Compare this 4T to others

[Kinser79]

(05-07-2019, 09:39 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-06-2019, 04:00 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-02-2019, 06:41 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That's another good comparison in line with the 1850s redux. I'm learning that a 4T is really invariably some version of a civil conflict between factions. It's the factions that were formed throughout the saeculum as the culture was shaken up finally figuring out who is dominant. Hopefully more in the political sphere than in the military sphere. If there is war with a foreign power in the 4T it is a backdrop to what is happening within the society.

It has been likened by myself and others on the forum that the current 4T is a cold civil war.  In the US at any rate the current 4T looks like it will be an internal affair, one which we should be approaching the climax too soon whether one places the start in 2001, 2005/6 or 2008.

The question really should be does the cold civil war ever go hot or does it peters out and the 1T whimpers in in a very un-high like manner.

If it peters out, and issues like AGW and wealth inequality are just left there to rot, the final resolution will not be so quiet.  When that occurs is not hard to guess: much sooner than the next 4T.  We can't tolerate that much climate alteration before the lid blows off, and wealth inequality is already starting to generate hate of the rich.  Letting them run will only intensify those feelings.

Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

[David Horn]

(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

Possible, though unlikely. We are advancing so quickly in all areas of technology, that something as bizarre as transhumanism may emerge before the next 4T.

Kinser79 Wrote:AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

I know better. Global temperatures are rising for the simple reason that less heat is reradiated into space than the amount radiated in. That will be true as long as the amount of CO2 remains higher than the ideal, and the global temperature hasn't yet reached stasis. Plant growth can't fix that quickly enough, and total plant capacity is declining in any case.

Kinser79 Wrote:Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

When the head of the Disney Corporation makes 1,400 times the average salary of Disney workers, and no redress through labor action is possible -- especially for Disney World employees -- the largest part of the work force. These so-called Right to Work laws have so totally bent the power curve in favor of capital and management, that some breakdown has been inevitable for a long time. The imbalance I high enough now, that another major recession may be all it takes to trigger some massive action … hopefully peaceful, though no guarantee of that.

[Kinser79]

(05-08-2019, 10:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

Possible, though unlikely.  We are advancing so quickly in all areas of technology, that something as bizarre as transhumanism may emerge before the next 4T.

Kinser79 Wrote:AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

I know better.  Global temperatures are rising for the simple reason that less heat is reradiated into space than the amount radiated in.  That will be true as long as the amount of CO2 remains higher than the ideal, and the global temperature hasn't yet reached stasis.  Plant growth can't fix that quickly enough, and total plant capacity is declining in any case.

Kinser79 Wrote:Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

When the head of the Disney Corporation makes 1,400 times the average salary of Disney workers, and no redress through labor action is possible -- especially for Disney World employees -- the largest part of the work force.  These so-called Right to Work laws have so totally bent the power curve in favor of capital and management, that some breakdown has been inevitable for a long time.  The imbalance I high enough now, that another major recession may be all it takes to trigger some massive action … hopefully peaceful, though no guarantee of that.

Transhumanism is a bugbear that will never come to fruition.  As AI advances, it is far more likely to see us as in the way than to merge with us, or us with it.

If what you say is true then NASA should have no reason to manipulate their own figures on a regular basis.  BTW the hotest and dryest years on record occurred in the 1930s.  But what do we do know bout what the Sun is doing?  We do know that it has been releasing an increased amount of radiated heat and light. 

Now I could be a fool...but considering that 98% of the matter in the solar system are in the sun, I think it might, just might have more to do with the weather on earth than if I burn a log or burn a lump of coal today.


I've been in a Union.  I've been a scab.  I've also been the owner of my own business.  Unions provide nothing to the working class.  The goal of every worker should be at some point to become the owner of their own business.  One doesn't become rich, or even well off working and creating wealth for others.

That being said, as a business owner, I'm looking to install new order taking kiosks.  Automation is coming for everyone's job..

