Report Card for Donald Trump

[SomeGuy]

And you're still goddamn doing it.  Write a new post!

[Mikebert]

(02-03-2017, 03:57 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I literally already gave you my answer: Dominant generations play active roles during periods when society is perceived to be in crisis (a social moment), and they carry that (successful) role with them into the 3T/1T.

That's a definition.  I was asking about the S&H generation theory.  So you have no conception of their theory?  The shorthand history creates generations and generations create history doesn't ring a bell?

[SomeGuy]

(02-03-2017, 04:03 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 03:57 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I literally already gave you my answer: Dominant generations play active roles during periods when society is perceived to be in crisis (a social moment), and they carry that (successful) role with them into the 3T/1T.

That's a definition.  I was asking about the S&H generation theory.  So you have no conception of their theory?  The shorthand history creates generations and generations create history doesn't ring a bell?

Beat you to it by 4 minutes.  Read/type faster, old man! 

*Yeah, this is definitely a shin-kicking contest and not a discussion. 

[Eric the Green]

(02-03-2017, 03:32 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 10:25 PM)Emman85 Wrote: There has been a rising sense of general civil unrest and political discontent for the past 5-6 years and these various movements are part of that, the women's march that just happened was possibly the largest protest the US has ever seen. Just last week millions of people were marching in the streets literally, what's you're definition of big?

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2...es-experts

The Iraq War protests led to nothing and so were small in effect.  Occupy Wall Street got lots of publicity and was small in effect.  The Tea Party was small in numbers but achieved large effects. The first two were small, even though they were either numerically large or got plenty of media attention.  The last was large, even though the actual protests and coverage were less than or equal to the other two.

Quote:..you are right that we have yet to approach the violent severity of 1967...

Precisely, which is why they will remain "small" in my estimation, pending some demonstration of effectiveness.

The difference was that the Tea Party recognized their ability to organize and win elections. Occupy was full of folks who poopoo-ed elections and really thought they could bring change by occupying the streets. The anti-Iraq War movement was somewhat better; they were out-organized in 2004 against an incumbent illegitimate war-making president, but they eventually turned the congress blue for a little while, until the Tea Party came along.

[Mikebert]

(02-03-2017, 03:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I hate when you do that, I wrote a response to a question you changed while I was writing it.

The S & H answer is that generations (and the roles they play) create turnings, and turnings (and the events that occur in them) create generations.

OK.  But this would apply to all generations, each to his own turning.  So why the dominant and recessive generations thing?

[Mikebert]

I did not realize we are real time.  A lot of my posts are off-time.  Its takes time to write and edit a post.  I often save because I can lose it (happens all the time).  To look up references and such means posts get formulated over sometimes lengthy period of time.

[Mikebert]

(02-03-2017, 03:50 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Mikebert

(02-03-2017, 03:15 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: A dominant generation is one that exercises an independent role during their first social movement, a role which they then carry on into midlife.  A recessive generation is one that play a dependent role (either child or midlife) during their first social moment, and compensates for that in the next.  

Consequently, dominant generations end up exerting influence in the public sphere (rhetoric and values, technology and institutions), whereas recessive generations compensate for their dependent role by exerting a commensurately greater influence on the private world of human relationships.

Ok. Now why are some generations dominant and others not?


Because social moments occur in relatively set intervals?  I feel like I have already answered this question.

Why should that happen?

[SomeGuy]

(02-03-2017, 04:06 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 03:59 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I hate when you do that, I wrote a response to a question you changed while I was writing it.

The S & H answer is that generations (and the roles they play) create turnings, and turnings (and the events that occur in them) create generations.

OK.  But this would apply to all generations, each to his own turning.  So why the dominant and recessive generations thing?

Because each generation is not the same as its parents.  They react to the norms, values, and priorities of the adult generation present when they were children.  

Adaptives grow up smothered, become conformist, and age into indecisive conciliators, caught between the old value-system and the new.  Reactives grow up underprotected, become wild and risk-taking, and mellow into pragmatists and eventually reactionaries.  Neither of them is willing to push a social moment during their period of leadership.  You can still get things like WWI, but the generational configurations are wrong for a lasting realignment.

You do know I read T4T, right?  What purpose do you think this serves?

