Controlling Cohort in Each Generation

[jleagans]

Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).  

The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking:  every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.


I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation.  This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound.  Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.

For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987.  The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.

Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:

1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
         
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger

1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean

1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren

Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):

1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro


How is this useful?  I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028?  Shapiro?

And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.

Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.

[Bill the Piper]

In the UK there is a peak of sorts for boomers, albeit later than in America:
1949 - Jeremy Corbyn
1950 - Harriet Harman
1953 - Tony Blair
1956 - Theresa May

And there could be one for Xers. Three important British politicians were born in mid 1960s:
1964 - Boris Johnson
1966 - David Cameron
1967 - Michael Gove

On the Continent there is also a peak for boomers, roughly at the same time than in Britain:

1949 - Lech Kaczynski
1952 - Vladimir Putin
1954 - Angela Merkel / Alexander Lukashenko
1955 - Nicolas Sarcozy

But the controlling cohorts of continental Xers are definitely younger:

1972 - Pedro Sánchez
1973 - Matteo Salvini
1974 - Alexis Tsipras
1977 - Emmanuel Macron

[Eric the Green]

(11-08-2018, 05:22 PM)jleagans Wrote: Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).  

The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking:  every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.


I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation.  This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound.  Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.

For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987.  The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.

Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:

1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
         
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger

1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean

1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren

Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):

1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro


How is this useful?  I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028?  Shapiro?

And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.

Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.

Connor Lamb! I haven't checked out that longshot.

Only skilled candidates can win, and they are indicated by horoscope scores
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

In 1946, not only were those three born within the same year, but within 2 months of each other. In that case, all three had Jupiter trine Uranus very closely, and aligned with the Sun and Moon in their charts.

Mitch Landrieu has the same configuration, born in 1960. Terry McAuliffe (b. 1957) and Sherrod Brown (b. 1952) also have strong Jupiter-Uranus positive aspects.

Another historical president with Jupiter trine Uranus was FDR.

Elizabeth Warren is unlikely to beat Donald Trump.

Obama 1961 and Landrieu 1960 could indicate a powerful cohort.

[Bill the Piper]

For Millennials in global pop culture, it seems 1988-94 are controlling cohorts:

1988 - Rihanna
1989 - Adele
1990 - Jennifer Lawrence
1991 - Ed Sheeran / Louis Tomlinson (One Direction)
1992 - Miley Cyrus
1993 - Ariana Grande/ Niall Horan, Zayn Malik and Niall Horan (all from One Direction)
1994 - Justin Bieber / Niall Horan (One Direction)

[Ghost]

(11-11-2018, 06:30 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For Millennials in global pop culture, it seems 1988-94 are controlling cohorts:

1988 - Rihanna
1989 - Adele
1990 - Jennifer Lawrence
1991 - Ed Sheeran / Louis Tomlinson (One Direction)
1992 - Miley Cyrus
1993 - Ariana Grande/ Niall Horan, Zayn Malik and Niall Horan (all from One Direction)
1994 - Justin Bieber / Niall Horan (One Direction)

Adele was born in 1988.
Niall Horan was born in 1993.

[Bill the Piper]

(11-11-2018, 08:32 AM)Ghost Wrote:

(11-11-2018, 06:30 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For Millennials in global pop culture, it seems 1988-94 are controlling cohorts:

1988 - Rihanna
1989 - Adele
1990 - Jennifer Lawrence
1991 - Ed Sheeran / Louis Tomlinson (One Direction)
1992 - Miley Cyrus
1993 - Ariana Grande/ Niall Horan, Zayn Malik and Niall Horan (all from One Direction)
1994 - Justin Bieber / Niall Horan (One Direction)

Adele was born in 1988.
Niall Horan was born in 1993.

Thank you!

[Ghost]

You're welcome.

[Marypoza]

(11-10-2018, 12:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-08-2018, 05:22 PM)jleagans Wrote: Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).  

The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking:  every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.


I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation.  This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound.  Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.

For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987.  The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.

Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:

1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
         
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger

1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean

1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren

Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):

1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro


How is this useful?  I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028?  Shapiro?

And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.

Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.

Connor Lamb! I haven't checked out that longshot.

Only skilled candidates can win, and they are indicated by horoscope scores
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

In 1946, not only were those three born within the same year, but within 2 months of each other. In that case, all three had Jupiter trine Uranus very closely, and aligned with the Sun and Moon in their charts.

Mitch Landrieu has the same configuration, born in 1960. Terry McAuliffe (b. 1957) and Sherrod Brown (b. 1952) also have strong Jupiter-Uranus positive aspects.

Another historical president with Jupiter trine Uranus was FDR.

Elizabeth Warren is unlikely to beat Donald Trump.

Obama 1961 and Landrieu 1960 could indicate a powerful cohort.

-- l'll go with my homeboy Sherrod

[Hintergrund]

Older people always have a certain headstart. Among kids, even a few months of age difference can mean a lot.

