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Anyone who takes a few steps back to view both our domestic situation as well as the international situation should be greatly alarmed. Domestically, the supports for national unity are at their weakest in my lifetime - now past a half century. The so called "Alt-Right" have steered or have been steered into a pathos that is surprising in a nation that so prides itself in being different and separate from Europe. The "Alt-Right" are now no different from the various European Extreme Right movements, which, to be blunt, are no different from the "pan" movements of the early to middle 20th Century. It is one of the most shocking things of my life experience thus far to be witnessing this. I write this as one who, a mere ten years ago, railed against both the liberals as well as the Establishment conservatives. I hereby apologize for whatever role that might have had in terms of catalyzing some dire unintended consequences.
Meanwhile, internationally, the long standing post-WW2 order, whatever were its faults, has now vanished. Sure there are still some false front buildings akin to a poorly constructed Spaghetti Western set, such as the UN, the EU, and various other attempts at international order. But these are no longer respected, most especially by the Shang Hai Cooperation Org countries and various client and affiliated rogue states thereof. NATO still seems vital, in affront to this trend. Long may it last. It would be a crime to allow it to disintegrate, only to have to be reconstructed in some fashion, hastily, during a future darkest hour, under threat of being defeated by Evil.
Then, there is the matter of Russian interference in our election. This knits together the two aforementioned venues of crisis. Moscow are no longer trying to hide their intentions. Moscow have lined up behind the 21st Century Quisling, hoping to neutralize the one great power truly capable of stopping the SCO advance. In their wildest dreams, the US would even go beyond neutrality, and become a member of the Axis of Evil.
Suffice it to say, as we approach one of the greatest decision points ever encountered in US history, I feel a deep sense of foreboding. No matter what the outcome on Tuesday, I believe forces have already been unleashed, both domestically and internationally, that can only lead us further into the abyss. It's too late to turn back now. God Bless us all.
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(11-04-2016, 09:27 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Anyone who takes a few steps back to view both our domestic situation as well as the international situation should be greatly alarmed. Domestically, the supports for national unity are at their weakest in my lifetime - now past a half century. The so called "Alt-Right" have steered or have been steered into a pathos that is surprising in a nation that so prides itself in being different and separate from Europe. The "Alt-Right" are now no different from the various European Extreme Right movements, which, to be blunt, are no different from the "pan" movements of the early to middle 20th Century. It is one of the most shocking things of my life experience thus far to be witnessing this. I write this as one who, a mere ten years ago, railed against both the liberals as well as the Establishment conservatives. I hereby apologize for whatever role that might have had in terms of catalyzing some dire unintended consequences.
Meanwhile, internationally, the long standing post-WW2 order, whatever were its faults, has now vanished. Sure there are still some false front buildings akin to a poorly constructed Spaghetti Western set, such as the UN, the EU, and various other attempts at international order. But these are no longer respected, most especially by the Shang Hai Cooperation Org countries and various client and affiliated rogue states thereof. NATO still seems vital, in affront to this trend. Long may it last. It would be a crime to allow it to disintegrate, only to have to be reconstructed in some fashion, hastily, during a future darkest hour, under threat of being defeated by Evil.
Then, there is the matter of Russian interference in our election. This knits together the two aforementioned venues of crisis. Moscow are no longer trying to hide their intentions. Moscow have lined up behind the 21st Century Quisling, hoping to neutralize the one great power truly capable of stopping the SCO advance. In their wildest dreams, the US would even go beyond neutrality, and become a member of the Axis of Evil.
Suffice it to say, as we approach one of the greatest decision points ever encountered in US history, I feel a deep sense of foreboding. No matter what the outcome on Tuesday, I believe forces have already been unleashed, both domestically and internationally, that can only lead us further into the abyss. It's too late to turn back now. God Bless us all.
NATO vital? You must be kidding.
Speaking of nationalist movements, Putin seems to have created one in Russia that has gotten out of his hands:
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia...w-s-making
Don't blame yourself, though. These movements are direct reactions to neoliberal elitism.
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11-05-2016, 09:17 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2016, 09:24 AM by FLBones.)
Things will get crazier now that the Silents are rapidly dying out and losing their influence over public life. Their patience and pluralism is being replaced by the preachy and moralistic Boomers. The next ten years will be peak times for the Boomers, this will be their time to really prove themselves before they start to exit out of the picture in about 10 years when we enter the High.
