies in the world.  All are pushing out the very people they need to succeed ... and those people have to go somewhere.  When does that create a new center mass that becomes a backlash against repression and, frankly, stupidity?  TBD, but not forever.

Again, I feel the undergirding of a 2T that won't feel very 2T when it happens.  There are too many issues waiting to be addressed that affect too many people to ignore.  This may be bottom-up this time.

[pbrower2a]

(04-01-2022, 12:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-01-2022, 07:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 02:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: Assuming failure, I doubt we'll move to a flat, unending sameness.  It would take an entire saeculum of sameness to make it permanent. I suspect that the next 2T will bring all the failure to the forefront, and, perhaps, kill it for a long time if not for good.

There is NO 2T without a successful 4T before it.

... and hence, our point of departure.  Remember, Germany and Japan, and to a lesser extent Italy and Finland, had failed 4Ts last time.  It's not ideal, but it's not a death sentence either.

As I already pointed out, Germany and Japan were rescued by the USA. Who is going to rescue the USA? And the whole world? ETs?

Germany and Japan would be obvious candidates this time.

[Eric the Green]

(04-02-2022, 07:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-01-2022, 12:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(04-01-2022, 07:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 02:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-31-2022, 01:02 PM)David Horn Wrote: Assuming failure, I doubt we'll move to a flat, unending sameness.  It would take an entire saeculum of sameness to make it permanent. I suspect that the next 2T will bring all the failure to the forefront, and, perhaps, kill it for a long time if not for good.

There is NO 2T without a successful 4T before it.

... and hence, our point of departure.  Remember, Germany and Japan, and to a lesser extent Italy and Finland, had failed 4Ts last time.  It's not ideal, but it's not a death sentence either.

As I already pointed out, Germany and Japan were rescued by the USA. Who is going to rescue the USA? And the whole world? ETs?

That's a fair point, but, to my way of thinking, not definitive.  Look at the model autocracies in the world.  All are pushing out the very people they need to succeed ... and those people have to go somewhere.  When does that create a new center mass that becomes a backlash against repression and, frankly, stupidity?  TBD, but not forever.

Again, I feel the undergirding of a 2T that won't feel very 2T when it happens.  There are too many issues waiting to be addressed that affect too many people to ignore.  This may be bottom-up this time.

Much of what you feel must be put off until the 2T, must be done in this 4T. It's time to roll up our sleaves a bit and take some action, not just comment here. Write letters, speak out, donate, be a prophet gray champion. Fulfill our Boomer role. Not by sitting back and wait for a new prophet generation that may never come, or may come too late. Remember the Obama speech. It applies to us too. Change won't happen by waiting for somebody else to do something. The regeneracy started in 2017-2018. It is revving up again. NOW is the time. Mars stationary in Aquarius in the progressed chart of our age. The great planetary returns in the USA. Now. We are the ones we have been waiting for. No excuses. It's OUR time now, as Bill Clinton said in 1993. We frittered it all away during the 3T, arguing over Monica Lewinsky and gay marriage. But 4Ts cannot be escaped. We cannot escape a climate that is breaking down forever within the next 10 years. If you feel too old, then spend some time and energy and get younger.

https://philosopherswheel.com/progressive2020s.html

The more dispirited we are about the prospects for change, the more likely the powerful are likely to maintain their power.
https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=2575

[David Horn]

(04-02-2022, 12:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Much of what you feel must be put off until the 2T, must be done in this 4T. It's time to roll up our sleeves a bit and take some action, not just comment here. Write letters, speak out, donate, be a prophet gray champion. Fulfill our Boomer role. Not by sitting back and wait for a new prophet generation that may never come or may come too late. Remember the Obama speech. It applies to us too. Change won't happen by waiting for somebody else to do something.

Must be done and will be done are very different concepts.  I agree that we Boomers owe it to ourselves and posterity to do anything we can to move things forward, while being cautious to avoid backlash that seems to deep-six every progressive move forward.  That said, we are only minor players in this human drama.  The forces we need to oppose and overturn have spent decades and untold millions creating the state we're in today. Reversing that and implanting a new paradigm won't be easy.

more from Eric Wrote:The regeneracy started in 2017-2018. It is revving up again. NOW is the time. Mars stationary in Aquarius in the progressed chart of our age. The great planetary returns in the USA. Now. We are the ones we have been waiting for. No excuses. It's OUR time now, as Bill Clinton said in 1993. We frittered it all away during the 3T, arguing over Monica Lewinsky and gay marriage. But 4Ts cannot be escaped. We cannot escape a climate that is breaking down forever within the next 10 years. If you feel too old, then spend some time and energy and get younger.

