Paul Krugman's takedown of Trump's economic blatherings.

[playwrite]

(05-18-2016, 02:22 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(05-18-2016, 04:44 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-17-2016, 09:18 PM)playwrite Wrote: Really?  When an Chinese-manufactured iPhone sells anywhere in the world, how much of the revenue goes to China v. US?

Even if most of the profit is repatriated to the US for ishits, do you honestly think the Chinese couldn't introduce knockoff ishits on a moment's notice?  How many different products do the Chinese copy directly?  Quite a lot.  Everything from handbags to watches, a cell phone wouldn't be a huge leap for them.

Quote:And again, the U.S. is much more a self-contained economy.  China is trying to emulate us.

I'm going to require evidence for this because every time I go to Wally World I see made in China (or somewhere that isn't the US or even North America) on most things that aren't in the grocery department.  Here's the truth that everyone else can see.  The US exports raw materials and imports finished goods.  The very sort of thing that third world countries do.  I highly doubt China is trying to emulate that...the CPC understands wealth is made by doing the opposite:  Importing raw materials and exporting finished goods.

Yes, Kinser is right here, china is doing the smart thing and creating wealth by exporting real industrial products and importing raw materials. It is we who are being stupid by being a primarily consumer economy.

Gad, you two make a pair!   

I think I've asked you before, Cynic, when a govt employee comes into your business, can you tell the difference between his dollars and that of an employee of a private entity?  Likewise, can you tell the difference between the money you get from someone employed in the service sector from another employed at a manufacturing plant?  Do you report your income taxes on two or more forms to show all the "real income" and the "fake income?"  Would you be willing to send your "fake income" to me (I can provide a PO Box)?

And for you Kinser, here's a pretty good graphic that explains much but not all -

[img]<a href=[/img]" />

Be sure to check the story at the link - 

http://www.merics.org/programme/wirtscha...ystem.html

- to get the basic story of why China wants a distribution of their economy to look more like ours.

However, you will need to dig a little farther to get to these even more interesting aspects -

- Too much of that "investment" in China has gone into creating their "net exports" - the return on that has plummeted and they are losing market share, due to their own rising labor cost, to others (e.g. Vietnam, Indonesia, Mynamar).   

- The other problem is their "household sector" has not been ready to take on that portion of their investment sector dedicated to domestic consumption - not only empty factories but "ghost cities."   

- Some of those mistakes have been glossed over because of the reality that the Chinese central government, a monetary sovereign, is the actual debtor of last resort.  However, they have gone out of their way to make it look like private sector investment (i.e., banks, developers) and it has created a lot of bullshXt in the entire market - take a t-baggers' worst myth of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and stuff it with powerful steroids - oh, and this time, the story is real, just a lot bigger.

But hey, Rome wasn't built in a day.  And besides, it's their problem (well, not really but let's pretend anyway because Trump says so.)

Let's look at the US picture.  Notice the  negative 3.5% of trade's contribution to our GDP - that's our trade deficit.  Kind of puny compared to the other sectors, no?  That's also actually down to around -2.5% today, representing the difference between about 12.5% in imports and 10% in exports.  

Now, from a jobs perspective, one could say that those two numbers should actually be added together to reflect all that economic activity of us importing as well as exporting - go ask a longshoremen how long his job would last if he just handled the exports.  

Now if you did add the 10% and 12.5% together, you would have to re-normalize all the numbers so that they add up to 100% accounting.  When you do that, you get around 15%.  What that means is 85% of our economy is "closed"  - has nothing much to do with the rest of world.  That's not completely true because some of the investment sector results in products for exports - but the reality is the big market for nearly all our investment is domestic so investment solely for supporting exports is basically a rounding error.

Now here's the thing about Trump (and to a somewhat lesser extent, Sanders) trade proposals.  First, any trade proposal, even those of NAFTA or TPP are going to be a small part of overall trade which is already a small part of the overall economy.  And even within the trade that a specific trade agreement deals with, it is working at the margins for the goods and services and labor involved.  And perhaps most important, it's likely that if you behave as an a-hole and put trade barriers up, you're trading partners are going to act like a-holes too and do the same thing - you're combined economy activity is likely to decline significantly.

Bottom line and psssss, its a secret, if you're looking for big impacts on employment and wages, and you are looking at trade, you are looking in the wrong place.  You might as well be looking for one of these -
  

On the other hand, increase your investment sector expenditures on expanding out our domestic road, electric and Internet grids for e-powered, driverless transportation that includes cars, trucks and high speed trains for use by the household sector.... watch your economy boom.  