On the flip side, we also have the Millennials starting to enter the picture. By 2020, the Millies are really going to start to have some power over public life. As the 2020s progress, things are going to change drastically. The current system will be replaced by something new and one that favors the Millennials and the Homies and the next Prophets to an extent. The legalization of marijuana is a foreshadow of things to come. I also think marijuana will be a major next industry in the 1T.
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(11-05-2016, 09:17 AM)FLBones Wrote: Things will get crazier now that the Silents are rapidly dying out and losing their influence over public life. Their patience and pluralism is being replaced by the preachy and moralistic Boomers. The next ten years will be peak times for the Boomers, this will be their time to really prove themselves before they start to exit out of the picture in about 10 years when we enter the High.
On the flip side, we also have the Millennials starting to enter the picture. By 2020, the Millies are really going to start to have some power over public life. As the 2020s progress, things are going to change drastically. The current system will be replaced by something new and one that favors the Millennials and the Homies and the next Prophets to an extent. The legalization of marijuana is a foreshadow of things to come. I also think marijuana will be a major next industry in the 1T.
So you believe Generation X has/will have no influence at all? If the 1925-1942 born among us are the "Silent" Generation, we must be the "Invisible" one.
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(11-06-2016, 11:58 AM)gabrielle Wrote: (11-05-2016, 09:17 AM)FLBones Wrote: Things will get crazier now that the Silents are rapidly dying out and losing their influence over public life. Their patience and pluralism is being replaced by the preachy and moralistic Boomers. The next ten years will be peak times for the Boomers, this will be their time to really prove themselves before they start to exit out of the picture in about 10 years when we enter the High.
On the flip side, we also have the Millennials starting to enter the picture. By 2020, the Millies are really going to start to have some power over public life. As the 2020s progress, things are going to change drastically. The current system will be replaced by something new and one that favors the Millennials and the Homies and the next Prophets to an extent. The legalization of marijuana is a foreshadow of things to come. I also think marijuana will be a major next industry in the 1T.
So you believe Generation X has/will have no influence at all? If the 1925-1942 born among us are the "Silent" Generation, we must be the "Invisible" one.
Not bad. Generation X would probably best be described as the Ignored Generation.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken
If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action. -- Ludwig von Mises
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(11-06-2016, 11:58 AM)gabrielle Wrote: (11-05-2016, 09:17 AM)FLBones Wrote: Things will get crazier now that the Silents are rapidly dying out and losing their influence over public life. Their patience and pluralism is being replaced by the preachy and moralistic Boomers. The next ten years will be peak times for the Boomers, this will be their time to really prove themselves before they start to exit out of the picture in about 10 years when we enter the High.
On the flip side, we also have the Millennials starting to enter the picture. By 2020, the Millies are really going to start to have some power over public life. As the 2020s progress, things are going to change drastically. The current system will be replaced by something new and one that favors the Millennials and the Homies and the next Prophets to an extent. The legalization of marijuana is a foreshadow of things to come. I also think marijuana will be a major next industry in the 1T.
So you believe Generation X has/will have no influence at all? If the 1925-1942 born among us are the "Silent" Generation, we must be the "Invisible" one.
As a substitute school teacher some years ago, I noticed the creativity of Generation X. I go into Mexican restaurants and often find an interesting mural (most likely by someone who sees himself as another Diego Rivera, a Lost creator)... and I can only imagine what sort of mural could be made in for some purpose other than creating ambience in a restaurant. Howe and Strauss underestimated the creative talent of Reactive generations, thus ignoring the likes of Prokofiev, Copland, Poulenc, Rivera, Chagall, Miro, Elot, Tolkien, O'Keefe, Beckmann, Erte, etc.
Know well that like the Lost, the early 'bad boys' of Generation X will either mellow out, destroy themselves, or go into oblivion. Of obvious importance will be the X administrators and entrepreneurs whose economic activity will (1) initiate on a small scale what later generations do on a bigger scale, and (2) create the material foundation for any successful struggle in a Crisis war.