You made the point for me.  Obfuscation and misdirection are key elements in the strategy we're opposing, and it's already managed to create enough malcontent that efforts to oppose it are seen as the work of enemies and discounted without being heard.  A dose of reality is the only guaranteed solution to that problem, and, unfortunately, we can't force it to happen.

more from Eric Wrote:The more dispirited we are about the prospects for change, the more likely the powerful are likely to maintain their power.

I agree with this.  A united front is a must, and part of the problem, I might add.  The progressive movement is broken into factions -- all wish to push their special agenda items to the front and others to the side.  For example, a 100% focus on racial justice guarantees that climate concerns and greater wealth and income equality are muffled and ineffectual.  As justified as BLM is in their actions, it's success comes at high cost.  Make a list.  Frankly, it's a bit depressing.

[pbrower2a]

(04-04-2022, 06:58 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-02-2022, 12:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Much of what you feel must be put off until the 2T, must be done in this 4T. It's time to roll up our sleeves a bit and take some action, not just comment here. Write letters, speak out, donate, be a prophet gray champion. Fulfill our Boomer role. Not by sitting back and wait for a new prophet generation that may never come or may come too late. Remember the Obama speech. It applies to us too. Change won't happen by waiting for somebody else to do something.

Must be done and will be done are very different concepts.  I agree that we Boomers owe it to ourselves and posterity to do anything we can to move things forward, while being cautious to avoid backlash that seems to deep-six every progressive move forward.  That said, we are only minor players in this human drama.  The forces we need to oppose and overturn have spent decades and untold millions creating the state we're in today.

Those Boomers who are not so abrasive, dogmatic, and selfish are the ones who need to have the lasting influence. Such is tricky because such is incompatible with self-promotion that includes flagrant display. Beyond any question, Donald Trump will exemplify all that can be wrong with boomers. Maybe it would be better if the likes of welders and hairdressers were the ones who shaped attitudes of elites. 

Much of child-raising practice in the 1T will be done under the shadow of bad memories of Donald Trump. Narcissistic personalities are already shown for the unpleasantness that they are. I see Donald Trump and many figures of entertainment and commerce as examples of how we don't want our kids to turn out. Knowing that there are limits on material indulgence, a recognition that intellectual curiosity is itself satisfying, that service and productivity are essential, and a rejection of extremist ideologies and religiosity will be essential.  

Quote:    

more from Eric Wrote:The regeneracy started in 2017-2018. It is revving up again. NOW is the time. Mars stationary in Aquarius in the progressed chart of our age. The great planetary returns in the USA. Now. We are the ones we have been waiting for. No excuses. It's OUR time now, as Bill Clinton said in 1993. We frittered it all away during the 3T, arguing over Monica Lewinsky and gay marriage. But 4Ts cannot be escaped. We cannot escape a climate that is breaking down forever within the next 10 years. If you feel too old, then spend some time and energy and get younger.

You made the point for me.  Obfuscation and misdirection are key elements in the strategy we're opposing, and it's already managed to create enough malcontent that efforts to oppose it are seen as the work of enemies and discounted without being heard.  A dose of reality is the only guaranteed solution to that problem, and we can't force it to happen.

Yes. Political and commercial leaders can go only so far with lies. At the least one must be able to backtrack.  

Some people (as at FoX Propaganda Channel) continue to ramp up the lies, creating if not a personality for Trump (it seems to be fading) then at least an amenable climate for the next one. Just recently its hosts have excoriated far-bigger Disney (to which it sold much of its entertainment division at fire-sale prices) and Apple (enough said) as 'woke' entities. Know well that viewership of FoX News is generally too poor to buy Apple products and Disney has its allure even if its well-controlled hosts allege that Disney sexualizes its characters. (What? I thought that Disney was asexual in its appeal, and is meticulous in keeping such so).  Sex roles might be real, but such has always been so throughout more than a century of cinema and television.

[/quote]

Quote:[quote pid='81350' dateline='1649073496']

Quote:more from Eric

The more dispirited we are about the prospects for change, the more likely the powerful are likely to maintain their power.

I agree with this.  A united front is a must, and part of the problem, I might add.  The progressive movement is broken into factions -- all wish to push their special agenda items to the front and others to the side.  For example, a 100% focus on racial justice guarantees that climate concerns and greater wealth and income equality are muffled and ineffectual.  As justified as BLM in their actions, it's success comes at high cost.  Make a list.  Frankly, it's a bit depressing.