[AspieMillennial]

(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-07-2019, 09:39 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-06-2019, 04:00 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-02-2019, 06:41 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That's another good comparison in line with the 1850s redux. I'm learning that a 4T is really invariably some version of a civil conflict between factions. It's the factions that were formed throughout the saeculum as the culture was shaken up finally figuring out who is dominant. Hopefully more in the political sphere than in the military sphere. If there is war with a foreign power in the 4T it is a backdrop to what is happening within the society.

It has been likened by myself and others on the forum that the current 4T is a cold civil war.  In the US at any rate the current 4T looks like it will be an internal affair, one which we should be approaching the climax too soon whether one places the start in 2001, 2005/6 or 2008.

The question really should be does the cold civil war ever go hot or does it peters out and the 1T whimpers in in a very un-high like manner.

If it peters out, and issues like AGW and wealth inequality are just left there to rot, the final resolution will not be so quiet.  When that occurs is not hard to guess: much sooner than the next 4T.  We can't tolerate that much climate alteration before the lid blows off, and wealth inequality is already starting to generate hate of the rich.  Letting them run will only intensify those feelings.

Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

Thankfully I'm only an early Civic so by the time the next crisis comes I'll be dead or almost dead. Once this crisis is over with I will think phew what a relief.

[pbrower2a]

(05-08-2019, 10:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

Possible, though unlikely.  We are advancing so quickly in all areas of technology, that something as bizarre as transhumanism may emerge before the next 4T.

I see global warming likely to inundate farmland and prime urban real estate with possible consequences of famine and legal anarchy (on property ownership). Much infrastructure will have to be rebuilt -- in new places. I see the potential of horrific war.

Quote:

Kinser79 Wrote:AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

I know better.  Global temperatures are rising for the simple reason that less heat is reradiated into space than the amount radiated in.  That will be true as long as the amount of CO2 remains higher than the ideal, and the global temperature hasn't yet reached stasis.  Plant growth can't fix that quickly enough, and total plant capacity is declining in any case.

As I said above... "King Neptune" will be seizing property as ruthlessly as a Bolshevik commissar. Carbon dioxide  will rise until the plants that can process it start appearing in large numbers in arctic and subarctic regions. Kinser does not understand the biological reality of carbon dioxide.

Quote:

Kinser79 Wrote:Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

When the head of the Disney Corporation makes 1,400 times the average salary of Disney workers, and no redress through labor action is possible -- especially for Disney World employees -- the largest part of the work force.  These so-called Right to Work laws have so totally bent the power curve in favor of capital and management, that some breakdown has been inevitable for a long time.  The imbalance I high enough now, that another major recession may be all it takes to trigger some massive action … hopefully peaceful, though no guarantee of that.

Wealth inequality and income inequality go together, and they can be so severe that they create mass resentments. The poor are much more vulnerable to any economic shock from inflation to shortages, and are more likely to fall for extremists and demagogues, Right and Left.

Economic inequality and plutocracy go together, too -- as shown in the power of corporate lobbyists responsible solely to their super-rich paymasters who monitor the voting of their effective subordinates, nominally-elected politicians who sell out to the richest supporters.

[David Horn]

(05-08-2019, 10:15 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Transhumanism is a bugbear that will never come to fruition.  As AI advances, it is far more likely to see us as in the way than to merge with us, or us with it.

Long before technology becomes sentient, we humans will add enhancements to ourselves. There is already preliminary work being done on that today, and some of it already works.

Kinser79 Wrote:If what you say is true then NASA should have no reason to manipulate their own figures on a regular basis.  BTW the hotest and dryest years on record occurred in the 1930s.  But what do we do know bout what the Sun is doing?  We do know that it has been releasing an increased amount of radiated heat and light. 

Now I could be a fool...but considering that 98% of the matter in the solar system are in the sun, I think it might, just might have more to do with the weather on earth than if I burn a log or burn a lump of coal today.