Generation X must ditch the alienation that at best achieves nothing and at turns success into failure by turning the resources of a prosperous society to an evil cause. Fascists and Stalinist enforcers largely contemporaries of the American Lost generation came close to destroying our civilization. That includes David Curtis Stevenson, a charismatic Grand Dragon of the Ku Klux Klan who has remarkable parallels to Adolf Hitler.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(11-07-2016, 12:14 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (11-06-2016, 11:58 AM)gabrielle Wrote: (11-05-2016, 09:17 AM)FLBones Wrote: Things will get crazier now that the Silents are rapidly dying out and losing their influence over public life. Their patience and pluralism is being replaced by the preachy and moralistic Boomers. The next ten years will be peak times for the Boomers, this will be their time to really prove themselves before they start to exit out of the picture in about 10 years when we enter the High.
On the flip side, we also have the Millennials starting to enter the picture. By 2020, the Millies are really going to start to have some power over public life. As the 2020s progress, things are going to change drastically. The current system will be replaced by something new and one that favors the Millennials and the Homies and the next Prophets to an extent. The legalization of marijuana is a foreshadow of things to come. I also think marijuana will be a major next industry in the 1T.
So you believe Generation X has/will have no influence at all? If the 1925-1942 born among us are the "Silent" Generation, we must be the "Invisible" one.
As a substitute school teacher some years ago, I noticed the creativity of Generation X. I go into Mexican restaurants and often find an interesting mural (most likely by someone who sees himself as another Diego Rivera, a Lost creator)... and I can only imagine what sort of mural could be made in for some purpose other than creating ambience in a restaurant. Howe and Strauss underestimated the creative talent of Reactive generations, thus ignoring the likes of Prokofiev, Copland, Poulenc, Rivera, Chagall, Miro, Elot, Tolkien, O'Keefe, Beckmann, Erte, etc.
Know well that like the Lost, the early 'bad boys' of Generation X will either mellow out, destroy themselves, or go into oblivion. Of obvious importance will be the X administrators and entrepreneurs whose economic activity will (1) initiate on a small scale what later generations do on a bigger scale, and (2) create the material foundation for any successful struggle in a Crisis war.
Generation X must ditch the alienation that at best achieves nothing and at turns success into failure by turning the resources of a prosperous society to an evil cause. Fascists and Stalinist enforcers largely contemporaries of the American Lost generation came close to destroying our civilization. That includes David Curtis Stevenson, a charismatic Grand Dragon of the Ku Klux Klan who has remarkable parallels to Adolf Hitler.
Yes, there are evil ones among us nomad generations. The Lost had Klan leader David Curtis Stevenson, true, but it also had Earl Warren, the Chief Justice whose court pronounced segregation illegal and made other landmark decisions protecting the rights of citizens.
I think the alienation, the lone wolf mentality, serves us well in some ways. It makes us flexible and inventive. Nomads are a transitional generation, more than others, I think--bridging the old order and the new. That is our purpose, during a 4T. Yes, the prophets are the dreamers of the new world, the civics the heroes who sacrifice themselves for the cause, but it is the nomads who are making the decisions on the ground--the ones brainstorming to create actionable plans for the new world that must be created. It is a difficult task.
It would be nice if we got a little credit, is all I'm saying I guess.
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Given the vitriol on both sides, and the blatant nonsense and threats which the political right believes and promotes about Hillary and other liberals, I think foreboding about the next 10 years is warranted.
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(11-07-2016, 11:55 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: (11-07-2016, 12:14 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (11-06-2016, 11:58 AM)gabrielle Wrote: (11-05-2016, 09:17 AM)FLBones Wrote: Things will get crazier now that the Silents are rapidly dying out and losing their influence over public life. Their patience and pluralism is being replaced by the preachy and moralistic Boomers. The next ten years will be peak times for the Boomers, this will be their time to really prove themselves before they start to exit out of the picture in about 10 years when we enter the High.
On the flip side, we also have the Millennials starting to enter the picture. By 2020, the Millies are really going to start to have some power over public life. As the 2020s progress, things are going to change drastically. The current system will be replaced by something new and one that favors the Millennials and the Homies and the next Prophets to an extent. The legalization of marijuana is a foreshadow of things to come. I also think marijuana will be a major next industry in the 1T.
So you believe Generation X has/will have no influence at all? If the 1925-1942 born among us are the "Silent" Generation, we must be the "Invisible" one.
As a substitute school teacher some years ago, I noticed the creativity of Generation X. I go into Mexican restaurants and often find an interesting mural (most likely by someone who sees himself as another Diego Rivera, a Lost creator)... and I can only imagine what sort of mural could be made in for some purpose other than creating ambience in a restaurant. Howe and Strauss underestimated the creative talent of Reactive generations, thus ignoring the likes of Prokofiev, Copland, Poulenc, Rivera, Chagall, Miro, Elot, Tolkien, O'Keefe, Beckmann, Erte, etc.