[/quote]

The current fault is with the conservative, traditionalist side which has mostly taken the authoritarian route. It is as if the Joseph McCarthy wing of the GOP had taken the Party over while Ike was President and ensured that at the first time of grave distress with liberal politics they would be around to offer an America ferociously anti-liberal and militaristic in its opposition to Communism. That such might have brought about  nuclear war would have mattered little.

Liberalism can make errors, as in assuming that criminal behavior is a consequence of discrimination and deprivation instead of a fault of individual character.  Excessive emphasis on one thing at the expense of others of course splinters the Progressive side.  The GOP is to politics what the prosperity gospel is to fundamentalist Christianity: a wealth cult. It well knows how to exploit hurt feelings and unmet hopes by offering even more for great sacrifices without the responsibility to produce the compensation for those sacrifices. We all know how that goes -- work harder and longer so that you can deserve more when the rich are so prosperous that they will invest again. The rich will invest in castles and palaces instead of plant and equipment, and even if they do invest in plant and equipment they will have shortages to exploit for monopoly profits. Labor-management relations will be much like serf-lord relationships... still a raw deal. Such is fascistic economics, which is nothing more than a newfangled feudalism.

[Eric the Green]

Must be done and will be done are not the same, no doubt. Opposing obfuscation won't be easy, no doubt. But must be done implies consequences if not done. As I see it those consequences will be no 2T, the end of the saeculum and the end of the republic and all civilization.

But, previous 4Ts were not altogether different from our situation.

[beechnut79]

(04-04-2022, 12:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Must be done and will be done are not the same, no doubt. Opposing obfuscation won't be easy, no doubt. But must be done implies consequences if not done. As I see it those consequences will be no 2T, the end of the saeculum and the end of the republic and all civilization.

But, previous 4Ts were not altogether different from our situation.

But, haven’t you stated a few times here that the crux of this 4T still lies ahead of us, most likely around mid-decade? That would mean that even the COVID disaster didn’t qualify. Might the so-called Great Resignation be the first wave?

[Eric the Green]

(04-04-2022, 05:54 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(04-04-2022, 12:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Must be done and will be done are not the same, no doubt. Opposing obfuscation won't be easy, no doubt. But must be done implies consequences if not done. As I see it those consequences will be no 2T, the end of the saeculum and the end of the republic and all civilization.

But, previous 4Ts were not altogether different from our situation.

But, haven’t you stated a few times here that the crux of this 4T still lies ahead of us, most likely around mid-decade? That would mean that even the COVID disaster didn’t qualify. Might the so-called Great Resignation be the first wave?

The first waves have come for the last 13+ years; the Great Recession among them, and the Trump presidency, covid, climate change disasters mounting, the January 6th coup and mounting threats by Republicans to democracy, and now the threat of Russia and the war crimes in Ukraine.

The Great Resignation is part of current economic strains and changes, propelled by covid but part of the aftermath of 40 years of Reaganomics and mounting inequality, and that is part of our 4T as well.

Yes, the climax is due mid-decade through the final year of the decade. The threats of civil war and war abroad, and more climate disasters, will probably be the crux of the climax. Will we rise to the occasion and make some major changes to our institutions and our economy and ecology? That's the big question.

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to see anything 2T-like about this time except for institutional failure. The fullest danger of a 4T is likely past. A successful 4T does not end in picking and choosing what 3T characteristics to preserve. Most of those must die. The ephemeral fads are not the sorts of things that become 'classics'. Maybe we have enshrined some 3T music, literature, and art from the second-to-last Saeculum, but that is on the truly high end of achievement. In music, Bartok's violin concerto, Gershwin's Piano Concerto in F, Prokofiev's third piano concerto as well as late Puccini would fit well into any time.

Politics of the 3T leading into the Great Depression and Second World War created much of the mess, and I hardly need go into the details. Neoliberal ideology may not be as horrible as fascism (including the Second KKK) and bolshevism, but all that it could ever achieve is the impoverishment of the vast majority on behalf of an economic elite that already has more than anyone can justify. America needs a new version of a New Deal, a Marshall Plan for the poor. Let's get this straight: although individual poverty may be the result of perverse choices and tragic misfortunes, mass poverty in an era of unusually-high productivity and technology that would have been a dream for anyone whose lifespan might have been eighty years ending around 1960, mass poverty can only be the result of perverse decisions from On High. Someone stupid enough to fritter away a fortune as a high-roller has shown that he deserves poverty.