No, the hottest years on record have all been recent. Yes, the Dust Bowl years were hot and dry here, but not worldwide. No, the sun is not getting brighter either, though the 11 year solar cycle still applies.

There are many climate drivers, and CO2 is a weak one. That's why it is only now becoming important. Unlike most drivers, though, CO2 is still growing in quantity.

Kinser79 Wrote:I've been in a Union.  I've been a scab.  I've also been the owner of my own business.  Unions provide nothing to the working class.  The goal of every worker should be at some point to become the owner of their own business.  One doesn't become rich, or even well off working and creating wealth for others.

That being said, as a business owner, I'm looking to install new order taking kiosks. Automation is coming for everyone's job.

So you're done with the proletariat now that you are no longer one of them yourself.

[Kinser79]

(05-08-2019, 06:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-08-2019, 10:15 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Transhumanism is a bugbear that will never come to fruition.  As AI advances, it is far more likely to see us as in the way than to merge with us, or us with it.

Long before technology becomes sentient, we humans will add enhancements to ourselves.  There is already preliminary work being done on that today, and some of it already works.

Kinser79 Wrote:If what you say is true then NASA should have no reason to manipulate their own figures on a regular basis.  BTW the hotest and dryest years on record occurred in the 1930s.  But what do we do know bout what the Sun is doing?  We do know that it has been releasing an increased amount of radiated heat and light. 

Now I could be a fool...but considering that 98% of the matter in the solar system are in the sun, I think it might, just might have more to do with the weather on earth than if I burn a log or burn a lump of coal today.

No, the hottest years on record have all been recent.  Yes, the Dust Bowl years were hot and dry here, but not worldwide.  No, the sun is not getting brighter either, though the 11 year solar cycle still applies.  

There are many climate drivers, and CO2 is a weak one.  That's why it is only now becoming important.  Unlike most drivers, though, CO2 is still growing in quantity.

Kinser79 Wrote:I've been in a Union.  I've been a scab.  I've also been the owner of my own business.  Unions provide nothing to the working class.  The goal of every worker should be at some point to become the owner of their own business.  One doesn't become rich, or even well off working and creating wealth for others.

That being said, as a business owner, I'm looking to install new order taking kiosks.  Automation is coming for everyone's job.

So you're done with the proletariat now that you are no longer one of them yourself.  

I've seen little in the way of these "enhancements" you speak of.  Mostly work is being done on building better hearing aids and maybe restoring sight to those who have lost it.  That isn't so much attempting to make something beyond human as restoring normal functionality to dysfunctional systems a individual human may have.

On Climate Data:

https://principia-scientific.org/nasa-ex...ata-fraud/

CO2 is incredibly weak as a driver of the climate.  The Sun is far far stronger and solar output is increasing.

https://www.space.com/2942-sun-activity-...firms.html

Since PBR commented on plants, the numbskull obviously doesn't understand that the lungs of the planet are not the forest (yeah they make oxygen too and are pretty) but rather the Oceans or rather the phyto-plankton in the oceans.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news...le-credit/

The Left has even stopped calling it "global warming" because quite frankly the planet isn't warming enough.  One should always be wary of those who are attempting to sell doom and gloom.  They are as dangerous, in fact probably more so than those who are claiming everything is fine.

My class interest is to maximize my profits as much as possible.  Having superfluous staff does not do that and is thus not in my interest.  But even when I was a communist I had little use for unions in the American Context.

[Kinser79]

As a late Nomad, I hope to die before the Neo-Prophets get out of the "Annoying Mr. Wilson" phase. One generation of annoying idealists is more than enough. Crisis...I can handle crisis.

Also due to the Mega-Crisis be prepared for a wild ride.