Know well that like the Lost, the early 'bad boys' of Generation X will either mellow out, destroy themselves, or go into oblivion. Of obvious importance will be the X administrators and entrepreneurs whose economic activity will (1) initiate on a small scale what later generations do on a bigger scale, and (2) create the material foundation for any successful struggle in a Crisis war.
Generation X must ditch the alienation that at best achieves nothing and at turns success into failure by turning the resources of a prosperous society to an evil cause. Fascists and Stalinist enforcers largely contemporaries of the American Lost generation came close to destroying our civilization. That includes David Curtis Stevenson, a charismatic Grand Dragon of the Ku Klux Klan who has remarkable parallels to Adolf Hitler.
I have ditched my alienation and walk through the mountain pass along side the up and coming Civics. Into the Valley of Death we will stride, onward, onward ... there is a higher mission. Our own lives are not that important.
So, was your turn from the darkness to the light as drastic as Glenn Beck's? 
"Obama made me a better man"
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Beck hasn't quite turned far enough. He doesn't support Hillary Clinton. I'm sure he's still hanging on to the Reagan mythology.
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I have nothing but foreboding for the Presidency of Donald Trump. Demagogues never make good on their promises even with a stooge legislature behind them.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(11-07-2016, 05:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Given the vitriol on both sides, and the blatant nonsense and threats which the political right believes and promotes about Hillary and other liberals, I think foreboding about the next 10 years is warranted.
And my goodness, even more warranted now.
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(11-06-2016, 11:12 PM)Galen Wrote: Not bad. Generation X would probably best be described as the Ignored Generation.
And millennials are a failure so far.
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(11-09-2016, 04:04 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (11-06-2016, 11:12 PM)Galen Wrote: Not bad. Generation X would probably best be described as the Ignored Generation.
And millennials are a failure so far.
That remains to be seen.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken
If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action. -- Ludwig von Mises
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(11-09-2016, 05:11 AM)Galen Wrote: (11-09-2016, 04:04 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (11-06-2016, 11:12 PM)Galen Wrote: Not bad. Generation X would probably best be described as the Ignored Generation.
And millennials are a failure so far.
That remains to be seen.
That's why I said so far. But they failed tonight; that we disagree on.
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12-02-2016, 12:34 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2016, 12:45 AM by Eric the Green.)
(12-01-2016, 11:35 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Sometimes, the simplest model is the best.
We tend to get wrapped around the axle here trying to discern the crisis.
Was the Great Recession and its jobless recovery aftermath the Crisis, or the beginning of it? Perhaps. But I think we all sense that the real worst of it has yet to arrive. I think we now have the parameters for a perfect storm.
Firstly, unless one is blinded by political partisanship, it is apparent that come 2017 we will enter into a leadership crisis the likes of which we have not seen in the US at least since Nixon's fall, and I will state, even much longer than that.
Trump has spent 50 years in a business space where bullshit is king, bluster the norm, and sleaziness accepted. It is a space where true leadership, process expertise, attention to detail, and good management skills, are not expected. Meanwhile he has zero experience with public leadership. Beyond all this, it's quite apparent that he has one or more personality disorders. A man like this is destined to collapse like a wet paper bag, during the inevitable "3AM call" situations that will haunt him.
Meanwhile, a cult like sea of followers and fellow travelers are geared up to "tear down the Establishment." What will they do when his naked highness falls apart? There is nothing worse than an angry leaderless mob that has authoritarian impulses.
However, this is just an overture. The real storm will be a combined global financial crisis and geopolitical crisis. While I don't agree with all the details he has laid out, John Xenakis' analysis of emerging threat vectors world wide on both the financial and geopolitical fronts are here for all to see. Flammable materials are everywhere and ignition is sure to happen.
This coming storm will be the Climax of the Crisis. The leadership void in the US and a number of other NATO countries will invite geopolitical adventurism by the enemies of the West. Millions upon millions will be harmed initially by financial pain and later by war. We are going to witness phenomena which have thus far been unknown in human history. The forces of a world unraveling meeting high tech and mass destruction weapons will be a cataclysm. A few decades from now there will be no doubt that a crisis - in fact, the mother of all crises, has occurred.