[jleagans]

(11-10-2018, 07:55 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: In the UK there is a peak of sorts for boomers, albeit later than in America:
1949 - Jeremy Corbyn
1950 - Harriet Harman
1953 - Tony Blair
1956 - Theresa May

And there could be one for Xers. Three important British politicians were born in mid 1960s:
1964 - Boris Johnson
1966 - David Cameron
1967 - Michael Gove

On the Continent there is also a peak for boomers, roughly at the same time than in Britain:

1949 - Lech Kaczynski
1952 - Vladimir Putin
1954 - Angela Merkel / Alexander Lukashenko
1955 - Nicolas Sarcozy

But the controlling cohorts of continental Xers are definitely younger:

1972 - Pedro Sánchez
1973 - Matteo Salvini
1974 - Alexis Tsipras
1977 - Emmanuel Macron

Yes this holds in Europe, the lag between them and America in my opinion comes from their "return to normalcy" post WW-II coming later.

[jleagans]

(11-10-2018, 12:58 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Connor Lamb! I haven't checked out that longshot.

Only skilled candidates can win, and they are indicated by horoscope scores
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

In 1946, not only were those three born within the same year, but within 2 months of each other. In that case, all three had Jupiter trine Uranus very closely, and aligned with the Sun and Moon in their charts.

Mitch Landrieu has the same configuration, born in 1960. Terry McAuliffe (b. 1957) and Sherrod Brown (b. 1952) also have strong Jupiter-Uranus positive aspects.

Another historical president with Jupiter trine Uranus was FDR.

Elizabeth Warren is unlikely to beat Donald Trump.

Obama 1961 and Landrieu 1960 could indicate a powerful cohort.

I LOVE the Mitch Landrieu point.  He checks a LOT of my boxes. 

The first Millennial President is coming QUICKLY, the references for this are JFK (43 when elected) and Clinton (46 when elected, but barring the sex scandals could have won in 1988 at 42).  That range would put the first Millennial in 2028, but 2024 isn't crazy.  Any Millennials getting experience at all in office right now should be considered as frontrunners a decade from now (Bill Clinton was a Governor by 33).  This early cohort that gets elected office on their resume is more likely to hold onto office and have a plausible resume to move up the ladder.

[Ghost]

(11-08-2018, 05:22 PM)jleagans Wrote: Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).  

The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking:  every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.


I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation.  This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound.  Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.

For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987.  The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.

Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:

1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
         
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger

1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean

1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren

Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):

1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro


How is this useful?  I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028?  Shapiro?

And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.

Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.

(11-11-2018, 11:18 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(11-11-2018, 08:32 AM)Ghost Wrote:

(11-11-2018, 06:30 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For Millennials in global pop culture, it seems 1988-94 are controlling cohorts:

1988 - Rihanna
1989 - Adele
1990 - Jennifer Lawrence
1991 - Ed Sheeran / Louis Tomlinson (One Direction)
1992 - Miley Cyrus
1993 - Ariana Grande/ Niall Horan, Zayn Malik and Niall Horan (all from One Direction)
1994 - Justin Bieber / Niall Horan (One Direction)

Adele was born in 1988.
Niall Horan was born in 1993.

Thank you!

1981 is pretty big too (these names are not political though).

Justin Timberlake, Paris Hilton, Casey Neistat, Roger Federer, Meghan Markle, Beyonce, Serena Williams, and Britney Spears were all born in 1981.

[Bill the Piper]

(11-17-2018, 12:48 PM)Ghost Wrote: 1981 is pretty big too (these names are not political though).

Justin Timberlake, Paris Hilton, Casey Neistat, Roger Federer, Meghan Markle, Beyonce, Serena Williams, and Britney Spears were all born in 1981.

Would that be the controlling cohort for Xennials?

[pbrower2a]

1982 -- greatest starting pitcher of our time, Justin Verlander.

A hint: his wife is a high-fashion model, and his father-in-law is Fred Upton, Representative for the 6th Congressional District of Michigan.

I wonder if he is thinking of going into politics. Might not be so great. Jim Bunning did that too, and he was a lousy Senator.

[Ghost]

(11-19-2018, 10:07 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: 1982 -- greatest starting pitcher of our time, Justin Verlander.

A hint: his wife is a high-fashion model, and his father-in-law is Fred Upton, Representative for the 6th Congressional District of Michigan.

I wonder if he is thinking of going into politics. Might not be so great. Jim Bunning did that too, and he was a lousy Senator.

I think that Justin Verlander was born in 1983, not 1982.

[Ghost]

(11-19-2018, 05:53 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(11-17-2018, 12:48 PM)Ghost Wrote: 1981 is pretty big too (these names are not political though).

Justin Timberlake, Paris Hilton, Casey Neistat, Roger Federer, Meghan Markle, Beyonce, Serena Williams, and Britney Spears were all born in 1981.

Would that be the controlling cohort for Xennials?

Yes.

[Eric the Green]

(11-11-2018, 11:18 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(11-11-2018, 08:32 AM)Ghost Wrote:

(11-11-2018, 06:30 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For Millennials in global pop culture, it seems 1988-94 are controlling cohorts:

1988 - Rihanna
1989 - Adele
1990 - Jennifer Lawrence
1991 - Ed Sheeran / Louis Tomlinson (One Direction)
1992 - Miley Cyrus
1993 - Ariana Grande/ Niall Horan, Zayn Malik and Niall Horan (all from One Direction)
1994 - Justin Bieber / Niall Horan (One Direction)

Adele was born in 1988.
Niall Horan was born in 1993.

Thank you!

Harry Styles was the one born in 1994, just a month before the Biebs.

[Hintergrund]

Cameron really is a typical X-er... he gambled with the Brexit vote, thought it'd make him more popular with the anti-EU crowd, and the Brits would vote "Remain" anyway. Well, the gamble blew up.