[pbrower2a]

(05-09-2019, 01:29 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: On Climate Data:

https://principia-scientific.org/nasa-ex...ata-fraud/

CO2 is incredibly weak as a driver of the climate.  The Sun is far far stronger and solar output is increasing.

https://www.space.com/2942-sun-activity-...firms.html

Since PBR commented on plants, the numbskull obviously doesn't understand that the lungs of the planet are not the forest (yeah they make oxygen too and are pretty) but rather the Oceans or rather the phyto-plankton in the oceans.

Carbon dioxide is a powerful contributor to global warming, but it is less variable  than some other gases either rarer (chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride of human creation; methane which may be released from methane clathrates) or the highly-variable water vapor. How variable is the atmospheric water vapor? As much as a factor of 5000, depending on temperature from the coldest, driest air around sea level (typically around -42 C
in parts of Siberia in the winter) to the most juiced air known around the Persian Gulf (a shallow body of water on the fringe of the tropics) in the summer. The greenhouse effect hardly exists in polar areas, but it can be very strong in tropical and subtropical areas.

(I was using "plants" to include phytoplankton and algae).

Quote:The Left has even stopped calling it "global warming" because quite frankly the planet isn't warming enough.  One should always be wary of those who are attempting to sell doom and gloom.  They are as dangerous, in fact probably more so than those who are claiming everything is fine.

My class interest is to maximize my profits as much as possible.  Having superfluous staff does not do that and is thus not in my interest.  But even when I was a communist I had little use for unions in the American Context.

The Earth need not warm much for its ecosystems to be in trouble. Any inundation of the Earth's lowlands stands to create economic problems -- and even legal anarchy involving ownership of property. A Pangloss may say things such as "Hooray! We won't need to shovel so much snow!"-- in ignorance of the role of snow protecting soil moisture from evaporation and providing melt water for tender shoots of plants. The corn in your corn flakes and the wheat in your shredded wheat depend upon winter blizzards to allow maximal growth. For good reason much of the cereal industry is located in Battle Creek, Michigan -- the rough border between the corn and wheat belts. Global warmi9ng would take away the blizzards, with more of the winter precipitation becoming rain that flows away instead of covering the soil and becoming available to plants in the spring.

[Hintergrund]

(05-07-2019, 11:38 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I was reviewing the old archived Roman thread.  Kurt Horner had listed these Roman turnings:

158-137 BC.  3T (fall of Carthage)

137-115 BC.  4T  Land Reform and Constitutional Crisis

115-93 BC.    1T (build up to social wars)

Wouldn't the Germanic invasion make more sense for a 4T?

Also, our problem is: The old Silents are still alive, so they keep the old world in suspended animation. Without the old world dying, the new world can't be born.

[Kinser79]

I don't think the problem is the Silents. Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it. And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

It isn't Moses' mother who didn't cross into the promised land, it was Moses himself.

[AspieMillennial]

(05-09-2019, 07:51 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: As a late Nomad, I hope to die before the Neo-Prophets get out of the "Annoying Mr. Wilson" phase. One generation of annoying idealists is more than enough. Crisis...I can handle crisis.

Also due to the Mega-Crisis be prepared for a wild ride.

I don't care as much because I'll be dead by the next mega crisis that's caused by future breakdowns. Some other people will have to deal with that.

[Kinser79]

I think you're misunderstanding what I mean by a Mega-Crisis. What I mean is that you'll have an entire saeculum of learching from one crisis to the next until it is resolved in a catastrophic 4T.

I mean catastrophic in the sense that the world order as we can possibly conceive of it now will be utterly destroyed. I also see lots of death being necessary to bring it about too.

According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

[Hintergrund]

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I don't think the problem is the Silents. Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it. And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

You have a point here, though.

(05-15-2019, 02:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.

[sbarrera]

(05-18-2019, 07:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I don't think the problem is the Silents.  Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it.  And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

You have a point here, though.

(05-15-2019, 02:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.

I agree that there are many powerful Silents today and that the older generations are keeping the old order on life support; this may be why this 4T seems to be dragging on without reaching the regeneracy.