Americans will soon as a whole will have a temperament better suited to 1950 than to 1990, with the obvious exceptions that nobody wants to see a return to Jim Crow, official suppression of homosexuality, or male chauvinism. Decisions made earlier against such are as likely to remain intact as the standing of the music that I mentioned above. Well, we're not going to tear up our Interstates in favor of restoring the old Blood Alleys that we used to have; we are not going to re-introduce polio, and we are not going to abandon personal computers, either. "Junk" culture has a way of dying... and must. depravity has never served Humanity well.

A Crisis Era has a way of focusing objectives from chaos to order. The last stage (and do not be fooled) decides which vision of the future will prevail. The Hard Right would love to establish an America that is a fundamentalist-Protestant version of Franco's Spain in which right-wing clerics establish what is moral and the economy is plutocratic in the extreme, with high technology dedicated to military prowess, repression of dissent, and a service-based economy built upon super-cheap labor that makes the country a great place to visit on a holiday (with high real pay earned somewhere else) but a dreadful place to live. Intellectual life is reduced to praise for the Franco-like Leader who ensures that he is the worldly version of the One from Whom all blessings flow. The other vision is that we have something more like Adenauer's Germany, if without the shame of having to lament horrible deeds and without the memories of smoking and shattered ruins.

Free markets have their merits, but they are not enough. We need to break the crony capitalism behind neoliberal economics once and for all. We need to revitalize places that have recently been abandoned in an age in which importing is cheaper than manufacturing. No nation has ever prospered by importing its luxuries -- and that includes flat-screen TV's, i-devices, cars, and men's suits. A veneer of sybaritic excess among elites that depends upon mass poverty to intensify elite indulgence is possible even in some of the poorest countries.

The true test of how prosperous a country is is not how well the economic elites live but instead how well people who do much the same things anywhere (like barbers, carpenters, or schoolteachers) do.

[Eric the Green]

(04-05-2022, 05:52 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: It's hard to see anything 2T-like about this time except for institutional failure. The fullest danger of a 4T is likely past.  A successful 4T does not end in picking and choosing what 3T characteristics to preserve. Most of those must die. The ephemeral fads are not the sorts of things that become 'classics'.  Maybe we have enshrined some 3T music, literature, and art from the second-to-last Saeculum, but that is on the truly high end of achievement. In music, Bartok's violin concerto, Gershwin's Piano Concerto in F, Prokofiev's third piano concerto  as well as late Puccini would fit well into any time.

Politics of the 3T leading into the Great Depression and Second World War created much of the mess, and I hardly need go into the details. Neoliberal ideology may not be as horrible as fascism (including the Second KKK) and bolshevism, but all that it could ever achieve is the impoverishment of the vast majority on behalf of an economic elite that already has more than anyone can justify. America needs a new version of a New Deal, a Marshall Plan for the poor. Let's get this straight: although individual poverty may be the result of perverse choices and tragic misfortunes, mass poverty in an era of unusually-high productivity and technology that would have been a dream for anyone whose lifespan might have been eighty years ending around 1960, mass poverty can only be the result of perverse decisions from On High. Someone stupid enough to fritter away a fortune as a high-roller has shown that he deserves poverty.

Americans will soon as a whole will have a temperament better suited to 1950 than to 1990, with the obvious exceptions that nobody wants to see a return to Jim Crow, official suppression of homosexuality, or male chauvinism. Decisions made earlier against such are as likely to remain intact as the standing of the music that I mentioned above. Well, we're not going to tear up our Interstates in favor of restoring the old Blood Alleys that we used to have; we are not going to re-introduce polio, and we are not going to abandon personal computers, either. "Junk" culture has a way of dying... and must. depravity has never served Humanity well.

A Crisis Era has a way of focusing objectives from chaos to order. The last stage (and do not be fooled) decides which vision of the future will prevail. The Hard Right would love to establish an America that is a fundamentalist-Protestant version of Franco's Spain in which right-wing clerics establish what is moral and the economy is plutocratic in the extreme, with high technology dedicated to military prowess, repression of dissent, and a service-based economy built upon super-cheap labor that makes the country a great place to visit on a holiday (with high real pay earned somewhere else) but a dreadful place to live. Intellectual life is reduced to praise for the Franco-like Leader who ensures that he is the worldly version of the One from Whom all blessings flow.  The other vision is that we have something more like Adenauer's Germany, if without the shame of having to lament horrible deeds and without the memories of smoking and shattered ruins.