[SomeGuy]

(02-03-2017, 04:12 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I did not realize we are real time.  A lot of my posts are off-time.  Its takes time to write and edit a post.  I often save because I can lose it (happens all the time).  To look up references and such means posts get formulated over sometimes lengthy period of time.

I generally use a text editor to store documents while I am writing them.  I also very rarely do major revisions, even when I was in school writing essays.  Checks for typos and grammar are about it.

YMMV.

[Mikebert]

(02-03-2017, 04:15 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: What purpose do you think this serves?

The purpose is we talk about the theory, but I don't think most folks, including you, have a grasp on it.  The S&H theory is endogenous, not exogenous.  That is the generations create themselves, they do not rely on some other external phenomenon creating the conditions under which generations then operate.

Your assertion that social moments are evenly spaced is an example of invoking an outside force: given the existence of social moments we can define those generations who take part in then in youth or in leadership as dominant.

But if you do that, you are simply moving the goalposts.  What causes the evenly-spaced social moments in the first place?

[Mikebert]

(02-03-2017, 04:18 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 04:12 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I did not realize we are real time.  A lot of my posts are off-time.  Its takes time to write and edit a post.  I often save because I can lose it (happens all the time).  To look up references and such means posts get formulated over sometimes lengthy period of time.

I generally use a text editor to store documents while I am writing them.  I also very rarely do major revisions, even when I was in school writing essays.  Checks for typos and grammar are about it.

YMMV.

Well I am not a good writer so I need to revise : Sometimes I write stuff on Word and paste it in (like the new thread I started today).  But a lot of time, like now, I am typing right into the site.

[Marypoza]

I'll just leave this here......


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president...d=45203891

[SomeGuy]

(02-03-2017, 04:25 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 04:15 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: What purpose do you think this serves?

The purpose is we talk about the theory, but I don't think most folks, including you, have a grasp on it.  The S&H theory is endogenous, not exogenous.  That is the generations create themselves, they do not rely on some other external phenomenon creating the conditions under which generations then operate.

Your assertion that social moments are evenly spaced is an example of invoking an outside force: given the existence of social moments we can define those generations who take part in then in youth or in leadership as dominant.

But if you do that, you are simply moving the goalposts.  What causes the evenly-spaced social moments in the first place?

Again, already addressed.  The character of the generations is determined by their ages during social moments, and their character in turn spurs their reactions to events, generating social moments.  Moralistic elders, pragmatic managers, and conformist youth cause society to react dramatically to problem deferred by the previous period, enabling drastic institutional and political change.  The society is exhausted and then falls into relative political stasis (not so much no forward movement as no movement side to side, a static trajectory if you will), which in turn becomes confining and spurs a spiritual crisis as the rising, indulged generation questions whether other directions are possible.  Conciliating and indecisive leaders, idealistic and divided managers, and an atomized youth lead to a sort of societal drift, which causes problems to build up which are then addressed in the next 4T, and so the cycle repeats.

This is very basic S & H.  Children don't grow up exactly like their parents, and so they behave differently as they grow up, and the aggregate of that difference in behavior leads to different periods, causing society to oscillate back and forth between active and passive, spiritual and secular states.

Again, what made you think your understanding of this was somehow unique?

[SomeGuy]

(02-03-2017, 04:29 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 04:18 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-03-2017, 04:12 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I did not realize we are real time.  A lot of my posts are off-time.  Its takes time to write and edit a post.  I often save because I can lose it (happens all the time).  To look up references and such means posts get formulated over sometimes lengthy period of time.

I generally use a text editor to store documents while I am writing them.  I also very rarely do major revisions, even when I was in school writing essays.  Checks for typos and grammar are about it.

YMMV.

Well I am not a good writer so I need to revise : Sometimes I write stuff on Word and paste it in (like the new thread I started today).  But a lot of time, like now, I am typing right into the site.

I generally type directly into the site, but if it is a large response I create a blank text file and copy-paste it into there in case my connection times out while I am posting.

I gradually get lazy about this, until I spend a bunch of time writing a long post only to have it eaten after I press reply, starting the cycle over again.  Call it Jordan's Posting Saeculum, if you will. 

[Marypoza]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/...54556.html

[pbrower2a]

From the well-renowned Der Spiegel, the German news magazine which has roughly the role that Time has in America:



A reference to the great classical myth of Perseus slaying Medusa, in case you did not know.