However, I don't agree that the political system of the US wasn't changed much in the last Crisis; the New Deal was a big change. It created a vast regulatory bureaucracy which arguably has an extra-constitutional legislative function. The right has a problem with this bureaucracy in part because they see it as operating outside of the constitution (and of just being too freedom limiting). The left can argue that the bureaucracy, while in the executive function, is given its powers by legislation. Trumpism seems intent on tearing down the New Deal while asserting government power in specific focused areas (immigration, trade).

[AspieMillennial]

(05-26-2019, 10:59 AM)sbarrera Wrote:

(05-18-2019, 07:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I don't think the problem is the Silents.  Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it.  And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

You have a point here, though.

(05-15-2019, 02:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.

I agree that there are many powerful Silents today and that the older generations are keeping the old order on life support; this may be why this 4T seems to be dragging on without reaching the regeneracy.

However, I don't agree that the political system of the US wasn't changed much in the last Crisis; the New Deal was a big change. It created a vast regulatory bureaucracy which arguably has an extra-constitutional legislative function. The right has a problem with this bureaucracy in part because they see it as operating outside of the constitution (and of just being too freedom limiting). The left can argue that the bureaucracy, while in the executive function, is given its powers by legislation. Trumpism seems intent on tearing down the New Deal while asserting government power in specific focused areas (immigration, trade).

Maybe Trump is the regeneracy. I predict this new order will be about making America great and focusing on our own country rather than expansionism, big wars, free trade, or globalism.

[pbrower2a]

Don't make a slogan an objective or assume that a politician will achieve it, especially if it has glaring ambiguity. Donald Trump makes the slogan the focus and he gets to decide what it means. People may love the slogan because they think that they know what it means -- but Donald Trump is its arbiter.

So what did you like about the past? In my case, not white racism in which a WASP elite got all the opportunities and others got the responsibilities. Certainly not the heterosexist male chauvinism even if I am male and straight. The absence of scientific and technological achievements that we now take for granted? of course not. Will anyone miss polio or smallpox? Not in the least. If I must take a long-distance trip, I prefer the Interstates even if they are mostly bland and monotonous -- and not the old blood alleys. Seat belts and collapsible steering wheels? I certainly don't want to be impaled on a steering wheel or get thrown into a windshield or a tree. It's a good thing that we have Social Security and Medicare so that older people don't simply work until they die in industrial accidents. Workers completely under the thrall of corporate overlords as they were when labor unions were either absent or impotent? Hell no!

So what was different that was better? In some ways life was easier with more certainties. The opportunities were still for the taking. Real estate was cheaper, and commutes were not so long. But we have about twice the population that we had in the 1950s, so we have more competition for jobs, real estate, and first-rate education. Urban and suburban sprawl is ugly.

So imagine a Klansman disgusted with homosexuals having marital rights, open miscegenation in plain sight (Heidi Klum -- really disgusting if you are a white racist), influential Jews and 'papists' corrupting America, blacks not consigned to farm labor and domestic service if as adults and if as children condemned to segregated education that prepares youth for nothing other than servility and toil, a fast-growing Mexican-American population, South and East Asians acting as if they are the intellectual and commercial superiors to white people, working people in industry not living in destitution despite toiling 70-80 hours a week.... I can just imagine 'greatness' as the dreams of the American economic elites of the 1920s.

Monopolists having control of the economy and the government? America worked its way out of that about a century ago. But that is the dream of the cultists of Ayn Rand and much of the mainstream of the Republican Party.

We need not seek to impose some idea of greatness. We need to return to some old decencies. We need to recognize objective reality as a barrier to radical ideas that have never worked before and never will here. We need only be good and accept the value of rational thought as a tool for problem-solving. We need to divest ourselves of cruelty, superstition, and intellectual laziness.