[playwrite]

(05-20-2016, 09:58 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-20-2016, 09:46 AM)playwrite Wrote:

(05-19-2016, 07:43 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-19-2016, 11:16 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Dubya seems to be a nice guy -- at least so long as he wasn't making policy decisions. Donald Trump?

He's the sort of person who would tell a political opponent to resign for the good of the country -- in a nationally-televised press conference.

Some of them should resign for the good of the country.

I reminded of Martin Niemöller's "...When they came for me, there was no one left to speak out."

Have you thought about which one of your attributes will put you highest on their list?

Stockholm syndrome?

I'm not in a position of political authority so not relevant.  

Nice use of the Trump is Hitler meme though.  To bad it is all Daddy's opponents have to attack him with.  You know because tweeting mean things on the internet is exactly like gassing 6 million Jews and starting a war that killed a further 50 million.

It does make me wonder if you realize how stupid you sound when you use that meme though...probably not. That would require being self-aware.

Sounds like I struck a nerve.  Don't worry, at least you can still use the restrooms... for now.  

Even so, I'm still wondering which of your attributes they'll use first to having you squatting in the woods.

I also wonder if those in the transgender or Hispanic communities get all huffy over Godwin's Law.

[Kinser79]

(05-20-2016, 11:51 AM)playwrite Wrote: Sounds like I struck a nerve.

Hardly. That would imply that I give your statements any weight at all, which I don't.

Quote: Don't worry, at least you can still use the restrooms... for now.  

Pretty sure I will always be able to use the restrooms. I'm Cisgendered and have already graduated from a public school some 20 years ago so as such Obama's recent federal over reach bullying of public schools does not apply to me.

Quote:Even so, I'm still wondering which of your attributes they'll use first to having you squatting in the woods.

Being a hunter most likely. Protip: learn to identify what poison ivy looks like before wiping with leaves.

Quote:I also wonder if those in the transgender or Hispanic communities get all huffy over Godwin's Law.

I'm hardly huffy at all. Again that would assume that I give your statements any weight--which I don't. I just find it fascinating that you would jump immediately to an reducito ad Hitlerum that indicates you have no rational argument (not that I expected you to have one).

[playwrite]

(05-20-2016, 12:20 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I'm hardly huffy at all. 

No, if you're salivating over televised firings by the Talking Yam, you're pretty huffy.

[Kinser79]

(05-26-2016, 01:34 PM)playwrite Wrote:

(05-20-2016, 12:20 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I'm hardly huffy at all. 

No, if you're salivating over televised firings by the Talking Yam, you're pretty huffy.

Is that all you got? Honestly I think a Trump presidency will be remarkable in how boring it will be. He'll fix the trade and he'll build the wall and then if he has time before 2018 he'll repatriate a large percentage of the troops from over seas so they can defend this country here.

That said there are quite a few people in Washington who really do need to be fired.

[pbrower2a]

People say mean things about Donald Trump because he says mean things about huge numbers of people and suggests harsh solutions for problems.

I rarely remember what good things I ever said about the schoolyard bully. I know that several of them ended up under the thumb of the biggest bully of them all -- the penal system.

[Odin]

(05-27-2016, 11:32 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: I totally get the whole "Daddy" thing (I've got friends who fit this stereotype).

But the heck if I get why any gay would be attracted to a "Daddy" who resembles the type of gay bashing schoolyard bullies who made earlier turnings such hell for gays.

Masochists?

[Eric the Green]

(05-27-2016, 11:32 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: I totally get the whole "Daddy" thing (I've got friends who fit this stereotype).

But the heck if I get why any gay would be attracted to a "Daddy" who resembles the type of gay bashing schoolyard bullies who made earlier turnings such hell for gays.

Excellent question.

In this case, my theory is that it is a consequence of failing to get treatment for his CHDS.

There could be other theories, but I won't go into them

[Cynic Hero '86]

Trump advocates economic protectionism, thus allowing american industry and technological development to prosper.

[Ragnarök_62]

Quote:Really?  When an Chinese-manufactured iPhone sells anywhere in the world, how much of the revenue goes to China v. US?

Most of the income from Ishits goes to Apple as opposed to Foxconn. That income is then distributed to shareholders of Apple. I'd reckon most of said shareholders reside in the US.