[Mikebert]

(02-03-2017, 04:45 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Again, already addressed.  The character of the generations is determined by their ages during social moments, and their character in turn spurs their reactions to events, generating social moments.  Moralistic elders, pragmatic managers, and conformist youth cause society to react dramatically to problem deferred by the previous period, enabling drastic institutional and political change.  The society is exhausted and then falls into relative political stasis (not so much no forward movement as no movement side to side, a static trajectory if you will), which in turn becomes confining and spurs a spiritual crisis as the rising, indulged generation questions whether other directions are possible.  Conciliating and indecisive leaders, idealistic and divided managers, and an atomized youth lead to a sort of societal drift, which causes problems to build up which are then addressed in the next 4T, and so the cycle repeats. This is very basic S & H.

Yes, but have you taken it to the next step?  Where do moralistic elders, pragmatic managers, and conformist youth come from? 

Per S&H, the experience of living through a social moment creates the peer personality of birth cohorts based on the phase of life they occupy.  Moralistic elders in a 4T are the self-adsorbed mid-lifers in the prior 3T and the rebellious rising adults in the 2T.  This means today’s moralistic elders (prophets) were the same people who were rising adults in the previous social moment. 

OK, so consider my mom and I.  My mom was a rising adult until November 1973, and so spent nearly a decade of the 2T (and the most eventful portion) as a rising adult.  I became a rising adult in March 1981, and spent nearly four years of my rising adulthood in a 2T.  My mom spent more the twice the time as a rising adult in a 2T than I did, and lived through the time of the most radical change--and yet she was an artist and I am a prophet.

But S&H were on to something.  I saw the 2T/3T happen in real time, and noted the phenomenon, although I did not know what it was.  Years later when I read Generations I thought, aha that’s what that was. 

But their mechanism doesn’t give the generations its says should form. Based on phases of life, I should be a core Xer since I grew up in a 2T, spent my rising adulthood in a 3T, and am spending my mature adulthood in a 4T, which is supposed to be the experience of a Nomad, but I do not have the peer personality of a Nomad.  Clearly, what makes me a prophet archetype was not the phase of life I occupied during the turnings.  It’s something else.

[SomeGuy]

So we're off trying to find out if I've read the book that this site is basically based on?

Ok, let's play this out.  What year were you born?  Your mom?

[Mikebert]

(02-04-2017, 11:37 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: So we're off trying to find out if I've read the book that this site is basically based on?

Ok, let's play this out.  What year were you born?  Your mom?

No.  The question is whether you ever considered how their cycle works, as opposed to just mapping out turnings about 80-100 years apart. Past turnings are identified with the advantage of hindsight. For example the three American 4Ts are really obvious.  To see going forward one needs to apply their theory, and you can't do that unless you know how it works.  How does history create the generations?  And then how do these generations create history?  Dave Krein's paper provides insight on the latter. 

So I started with a discussion of how does history create generations.  S&H aren't very clear on this.  Why should I have one peer personality and my younger brother (b 1965) another?  Both of us were kids in the sixties and early seventies.  By the time I was in high school (1973) it was winding down.  When he started high school (1979) it was pretty much over although the 2T would technically continue for another 5 years.  Yet we fall into different generations.  It can't be due to out experiences over a two-decade phase of life, because our phases of life mostly overlap (we both married in the first half of the nineties, for example).  But we do fall into different generations.  The difference has to reflect experiences over a much shorter span of time than a full phase of life. 

Me: March 1959 and my mom: Nov 1930  Rising adulthood is 22-43, so she exits in Nov 1973 and I enter in March 1981.

[SomeGuy]

(02-04-2017, 03:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-04-2017, 11:37 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: So we're off trying to find out if I've read the book that this site is basically based on?

Ok, let's play this out.  What year were you born?  Your mom?

March 1959 and Nov 1930

Ok, so we have a Joneser and a core Silent.  By the time the 2T really came around your mom was in her 30s, and she has clear memories of the 1T as an adult.  So, definitely a Silent.  How did she participate/feel about the events in the 60s and 70s?  Any divorces or other adult personal crises during that period?

NOTE: I don't mean to pry, so, as always, feel free not to answer if you don't want.

As for you, any sort of youthful activism?  How was your relationship with your dad?  When was he born?  What was your childhood like?