However, for this Crisis to demonstrate the Strauss and Howe cycle, it must be not only survivable, but lead to a more stable place in a 1T for lots of folks in many places.
Your post above is well-said. I think the problem may be that we forget what lies over the rainbow. Remember it was 1939 when Dorothy sang that, and she defeated the wicked witches of the East and West-- as did the USA shortly thereafter. And in the midst of the crisis Americans went to world fairs in 1939 and dreamed of the future.
The dreams were enunciated and strongly elaborated in the 2T, and I mean the core years not circa 1980. Unless we remember those, we will be lost in the storm without a rudder.
Know the realities, AND remember the dream. Remember the King, and the two young brothers.
Come on, people
Come on, children
Come on down to
The glory river
Gonna wash you up
And wash you down
Gonna lay the devil down
Gonna lay that devil down
Come on, people
Come on, children
There's a king
At the glory river
And the precious king
He loved the people to sing
Babes in the blinking sun
Sang We Shall Overcome
I got fury in my soul
Fury's gonna take me
To the glory goal
In my mind I can't
Study war no more
Save the people
Save the children
Save the country
Save the country
Come on, people
Come on, children
Come on down to
The glory river
Gonna wash you up
And wash you down
Gonna lay the devil down
Gonna lay that devil down
Come on, people
Sons and mothers
Keep the dream of
The two young brothers
Take that dream
And ride that dove
We could build the dream
With love, I know
We could build the dream
With love, I know
We could build the dream
With love, I know
We could build the dream
With love, I know
We could build the dream
With love, I know
We could build the
Dream with love
I got fury in my soul
Fury's gonna take me
To the glory goal
In my mind I can't
Study war no more
Save the people
Save the children
Save the country
Save the country
Save the country now
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(12-02-2016, 12:34 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: (12-01-2016, 11:35 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Sometimes, the simplest model is the best.
We tend to get wrapped around the axle here trying to discern the crisis.
Was the Great Recession and its jobless recovery aftermath the Crisis, or the beginning of it? Perhaps. But I think we all sense that the real worst of it has yet to arrive. I think we now have the parameters for a perfect storm.
Firstly, unless one is blinded by political partisanship, it is apparent that come 2017 we will enter into a leadership crisis the likes of which we have not seen in the US at least since Nixon's fall, and I will state, even much longer than that.
Trump has spent 50 years in a business space where bullshit is king, bluster the norm, and sleaziness accepted. It is a space where true leadership, process expertise, attention to detail, and good management skills, are not expected. Meanwhile he has zero experience with public leadership. Beyond all this, it's quite apparent that he has one or more personality disorders. A man like this is destined to collapse like a wet paper bag, during the inevitable "3AM call" situations that will haunt him.
Meanwhile, a cult like sea of followers and fellow travelers are geared up to "tear down the Establishment." What will they do when his naked highness falls apart? There is nothing worse than an angry leaderless mob that has authoritarian impulses.
However, this is just an overture. The real storm will be a combined global financial crisis and geopolitical crisis. While I don't agree with all the details he has laid out, John Xenakis' analysis of emerging threat vectors world wide on both the financial and geopolitical fronts are here for all to see. Flammable materials are everywhere and ignition is sure to happen.
This coming storm will be the Climax of the Crisis. The leadership void in the US and a number of other NATO countries will invite geopolitical adventurism by the enemies of the West. Millions upon millions will be harmed initially by financial pain and later by war. We are going to witness phenomena which have thus far been unknown in human history. The forces of a world unraveling meeting high tech and mass destruction weapons will be a cataclysm. A few decades from now there will be no doubt that a crisis - in fact, the mother of all crises, has occurred.
However, for this Crisis to demonstrate the Strauss and Howe cycle, it must be not only survivable, but lead to a more stable place in a 1T for lots of folks in many places.
Your post above is well-said. I think the problem may be that we forget what lies over the rainbow. Remember it was 1939 when Dorothy sang that, and she defeated the wicked witches of the East and West-- as did the USA shortly thereafter. And in the midst of the crisis Americans went to world fairs in 1939 and dreamed of the future.
...
I also think that was a well-written post ... and I too am far more pessimistic than I was even a few months ago ... I'm not saying everything is going to come apart at the seams, but if it were to, I suspect the intro would look an awful lot like this.