Free markets have their merits, but they are not enough. We need to break the crony capitalism behind neoliberal economics once and for all. We need to revitalize places that have recently been abandoned in an age in which importing is cheaper than manufacturing. No nation has ever prospered by importing its luxuries -- and that includes flat-screen TV's, i-devices, cars, and men's suits. A veneer of sybaritic excess among elites that depends upon mass poverty to intensify elite indulgence is  possible even in some of the poorest countries.

The true test of how prosperous a country is is not how well the economic elites live but instead how well people who do much the same things anywhere (like barbers, carpenters, or schoolteachers) do.

We need so many changes if we are going to return to progress that benefits most people. As of now, one senator stands in the way of a good start. That is an egregious situation. At a minimum we should write to Sen Manchin and remind him of the consequences of his inaction, even if he does not listen or respond. If Manchin does not act this month, it appears to me that we are putting ourselves in maximum danger of a totally-failed 4T, and if that happens this will mean people on Earth will never see anything like a circa-1950 mood ever again.

[pbrower2a]

Just as important -- and it would make Senator Manchin's dalliance with the GOP irrelevant -- is to elect Democrats to the US Senate from Pennsylvania (by all accounts Democrats have the advantage here) and Wisconsin (I have seen little, but Senator Ron Johnson may be losing his welcome from Wisconsin voters. Oh yes -- and re-elect every Democrat running for re-election to the US Senate.

I have little question that the reactionaries would turn America into a political Hell. With the tools of repression (a Trump-inspired secret police) and deflection (FoX News as the norm) and some horrible rulings by the US Supreme Court on LGBT and reproductive rights, we could have our entire heritage of freedom gutted. Trump nominated three stooges for the US Supreme Court, three who believe that stare decisis is less important to judicial findiings than is some canned ideology.

Little is so profitable as overpopulation. it means high rents and low wages, and the ever-present fear of hunger. Sure,. starving masses are not efficient, creative, or happy; with enough people living in adequate fear the elites can make up on volume what is lost in the quality of output. But the profitability of overpopulation is parallel to any prosperity whose foundation is misery.

Aside from the obvious disasters of a nearby supernova or gamma-ray burst, a supervolcano eruption (Toba around 70,000 BCE, which reduced the human population to about 10,000 worldwide), the worst danger to America is overpopulation. Such will first destroy the assumptions that we have made in complacency and then turn this country into a hell. Overpopulation will begin with a population explosion, which will most likely result from a ctive promotion of natalist policies that include bands on abortion, contraception, and homosexuality.

If you were thinking of global warming --- overpopulation is its most likely vehicle. At this point, zero population growth is necessary for keeping America as we understand it. We are likely past the peak of power consumption per capita (and power consumption of any kind, even of "green" energy results in waste heat that will warm the Earth's atmosphere and put the strongest variable component of greenhouse gases -- water vapor -- into the atmosphere. Raise the temperature over any large body of water, and the wet-bulb temperature (the most reliable measure of comfort above about 10C) rises. People are not using more energy per person now than they did about thirty years ago, at least in the USA. Any growth in fuel consumption in America is the result of po9pulation growth.

The nexus between energy consumption and global warming is that any energy use -- even of 'green' energy -- results in waste heat that warms the atmosphere. That means that the atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapor, and water vapor is the strongest common gas for contributing to global warming.

[Eric the Green]

For that to matter next year, the Democrats also need to keep their majority in the House. The point seems to be that it doesn't look too good given the poll numbers, so we've got to keep pressure up on Manchin to support Biden's program now and hope against hope he listens, as that may be our last chance to get anything going on the progress we need. I do think BBBBB has to pass if we are to avoid a bad economy now. The end of neoliberalism is needed, and if it happened the economy would do well in the 2020s. If not, then the pressures of inflation and sanctions could drive us into a recession.

[David Horn]

(04-05-2022, 12:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We need so many changes if we are going to return to progress that benefits most people. As of now, one senator stands in the way of a good start. That is an egregious situation. At a minimum we should write to Sen Manchin and remind him of the consequences of his inaction, even if he does not listen or respond. If Manchin does not act this month, it appears to me that we are putting ourselves in maximum danger of a totally-failed 4T, and if that happens this will mean people on Earth will never see anything like a circa-1950 mood ever again.

I'm certainly no fan of Joe Manchin, but he's a hard nut to crack.  His wealth and the vast majority of his income are due to his ownership stake in a coal brokerage.  Do you have a solution for that?  I don't.  So progress needs to pass around not through him.

