Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Compare this 4T to others
#21
(05-07-2019, 09:39 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-06-2019, 04:00 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-02-2019, 06:41 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That's another good comparison in line with the 1850s redux. I'm learning that a 4T is really invariably some version of a civil conflict between factions. It's the factions that were formed throughout the saeculum as the culture was shaken up finally figuring out who is dominant. Hopefully more in the political sphere than in the military sphere. If there is war with a foreign power in the 4T it is a backdrop to what is happening within the society.

It has been likened by myself and others on the forum that the current 4T is a cold civil war.  In the US at any rate the current 4T looks like it will be an internal affair, one which we should be approaching the climax too soon whether one places the start in 2001, 2005/6 or 2008.

The question really should be does the cold civil war ever go hot or does it peters out and the 1T whimpers in in a very un-high like manner.

If it peters out, and issues like AGW and wealth inequality are just left there to rot, the final resolution will not be so quiet.  When that occurs is not hard to guess: much sooner than the next 4T.  We can't tolerate that much climate alteration before the lid blows off, and wealth inequality is already starting to generate hate of the rich.  Letting them run will only intensify those feelings.

Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
Reply
#22
(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

Possible, though unlikely. We are advancing so quickly in all areas of technology, that something as bizarre as transhumanism may emerge before the next 4T.

Kinser79 Wrote:AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

I know better. Global temperatures are rising for the simple reason that less heat is reradiated into space than the amount radiated in. That will be true as long as the amount of CO2 remains higher than the ideal, and the global temperature hasn't yet reached stasis. Plant growth can't fix that quickly enough, and total plant capacity is declining in any case.

Kinser79 Wrote:Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

When the head of the Disney Corporation makes 1,400 times the average salary of Disney workers, and no redress through labor action is possible -- especially for Disney World employees -- the largest part of the work force. These so-called Right to Work laws have so totally bent the power curve in favor of capital and management, that some breakdown has been inevitable for a long time. The imbalance I high enough now, that another major recession may be all it takes to trigger some massive action … hopefully peaceful, though no guarantee of that.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
#23
(05-08-2019, 10:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

Possible, though unlikely.  We are advancing so quickly in all areas of technology, that something as bizarre as transhumanism may emerge before the next 4T.

Kinser79 Wrote:AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

I know better.  Global temperatures are rising for the simple reason that less heat is reradiated into space than the amount radiated in.  That will be true as long as the amount of CO2 remains higher than the ideal, and the global temperature hasn't yet reached stasis.  Plant growth can't fix that quickly enough, and total plant capacity is declining in any case.

Kinser79 Wrote:Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

When the head of the Disney Corporation makes 1,400 times the average salary of Disney workers, and no redress through labor action is possible -- especially for Disney World employees -- the largest part of the work force.  These so-called Right to Work laws have so totally bent the power curve in favor of capital and management, that some breakdown has been inevitable for a long time.  The imbalance I high enough now, that another major recession may be all it takes to trigger some massive action … hopefully peaceful, though no guarantee of that.

Transhumanism is a bugbear that will never come to fruition.  As AI advances, it is far more likely to see us as in the way than to merge with us, or us with it.

If what you say is true then NASA should have no reason to manipulate their own figures on a regular basis.  BTW the hotest and dryest years on record occurred in the 1930s.  But what do we do know bout what the Sun is doing?  We do know that it has been releasing an increased amount of radiated heat and light. 

Now I could be a fool...but considering that 98% of the matter in the solar system are in the sun, I think it might, just might have more to do with the weather on earth than if I burn a log or burn a lump of coal today.


I've been in a Union.  I've been a scab.  I've also been the owner of my own business.  Unions provide nothing to the working class.  The goal of every worker should be at some point to become the owner of their own business.  One doesn't become rich, or even well off working and creating wealth for others.