Quote:And again, the U.S. is much more a self-contained economy.  China is trying to emulate us.

kinser\79 Wrote:I'm going to require evidence for this because every time I go to Wally World I see made in China (or somewhere that isn't the US or even North America) on most things that aren't in the grocery department.  Here's the truth that everyone else can see.  The US exports raw materials and imports finished goods.  The very sort of thing that third world countries do.  I highly doubt China is trying to emulate that...the CPC understands wealth is made by doing the opposite:  Importing raw materials and exporting finished goods.

and

playwrite Wrote:Yes, Kinser is right here, china is doing the smart thing and creating wealth by exporting real industrial products and importing raw materials. It is we who are being stupid by being a primarily consumer economy.

We're being stupid as fuck because we blow a lot of dough on our empire. We also buy shitty things like the F-35.
Then the cherry on top is we're #1 in prisoners/capita.

All of that stuff is banana republic stuff along with Kinser'79's obervation about the trash to be had at Wally World. Case in point are the cheap ass plastic *Soda Stream systems at Wally World.


* Cheap ass made in China Soda stream.  I broke the thing by pressing down too hard.  Idiots, there are a variety of humans known as "males".
*



I got the blue one of these US made Soda Stream machines. It's much more durable [made of metal] and pretty stylish.
[quote pid='907' dateline='1463599360']


I
[/quote]

Quote:Gad, you two make a pair!   

I think I've asked you before, Cynic, when a govt employee comes into your business, can you tell the difference between his dollars and that of an employee of a private entity?  Likewise, can you tell the difference between the money you get from someone employed in the service sector from another employed at a manufacturing plant?  Do you report your income taxes on two or more forms to show all the "real income" and the "fake income?"  Would you be willing to send your "fake income" to me (I can provide a PO Box)?

Cynic doesn't want FRNS?  Hey, Cynic I'll be glad to relieve you of them.

playwrite Wrote:And for you Kinser, here's a pretty good graphic that explains much but not all -

[img]<a href=[/img]" />

Be sure to check the story at the link - 

http://www.merics.org/programme/wirtscha...ystem.html

- to get the basic story of why China wants a distribution of their economy to look more like ours.

However, you will need to dig a little farther to get to these even more interesting aspects -

- Too much of that "investment" in China has gone into creating their "net exports" - the return on that has plummeted and they are losing market share, due to their own rising labor cost, to others (e.g. Vietnam, Indonesia, Mynamar).  

1. I think they're fixing to use robots due to said rising costs. That causes a different problem though.  That causes idle hands and minds. Idle hands and minds cause lots of mischief.
2. The US OTOH, has rotten infrastructure.  A infrastructure overhaul is pretty labor intensive so I think we can dial back consuming trash like the latest rev level of Ishits and whatever planned obsolescence of stuff like clothes. I wear shirts until they completely fall apart and get replacements at thrift stores.
3. Let's dial back consumption to what Germany has, add some for government and investment. The stuff in gray looks pretty.

Quote:- The other problem is their "household sector" has not been ready to take on that portion of their investment sector dedicated to domestic consumption - not only empty factories but "ghost cities."  

The US has a different problem. Inequity of income is it and that's another characteristic of a banana republic.

Quote:- Some of those mistakes have been glossed over because of the reality that the Chinese central government, a monetary sovereign, is the actual debtor of last resort.  However, they have gone out of their way to make it look like private sector investment (i.e., banks, developers) and it has created a lot of bullshXt in the entire market - take a t-baggers' worst myth of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and stuff it with powerful steroids - oh, and this time, the story is real, just a lot bigger.

I'm not sure what their myth is wrt Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae is, but housing != proper role of government. Abolish any subsidies to the housing industry.  I'd tack the money saved by getting rid of that along with [Department of Education, too many prisons, Homeland Security, too much military spending, DEA, black prisons, Guantanmo, all Mideast wars of choice, and NSA] and redirect to single payer healthcare and just apply it for demographic Baby Boomer Social Security.

Quote:Let's look at the US picture.  Notice the  negative 3.5% of trade's contribution to our GDP - that's our trade deficit.  Kind of puny compared to the other sectors, no?  That's also actually down to around -2.5% today, representing the difference between about 12.5% in imports and 10% in exports. 

Nawww, it just proves there is a free lunch. Other nations love our pretty FRNS and give us actual stuff for them.