So let's look elsewhere.  Currently, we have a crazy party that has zealous subjects and a wishy-washy sane party that has mild support.  The zealots will vote, ; we know that.  The only path forward requires the crazy party to go all-in on full-on crazy, so the mild support on the left is scared to the polls out of fear.  That may happen, but don't bet your house on it.  Barring that, we're in for a long and depressing haul.

[beechnut79]

(04-06-2022, 10:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-05-2022, 12:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We need so many changes if we are going to return to progress that benefits most people. As of now, one senator stands in the way of a good start. That is an egregious situation. At a minimum we should write to Sen Manchin and remind him of the consequences of his inaction, even if he does not listen or respond. If Manchin does not act this month, it appears to me that we are putting ourselves in maximum danger of a totally-failed 4T, and if that happens this will mean people on Earth will never see anything like a circa-1950 mood ever again.

I'm certainly no fan of Joe Manchin, but he's a hard nut to crack.  His wealth and the vast majority of his income are due to his ownership stake in a coal brokerage.  Do you have a solution for that?  I don't.  So progress needs to pass around not through him.

So let's look elsewhere.  Currently, we have a crazy party that has zealous subjects and a wishy-washy sane party that has mild support.  The zealots will vote, ; we know that.  The only path forward requires the crazy party to go all-in on full-on crazy, so the mild support on the left is scared to the polls out of fear.  That may happen, but don't bet your house on it.  Barring that, we're in for a long and depressing haul.

For posterity, could we possibly take a lesson from ancient Rome? Meaning, are a lot of us, perhaps even the majority, the equivalent of Nero who supposedly fiddled while Rome burned?

[David Horn]

(04-06-2022, 12:43 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(04-06-2022, 10:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-05-2022, 12:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We need so many changes if we are going to return to progress that benefits most people. As of now, one senator stands in the way of a good start. That is an egregious situation. At a minimum we should write to Sen Manchin and remind him of the consequences of his inaction, even if he does not listen or respond. If Manchin does not act this month, it appears to me that we are putting ourselves in maximum danger of a totally-failed 4T, and if that happens this will mean people on Earth will never see anything like a circa-1950 mood ever again.

I'm certainly no fan of Joe Manchin, but he's a hard nut to crack.  His wealth and the vast majority of his income are due to his ownership stake in a coal brokerage.  Do you have a solution for that?  I don't.  So progress needs to pass around not through him.

So let's look elsewhere.  Currently, we have a crazy party that has zealous subjects and a wishy-washy sane party that has mild support.  The zealots will vote, ; we know that.  The only path forward requires the crazy party to go all-in on full-on crazy, so the mild support on the left is scared to the polls out of fear.  That may happen, but don't bet your house on it.  Barring that, we're in for a long and depressing haul.

For posterity, could we possibly take a lesson from ancient Rome? Meaning, are a lot of us, perhaps even the majority, the equivalent of Nero who supposedly fiddled while Rome burned?

H-m-m-m.  Apparently, even Nero wasn't really 'Nero'.  Legends, good and bad, are rarely accurate in full and wildly crazy as often as not.  

That said, are we all responsible for things as they are and not doing enough to make changes?  Yes, but a little perspective is in order.  Other than people we know, who can we really influence?  I've tried writing editorials to my local paper, gotten many published and had no noticeable impact.  Yes, I got positive feedback, but those comments came from the choir.  I can't think of any case where I've changed anyone's mind -- even here on this and other forums I've been involved with over the years.  And direct action seems to create greater not less opposition (witness BLM outside the true-believer community).

I'm convinced that minds only change when the continued belief in something has a large enough negative impact on the believer, that continuing that belief is personally threatening in some way.  Even then, we have COVID survivors who refused to get vaccinated, got horribly sick, recovered in time and still refuse the vaccine.  Are political beliefs more susceptible to change?  I doubt it.  Assume that strife is in the offing and unavoidable.  And we may not be around to share in it when it happens.

[JasonBlack]

(11-22-2021, 04:04 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-21-2021, 09:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: There has been Full-On Republican and Republican Lite for the past 40 years.  That doesn't change easily.  Yes, the more engaged can see through the fog, but the 90% who just live their lives don't really care.  To them, politics is an issue so far down their priority list, it only gets attention during big elections -- POTUS being the most common ones.  At the same time, they hold office holders responsible for everything from the weather to unfriendly neighbors.  There's no mandate for rationality.