As G.K. Chesterton put it, before you tear down a fence make sure that you know why the fence is there. I see the most intellectually-superficial President ever, one intent on radical changes in American life even if for objectives that most people associate with corporate conservatism and a nostalgia for an America in which life was easier (because there were fewer people and thus less dog-eat-dog competition). The middle-class dream of factory workers being able to live in places with congenial climates and own bungalows with two-car garages is probably gone forever solely due to the economics of a population twice as large.

[Eric the Green]

(05-26-2019, 11:42 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(05-26-2019, 10:59 AM)sbarrera Wrote:

(05-18-2019, 07:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I don't think the problem is the Silents.  Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it.  And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

You have a point here, though.

(05-15-2019, 02:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.

I agree that there are many powerful Silents today and that the older generations are keeping the old order on life support; this may be why this 4T seems to be dragging on without reaching the regeneracy.

However, I don't agree that the political system of the US wasn't changed much in the last Crisis; the New Deal was a big change. It created a vast regulatory bureaucracy which arguably has an extra-constitutional legislative function. The right has a problem with this bureaucracy in part because they see it as operating outside of the constitution (and of just being too freedom limiting). The left can argue that the bureaucracy, while in the executive function, is given its powers by legislation. Trumpism seems intent on tearing down the New Deal while asserting government power in specific focused areas (immigration, trade).

Maybe Trump is the regeneracy. I predict this new order will be about making America great and focusing on our own country rather than expansionism, big wars, free trade, or globalism.

That is how Trump fooled the people, saying he was for this focus on our country. But he has hired warmongers as his top advisors, like John Bolton, and is supporting a deadly proxy war against Iran in Yemen, is threatening Iran, is supporting Israel's genocide against Palestinians, was threatening North Korea, is carrying out a sanction campaign that is hurting the people of Venezuela, is expanding our military so we can win so many more wars that we'll get tired of winning, and carried out the war on the IS in a more deadly way. And focusing on our country by weakening our alliances only allows anti-American powers to gain more influence in the world, rather than just stopping the expansion of our world role. This does not help our economy either.

As far as focusing on our own country is concerned, yes he has started debilitating trade wars not only against China, but against nations that are on our level like in Europe, against which no trade wars are needed. And his focus on our country is only about letting big polluters destroy our water, our lands and our national monuments, and giving huge tax breaks to the oligarchy, which has resulted in no benefits to most taxpayers. This continuation of Reaganomics on steroids is not responsible for any economic benefit for our country, but only to the same global corporations he supposedly doesn't want to expand.

[AspieMillennial]

(05-27-2019, 09:53 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-26-2019, 11:42 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(05-26-2019, 10:59 AM)sbarrera Wrote:

(05-18-2019, 07:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote:

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I don't think the problem is the Silents.  Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it.  And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

You have a point here, though.

(05-15-2019, 02:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.

I agree that there are many powerful Silents today and that the older generations are keeping the old order on life support; this may be why this 4T seems to be dragging on without reaching the regeneracy.

However, I don't agree that the political system of the US wasn't changed much in the last Crisis; the New Deal was a big change. It created a vast regulatory bureaucracy which arguably has an extra-constitutional legislative function. The right has a problem with this bureaucracy in part because they see it as operating outside of the constitution (and of just being too freedom limiting). The left can argue that the bureaucracy, while in the executive function, is given its powers by legislation. Trumpism seems intent on tearing down the New Deal while asserting government power in specific focused areas (immigration, trade).

Maybe Trump is the regeneracy. I predict this new order will be about making America great and focusing on our own country rather than expansionism, big wars, free trade, or globalism.

That is how Trump fooled the people, saying he was for this focus on our country. But he has hired warmongers as his top advisors, like John Bolton, and is supporting a deadly proxy war against Iran in Yemen, is threatening Iran, is supporting Israel's genocide against Palestinians, was threatening North Korea, is carrying out a sanction campaign that is hurting the people of Venezuela, is expanding our military so we can win so many more wars that we'll get tired of winning, and carried out the war on the IS in a more deadly way. And focusing on our country by weakening our alliances only allows anti-American powers to gain more influence in the world, rather than just stopping the expansion of our world role. This does not help our economy either.