Quote:Now, from a jobs perspective, one could say that those two numbers should actually be added together to reflect all that economic activity of us importing as well as exporting - go ask a longshoremen how long his job would last if he just handled the exports.  

Let's import stuff like  does.  This is one of Rag's ancestral countries.

Quote:Now if you did add the 10% and 12.5% together, you would have to re-normalize all the numbers so that they add up to 100% accounting.  When you do that, you get around 15%.  What that means is 85% of our economy is "closed"  - has nothing much to do with the rest of world.  That's not completely true because some of the investment sector results in products for exports - but the reality is the big market for nearly all our investment is domestic so investment solely for supporting exports is basically a rounding error.

Not bad, 85% autarky.

Quote:Now here's the thing about Trump (and to a somewhat lesser extent, Sanders) trade proposals.  First, any trade proposal, even those of NAFTA or TPP

TPP sucks green donkey dicks. That's not a trade agreement. It's a turn sovereignty over to multinationals who would be able to sue if some regulation fucked up their profits. That thing needs to die. NAFTA sucks because it costs jobs.

Quote:are going to be a small part of overall trade which is already a small part of the overall economy.  And even within the trade that a specific trade agreement deals with, it is working at the margins for the goods and services and labor involved.  And perhaps most important, it's likely that if you behave as an a-hole and put trade barriers up, you're trading partners are going to act like a-holes too and do the same thing - you're combined economy activity is likely to decline significantly.

Yeah, but don't sign give the store away trade agreements.

Quote:Bottom line and psssss, its a secret, if you're looking for big impacts on employment and wages, and you are looking at trade, you are looking in the wrong place.  You might as well be looking for one of these -
  *        

Uh, not really. Since we're already 85% there wrt autarky, I think we can get pretty close by fucking off Mideast oil and then fuck off that hellhole itself.

Quote:On the other hand, increase your investment sector expenditures on expanding out our domestic road, electric and Internet grids for e-powered, driverless transportation that includes cars, trucks and high speed trains for use by the household sector.... watch your economy boom.  

Precisely. I'd add renewable solar and windpower for the aforementioned evil Mideast oil. Nothing like whacking away at the carbon footprint.

[Cynic Hero '86]

We are tired of selfish pacifists and social justice warriors taking away people's rights in order to preserve deviant lifestyles or giving benefits to the less capable human-material. Just look at the persecution of Martin Shkreli, courts are trying to railroad him simply because he wanted to make his company more efficient and profitable. He is an entrepreneur, it is his livelihood to make money.

[Ragnarök_62]

(05-30-2016, 06:16 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: We are tired of selfish pacifists and social justice warriors taking away people's rights in order to preserve deviant lifestyles or giving benefits to the less capable human-material. Just look at the persecution of Martin Shkreli, courts are trying to railroad him simply because he wanted to make his company more efficient and profitable. He is an entrepreneur, it is his livelihood to make money.

Shkerli's hedge fund didn't invent Pyrimethamine. His hedge fund via some drug company bought the rights to make the stuff. There's absolute no creation going on. It's the same old financial engineering that other assorted parasites like vulture funds, payday loan companies, 0 down 84 month car loan putter outers, etc. are. He needs to be railroaded to a long prison sentence because of fraud and his drug shenanigans kill. Real entrepreneurs create new wealth , not destroy it like this low life.

[pbrower2a]

(05-30-2016, 06:16 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: We are tired of selfish pacifists and social justice warriors taking away people's rights in order to preserve deviant lifestyles or giving benefits to the less capable human-material. Just look at the persecution of Martin Shkreli, courts are trying to railroad him simply because he wanted to make his company more efficient and profitable. He is an entrepreneur, it is his livelihood to make money.

Deviant lifestyles? How about the most deviant manifestation of politics -- fascism?

Shkreli -- a monopolist of the worst kind, the person who puts his own profiteering over the value of human life.  He's the sort who attracts the attention of hostile prosecutors looking for some violation of the law.

[Eric the Green]

(05-30-2016, 06:16 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: We are tired of selfish pacifists and social justice warriors taking away people's rights in order to preserve deviant lifestyles or giving benefits to the less capable human-material. Just look at the persecution of Martin Shkreli, courts are trying to railroad him simply because he wanted to make his company more efficient and profitable. He is an entrepreneur, it is his livelihood to make money.

Rights for the wealthy to prey on others. Deviant lifestyles of the rich and famous.