That being said, as a business owner, I'm looking to install new order taking kiosks.  Automation is coming for everyone's job..
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
Reply
#24
(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-07-2019, 09:39 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-06-2019, 04:00 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-02-2019, 06:41 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That's another good comparison in line with the 1850s redux. I'm learning that a 4T is really invariably some version of a civil conflict between factions. It's the factions that were formed throughout the saeculum as the culture was shaken up finally figuring out who is dominant. Hopefully more in the political sphere than in the military sphere. If there is war with a foreign power in the 4T it is a backdrop to what is happening within the society.

It has been likened by myself and others on the forum that the current 4T is a cold civil war.  In the US at any rate the current 4T looks like it will be an internal affair, one which we should be approaching the climax too soon whether one places the start in 2001, 2005/6 or 2008.

The question really should be does the cold civil war ever go hot or does it peters out and the 1T whimpers in in a very un-high like manner.

If it peters out, and issues like AGW and wealth inequality are just left there to rot, the final resolution will not be so quiet.  When that occurs is not hard to guess: much sooner than the next 4T.  We can't tolerate that much climate alteration before the lid blows off, and wealth inequality is already starting to generate hate of the rich.  Letting them run will only intensify those feelings.

Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

Thankfully I'm only an early Civic so by the time the next crisis comes I'll be dead or almost dead. Once this crisis is over with I will think phew what a relief.
Reply
#25
(05-08-2019, 10:01 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

Possible, though unlikely.  We are advancing so quickly in all areas of technology, that something as bizarre as transhumanism may emerge before the next 4T.

I see global warming likely to inundate farmland and prime urban real estate with possible consequences of famine and legal anarchy (on property ownership). Much infrastructure will have to be rebuilt -- in new places. I see the potential of horrific war.

Quote:
Kinser79 Wrote:AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

I know better.  Global temperatures are rising for the simple reason that less heat is reradiated into space than the amount radiated in.  That will be true as long as the amount of CO2 remains higher than the ideal, and the global temperature hasn't yet reached stasis.  Plant growth can't fix that quickly enough, and total plant capacity is declining in any case.


As I said above... "King Neptune" will be seizing property as ruthlessly as a Bolshevik commissar. Carbon dioxide  will rise until the plants that can process it start appearing in large numbers in arctic and subarctic regions. Kinser does not understand the biological reality of carbon dioxide.

Quote:
Kinser79 Wrote:Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

When the head of the Disney Corporation makes 1,400 times the average salary of Disney workers, and no redress through labor action is possible -- especially for Disney World employees -- the largest part of the work force.  These so-called Right to Work laws have so totally bent the power curve in favor of capital and management, that some breakdown has been inevitable for a long time.  The imbalance I high enough now, that another major recession may be all it takes to trigger some massive action … hopefully peaceful, though no guarantee of that.

Wealth inequality and income inequality go together, and they can be so severe that they create mass resentments. The poor are much more vulnerable to any economic shock from inflation to shortages, and are more likely to fall for extremists and demagogues, Right and Left.

Economic inequality and plutocracy go together, too -- as shown in the power of corporate lobbyists responsible solely to their super-rich paymasters who monitor the voting of their effective subordinates, nominally-elected politicians who sell out to the richest supporters.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#26
(05-08-2019, 10:15 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Transhumanism is a bugbear that will never come to fruition.  As AI advances, it is far more likely to see us as in the way than to merge with us, or us with it.

Long before technology becomes sentient, we humans will add enhancements to ourselves. There is already preliminary work being done on that today, and some of it already works.

Kinser79 Wrote:If what you say is true then NASA should have no reason to manipulate their own figures on a regular basis.  BTW the hotest and dryest years on record occurred in the 1930s.  But what do we do know bout what the Sun is doing?  We do know that it has been releasing an increased amount of radiated heat and light. 

Now I could be a fool...but considering that 98% of the matter in the solar system are in the sun, I think it might, just might have more to do with the weather on earth than if I burn a log or burn a lump of coal today.