It will take a hard hit in the gut to realign their thought processes.  Millennials have already had a punch or two, so they're already wary.  The older gens are too insolated and the come-to-Jesus moment still needs to happen for them.

Millennial adults are all old enough to remember two events -- the botched response to Hurricane Katrina and of course the economic meltdown of 2007-2009 which looks much like the first half of the economic meltdown of 1929-1932. If they can remember Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath they can also recall the speculative frenzy that initiated the meltdown of 2007-2009. Well-targeted use of the federal budget can solve another meltdown.

The Millennial Generation is unlikely to expect miracles from On High to solve their problems. Other generations may believe such out of faith (Boomers) or desperation (X). They have tried their formulas for supernatural miracles with no success. 

Note well that although Millennial adults have been slow to reach high political office, probably because the Silent and early-wave Boomers have held onto power longer than usual due to longevity, they are starting to reach nigh public office. To be sure there is but one Millennial in the US Senate (Jon Ossoff), such may be approaching the end. The Millennial constituency is still growing in public life. 

Civic generations typically get early starts in high public office in contrast to Adaptive generations (Progressive, Silent) and Reactive (Lost, X). What is different is that people in high positions have every cause to stay in or near the apex of power if they can live to old age without losing their ability to perform the functions of the job. The pay is great; the work is cerebral; the working conditions are excellent. Why quit? 

But -- Millennial pols may far better understand the interests of fellow Millennial adults, all of whom are of voting age. Even the oldest of their net-senior generation have reached 60, like Barack Obama. (By the way -- I don't see his career in public life over. Supreme Court?)
Millennial adults do not whine about their plight, but they will be receptive to one of their own who has logical solutions to their problems and who make coherent promises to fit their hopes.

I share many of your sentiments here. Personally I think the best way forward is for millennials to become "The Builder Generation". It's one of the only things conservative and liberal millennials can really hold hands on, and just about the only way we can muster any kind of collective confidence to help the country get back on its feet. It won't be the swift, dramatic, heroic victory of the GIs (imo, most people into S&H theory have only read The 4th Turning and over-emphasize the previous saeculum as if it was the norm, rather than one iteration of the cycle from which to observe broader trends).

[Eric the Green]

(04-06-2022, 10:38 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-05-2022, 12:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: We need so many changes if we are going to return to progress that benefits most people. As of now, one senator stands in the way of a good start. That is an egregious situation. At a minimum we should write to Sen Manchin and remind him of the consequences of his inaction, even if he does not listen or respond. If Manchin does not act this month, it appears to me that we are putting ourselves in maximum danger of a totally-failed 4T, and if that happens this will mean people on Earth will never see anything like a circa-1950 mood ever again.

I'm certainly no fan of Joe Manchin, but he's a hard nut to crack.  His wealth and the vast majority of his income are due to his ownership stake in a coal brokerage.  Do you have a solution for that?  I don't.  So progress needs to pass around not through him.

So let's look elsewhere.  Currently, we have a crazy party that has zealous subjects and a wishy-washy sane party that has mild support.  The zealots will vote, ; we know that.  The only path forward requires the crazy party to go all-in on full-on crazy, so the mild support on the left is scared to the polls out of fear.  That may happen, but don't bet your house on it.  Barring that, we're in for a long and depressing haul.

Probably, but I am pessimistic about any such Left support in the midterms this year. I have little or no hope for any recovery from such a long and depressing haul. I see such now as never ending, and place no hope in a future prophet generation that will probably never arrive. We can't blow a turning so badly as we are blowing this one, and mostly just because of one senator, and expect future generations to be able to pick up after us, especially from a situation from which we only have 3 years to avert total catastrophe.

I am encouraged that Manchin had agreed to the current climate change provisions in BBBBB. His other reasons for stalling may be just a cover for stopping it, but since he's our only hope, I see no alternative but to write to him and pressure him.

[pbrower2a]

(04-07-2022, 12:00 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:

(11-22-2021, 04:04 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-21-2021, 09:10 AM)David Horn Wrote: There has been Full-On Republican and Republican Lite for the past 40 years.  That doesn't change easily.  Yes, the more engaged can see through the fog, but the 90% who just live their lives don't really care.  To them, politics is an issue so far down their priority list, it only gets attention during big elections -- POTUS being the most common ones.  At the same time, they hold office holders responsible for everything from the weather to unfriendly neighbors.  There's no mandate for rationality.

It will take a hard hit in the gut to realign their thought processes.  Millennials have already had a punch or two, so they're already wary.  The older gens are too insolated and the come-to-Jesus moment still needs to happen for them.