As far as focusing on our own country is concerned, yes he has started debilitating trade wars not only against China, but against nations that are on our level like in Europe, against which no trade wars are needed. And his focus on our country is only about letting big polluters destroy our water, our lands and our national monuments, and giving huge tax breaks to the oligarchy, which has resulted in no benefits to most taxpayers. This continuation of Reaganomics on steroids is not responsible for any economic benefit for our country, but only to the same global corporations he supposedly doesn't want to expand.

I think we shouldn't go to war with these countries. I disagree with him there and think he's acting dangerous though. We don't need all these wars for no reason. Sadly both the Republicans and Democrats are war mongers right now. I do want some tariffs and hard migration limits though. We can't compete with slave labor wages in the third world without sinking ourselves. It's impossible. I think tariffs are one of the only ways to save working class from globalism. Cheap products can be made here through automation with some people in the factories and more expensive products can be made here though different means.

[Eric the Green]

(05-27-2019, 10:16 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(05-27-2019, 09:53 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-26-2019, 11:42 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(05-26-2019, 10:59 AM)sbarrera Wrote:

(05-18-2019, 07:24 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html


You have a point here, though.


Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.

I agree that there are many powerful Silents today and that the older generations are keeping the old order on life support; this may be why this 4T seems to be dragging on without reaching the regeneracy.

However, I don't agree that the political system of the US wasn't changed much in the last Crisis; the New Deal was a big change. It created a vast regulatory bureaucracy which arguably has an extra-constitutional legislative function. The right has a problem with this bureaucracy in part because they see it as operating outside of the constitution (and of just being too freedom limiting). The left can argue that the bureaucracy, while in the executive function, is given its powers by legislation. Trumpism seems intent on tearing down the New Deal while asserting government power in specific focused areas (immigration, trade).

Maybe Trump is the regeneracy. I predict this new order will be about making America great and focusing on our own country rather than expansionism, big wars, free trade, or globalism.

That is how Trump fooled the people, saying he was for this focus on our country. But he has hired warmongers as his top advisors, like John Bolton, and is supporting a deadly proxy war against Iran in Yemen, is threatening Iran, is supporting Israel's genocide against Palestinians, was threatening North Korea, is carrying out a sanction campaign that is hurting the people of Venezuela, is expanding our military so we can win so many more wars that we'll get tired of winning, and carried out the war on the IS in a more deadly way. And focusing on our country by weakening our alliances only allows anti-American powers to gain more influence in the world, rather than just stopping the expansion of our world role. This does not help our economy either.

As far as focusing on our own country is concerned, yes he has started debilitating trade wars not only against China, but against nations that are on our level like in Europe, against which no trade wars are needed. And his focus on our country is only about letting big polluters destroy our water, our lands and our national monuments, and giving huge tax breaks to the oligarchy, which has resulted in no benefits to most taxpayers. This continuation of Reaganomics on steroids is not responsible for any economic benefit for our country, but only to the same global corporations he supposedly doesn't want to expand.

I think we shouldn't go to war with these countries. I disagree with him there and think he's acting dangerous though. We don't need all these wars for no reason. Sadly both the Republicans and Democrats are war mongers right now. I do want some tariffs and hard migration limits though. We can't compete with slave labor wages in the third world without sinking ourselves. It's impossible. I think tariffs are one of the only ways to save working class from globalism. Cheap products can be made here through automation with some people in the factories and more expensive products can be made here through different means.

I don't disagree; sensible tariffs should be applied on countries to which our companies send our jobs overseas for cheap labor and cheap regulations. But migrants are often scapegoats for low wages. Most only compete for the low wage jobs, are not paid fairly, and add to the economy through being customers and eventually businessmen and women and good workers. However Trump's migration policy is worrisome. He wants a merit system, which means he wants migrants to be people who would compete with those who get high salaries and wages.