And re: Eric's post, maybe it's just semantics, but the 4T doesn't lead to a more stable 1T ... the stability of the 1T comes because 4T events will have reached such a frenetic level that they can't be sustained (think D-Day, or Grant's total war approach). So yes, there will be stability eventually, for those who are around to experience it.
The term survivable is interesting; not sure if there is a threshold tho. (90%? 50%? 1%?)
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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12-02-2016, 12:02 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2016, 04:23 PM by pbrower2a.)
(12-01-2016, 11:35 PM)_4AD_84 Wrote: Sometimes, the simplest model is the best.
We tend to get wrapped around the axle here trying to discern the crisis.
In a normally-operating animal-powered wagon, the axle keeps the wheels going in the same direction. In an engine-powered vehicle the axle transmits the motive force to the wheels. If the wheel goes off, then the vehicle breaks down whether it is an ox-cart or a Ferrari.
Quote:Was the Great Recession and its jobless recovery aftermath the Crisis, or the beginning of it? Perhaps. But I think we all sense that the real worst of it has yet to arrive. I think we now have the parameters for a perfect storm.
It was an immediate solution to prevent a Great Depression. It also allowed the most reactionary elements in America to recover before anyone else did and then use their economic power to stall any possibility of reforms not sought by those reactionary elements (especially the economic elitists). We need remember that the Great Depression, harsh as it was, took down the economic royalists and their political power. This recovery has enshrined the economic royalists on economic, if not cultural. matters.
If Boomer non-elites aren't so objectionable, the Boomer elites exemplify arrogance, selfishness, and ruthlessness to the extreme. Extreme narcissists (and narcissism looks like a 'moderate' form of sociopathy or psychopathy, both sharing a lack of empathy and extreme selfishness) and the evil personalities will always hurt the common man if given the chance.
This Crisis Era will end when the worst actors in American life either achieve crushing power (think of Franco's Spain, only with racism) or are dully removed from power. The next four years will decide this.
Quote:Firstly, unless one is blinded by political partisanship, it is apparent that come 2017 we will enter into a leadership crisis the likes of which we have not seen in the US at least since Nixon's fall, and I will state, even much longer than that.
Trump has spent 50 years in a business space where bullshit is king, bluster the norm, and sleaziness accepted. It is a space where true leadership, process expertise, attention to detail, and good management skills, are not expected. Meanwhile he has zero experience with public leadership. Beyond all this, it's quite apparent that he has one or more personality disorders. A man like this is destined to collapse like a wet paper bag, during the inevitable "3AM call" situations that will haunt him.
Nixon at the least had some tendencies as a reformer; the partisan divisions within American life then might have allowed Nixon to get much of his political agenda but not have allowed him to use his power to turn against his ideological brethren in the Democratic Party in the South. Senator Sam Ervin was about as conservative as Nixon -- he just would not let Nixon go after Democrats with dirty tricks. Donald Trump is not a politician. If you recall the late General Norman Schwartzkopf fielding a question on his assessment of Saddam Hussein after the First Gulf War (I do not have an exact quote):
Except for not being a good soldier, strategist, tactician, general, politician, diplomat, or statesman, he did okay...
with some laughter from the audience. That audience of journalists got it.
...even in a business setting, Donald Trump has been 'above' it all. He inherited his wealth and became basically a rentier, failing at everything except reality television (a questionable area of creativity that appears only because of plenty of network and programming time to fill cheaply). "True leadership" means giving subordinates cause to trust one. Eisenhower and Carter, both graduates of Service academies proved trustworthy, if at different levels of competence. "True leadership" means finding ways in which to avoid doing nasty things to innocent people for a quick buck for superiors. Process expertise is learned at the lower levels of politics in city councils, the legal apparatus, and such offices as 'city clerk' before one runs for 'higher office'. Attention to detail is for clerks and to new employees who get to do low-level administration (like senior NCO's and junior officers in the military). Management skills? He collects the rent through a post office at a bank. That's how he gets his funds.
There have been plenty of politicians who have had experience in small business and in lower levels of corporate bureaucracies. If you are thinking of the other tycoon who ran for the Presidency -- Ross Perot at least had to succeed at every level as a businessman, including accountability to customers for details. He may have eventually left the details to subordinates... but at the least he couldn't bluster his way through everything. He needed to get concrete results in the then-complex world of data processing and systems analysis. Property leasing and management looks in places of intractable scarcity looks like one of the easiest businesses that there is.