Millennial adults are all old enough to remember two events -- the botched response to Hurricane Katrina and of course the economic meltdown of 2007-2009 which looks much like the first half of the economic meltdown of 1929-1932. If they can remember Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath they can also recall the speculative frenzy that initiated the meltdown of 2007-2009. Well-targeted use of the federal budget can solve another meltdown.

The Millennial Generation is unlikely to expect miracles from On High to solve their problems. Other generations may believe such out of faith (Boomers) or desperation (X). They have tried their formulas for supernatural miracles with no success. 

Note well that although Millennial adults have been slow to reach high political office, probably because the Silent and early-wave Boomers have held onto power longer than usual due to longevity, they are starting to reach nigh public office. To be sure there is but one Millennial in the US Senate (Jon Ossoff), such may be approaching the end. The Millennial constituency is still growing in public life. 

Civic generations typically get early starts in high public office in contrast to Adaptive generations (Progressive, Silent) and Reactive (Lost, X). What is different is that people in high positions have every cause to stay in or near the apex of power if they can live to old age without losing their ability to perform the functions of the job. The pay is great; the work is cerebral; the working conditions are excellent. Why quit? 

But -- Millennial pols may far better understand the interests of fellow Millennial adults, all of whom are of voting age. Even the oldest of their net-senior generation have reached 60, like Barack Obama. (By the way -- I don't see his career in public life over. Supreme Court?)
Millennial adults do not whine about their plight, but they will be receptive to one of their own who has logical solutions to their problems and who make coherent promises to fit their hopes.

I share many of your sentiments here. Personally I think the best way forward is for millennials to become "The Builder Generation". It's one of the only things conservative and liberal millennials can really hold hands on, and just about the only way we can muster any kind of collective confidence to help the country get back on its feet. It won't be the swift, dramatic, heroic victory of the GIs (imo, most people into S&H theory have only read The 4th Turning and over-emphasize the previous saeculum as if it was the norm, rather than one iteration of the cycle from which to observe broader trends).

Millennials will be as much re-builders as builders. They are unlikely to show sentimentality even to GI constructions that have met or surpassed their expected service life -- even if they admire the GI's who built them. I'm tempted to believe that huge swaths of GI-built "starter" homes will give way to huge blocks of high-density housing if housing is to be affordable. I can only hope that such is more attractive than the Stalinist architecture that prevails when construction must be cheap and swift, with ugly blandness as a result. Housing built for a population of 150 million is inadequate for a population of 350 million. Even without the ideology, Stalinist architecture (think of the Pruitt-Igoe Towers) dehumanizes people. 

We will need to disperse the American population, especially back to places that in recent times have faced economic ruin. Why not revive places like Detroit, Flint, Dayton, Youngstown,  St. Louis, Peoria, Muncie, and South Bend? Detroit, when the center of the auto industry (arguably a good analogue to Silicon Valley in its time)  attracted people from around the world when the auto industry was the High Tech of its time. Let's not forget that much of the high technology goes into vehicles these days.

[JasonBlack]

(04-07-2022, 02:55 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Millennials will be as much re-builders as builders. They are unlikely to show sentimentality even to GI constructions that have met or surpassed their expected service life -- even if they admire the GI's who built them. I'm tempted to believe that huge swaths of GI-built "starter" homes will give way to huge blocks of high-density housing if housing is to be affordable. I can only hope that such is more attractive than the Stalinist architecture that prevails when construction must be cheap and swift, with ugly blandness as a result. Housing built for a population of 150 million is inadequate for a population of 350 million. Even without the ideology, Stalinist architecture (think of the Pruitt-Igoe Towers) dehumanizes people.

I don't think most millennials outside of the historically minded really think much about the GIs, so that much isn't surprising (if anything, I think generational cycles repeat precisely because of this lost-to-history tendency of the most recent elder generation). Needless to say, we share the same hopes there.

Quote:We will need to disperse the American population, especially back to places that in recent times have faced economic ruin. Why not revive places like Detroit, Flint, Dayton, Youngstown,  St. Louis, Peoria, Muncie, and South Bend? Detroit, when the center of the auto industry (arguably a good analogue to Silicon Valley in its time)  attracted people from around the world when the auto industry was the High Tech of its time. Let's not forget that much of the high technology goes into vehicles these days.

I foresee some exciting infrastructure projects overseen by millennials. They may very well redeem themselves in my eyes if they can pull this off without the confiscatory taxes of the previous 4T and 1T.