Quote:Meanwhile, a cult like sea of followers and fellow travelers are geared up to "tear down the Establishment." What will they do when his naked highness falls apart? There is nothing worse than an angry leaderless mob that has authoritarian impulses.
Eric Hoffer gives a scary explanation: they go from one authoritarian ideology to another. It might seem shocking to find that a former Klansman could become an 'Islamofascist' -- but pay attention to the word 'fascist' and recognize that one replaces fundamentalist Christianity with fundamentalist Islam and nothing changes but the robe. The contempt for outsiders remain. Many German Nazis and Italian fascists, and their collaborators throughout occupied Europe had gone from Bolshevism to Fascism. On the other side, Communists who had practically no local support before the Soviet conquest of central and southeastern Europe found that the rank-and-file enforcer of the Hlinka Guard in Slovakia, the Ustase in Croatia, the Arrow Cross in Hungary, or the Iron Guard in Romania became the perfect servant of Josef Stalin or Josip Broz Tito once the fascist idols were discredited and executed. The Commies offered meaning to angry people and plenty of victims -- the same liberals that the fascist butchers for Tiso, Szalasi, Pavelic, and Antonescu harassed. One of the nastiest villains in literature is Viktor Ippolitovich* Komarovsky ( Doctor Zhivago, Boris Pasternak) , who had connections to the Tsarist order in Russia and to the Bolsheviks. Whoever won he was going to be a brutal enforcer, betraying either Insiders of the Tsarist order if the Reds won or betraying the Bolsheviks to which he had feelers if the Whites won.
Even a relatively tolerant tradition like Buddhism could support the kamikaze culture within the Japanese Armed Forces. Black Power movements in America are practically Ku Kluxism in blackface, much in contrast to groups like the NAACP or the Urban League willing to deal with the (white) Establishment.
The True Believer is always angry and never reflective. But back to Hoffer: The opposite of a raging fascist is not a raging Communist. The opposite of a raging fascist is a sober liberal. If one believes that politics is at best a give-and-take, respect for legal precedent and the legitimate concerns of the other side, and a wariness of the hazards of destroying tradition, then one can do the compromise necessary for democracy.
Quote:However, this is just an overture. The real storm will be a combined global financial crisis and geopolitical crisis. While I don't agree with all the details he has laid out, John Xenakis' analysis of emerging threat vectors world wide on both the financial and geopolitical fronts are here for all to see. Flammable materials are everywhere and ignition is sure to happen.
With a reasonably competent, honest, and decent leader like Barack Obama one at worst gets a calming mood with no abrupt change. With Donald Trump we are fracking in dangerous fault zones. This is just the person to magnify any cultural divides in America to bait people to overreact and riot so that he can have the police department bring out the attack dogs and water cannons.
Quote:This coming storm will be the Climax of the Crisis. The leadership void in the US and a number of other NATO countries will invite geopolitical adventurism by the enemies of the West. Millions upon millions will be harmed initially by financial pain and later by war. We are going to witness phenomena which have thus far been unknown in human history. The forces of a world unraveling meeting high tech and mass destruction weapons will be a cataclysm. A few decades from now there will be no doubt that a crisis - in fact, the mother of all crises, has occurred.
Donald Trump may in his bloated ego see himself as the 'new Lincoln'. I see him more likely as the Milosevic of America.
*I wonder if Pasternak wanted to give him a patronymic closest to the word hypocrite, something that I almost read in his name. Does anyone know what the Russian word for hypocrite is? I think the Italian word is ipocrito or ipocrita depending on gender.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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(12-01-2016, 11:35 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: ...A man like this is destined to collapse like a wet paper bag, during the inevitable "3AM call" situations that will haunt him...
well that didn't take long ...
Donald Trump risks China rift with Taiwan call; First US-Taiwanese presidential contact since diplomatic relations were cut in 1979
Quote:Donald Trump risks opening up a major diplomatic dispute with China before he has even been inaugurated after speaking on the phone on Friday with Tsai Ying-wen, the president of Taiwan.
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Although it is not clear if the Trump transition team intended the conversation to signal a broader change in US policy towards Taiwan, the call is likely to infuriate Beijing which regards the island as a renegade province.
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“The Chinese leadership will see this as a highly provocative action, of historic proportions,” said Evan Medeiros, former Asia director at the White House national security council.
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Good point. Although, when I do the search, the first result is "Stratfor has 11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like a decade from now".
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