No, the hottest years on record have all been recent. Yes, the Dust Bowl years were hot and dry here, but not worldwide. No, the sun is not getting brighter either, though the 11 year solar cycle still applies.

There are many climate drivers, and CO2 is a weak one. That's why it is only now becoming important. Unlike most drivers, though, CO2 is still growing in quantity.

Kinser79 Wrote:I've been in a Union.  I've been a scab.  I've also been the owner of my own business.  Unions provide nothing to the working class.  The goal of every worker should be at some point to become the owner of their own business.  One doesn't become rich, or even well off working and creating wealth for others.

That being said, as a business owner, I'm looking to install new order taking kiosks. Automation is coming for everyone's job.

So you're done with the proletariat now that you are no longer one of them yourself. Big Grin
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
#27
(05-08-2019, 06:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-08-2019, 10:15 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Transhumanism is a bugbear that will never come to fruition.  As AI advances, it is far more likely to see us as in the way than to merge with us, or us with it.

Long before technology becomes sentient, we humans will add enhancements to ourselves.  There is already preliminary work being done on that today, and some of it already works.

Kinser79 Wrote:If what you say is true then NASA should have no reason to manipulate their own figures on a regular basis.  BTW the hotest and dryest years on record occurred in the 1930s.  But what do we do know bout what the Sun is doing?  We do know that it has been releasing an increased amount of radiated heat and light. 

Now I could be a fool...but considering that 98% of the matter in the solar system are in the sun, I think it might, just might have more to do with the weather on earth than if I burn a log or burn a lump of coal today.

No, the hottest years on record have all been recent.  Yes, the Dust Bowl years were hot and dry here, but not worldwide.  No, the sun is not getting brighter either, though the 11 year solar cycle still applies.  

There are many climate drivers, and CO2 is a weak one.  That's why it is only now becoming important.  Unlike most drivers, though, CO2 is still growing in quantity.

Kinser79 Wrote:I've been in a Union.  I've been a scab.  I've also been the owner of my own business.  Unions provide nothing to the working class.  The goal of every worker should be at some point to become the owner of their own business.  One doesn't become rich, or even well off working and creating wealth for others.

That being said, as a business owner, I'm looking to install new order taking kiosks.  Automation is coming for everyone's job.

So you're done with the proletariat now that you are no longer one of them yourself.   Big Grin

I've seen little in the way of these "enhancements" you speak of.  Mostly work is being done on building better hearing aids and maybe restoring sight to those who have lost it.  That isn't so much attempting to make something beyond human as restoring normal functionality to dysfunctional systems a individual human may have.

On Climate Data:

https://principia-scientific.org/nasa-ex...ata-fraud/

CO2 is incredibly weak as a driver of the climate.  The Sun is far far stronger and solar output is increasing.

https://www.space.com/2942-sun-activity-...firms.html

Since PBR commented on plants, the numbskull obviously doesn't understand that the lungs of the planet are not the forest (yeah they make oxygen too and are pretty) but rather the Oceans or rather the phyto-plankton in the oceans.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news...le-credit/

The Left has even stopped calling it "global warming" because quite frankly the planet isn't warming enough.  One should always be wary of those who are attempting to sell doom and gloom.  They are as dangerous, in fact probably more so than those who are claiming everything is fine.

My class interest is to maximize my profits as much as possible.  Having superfluous staff does not do that and is thus not in my interest.  But even when I was a communist I had little use for unions in the American Context.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
Reply
#28
(05-08-2019, 12:49 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:
(05-08-2019, 09:13 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-07-2019, 09:39 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-06-2019, 04:00 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:
(05-02-2019, 06:41 AM)sbarrera Wrote: That's another good comparison in line with the 1850s redux. I'm learning that a 4T is really invariably some version of a civil conflict between factions. It's the factions that were formed throughout the saeculum as the culture was shaken up finally figuring out who is dominant. Hopefully more in the political sphere than in the military sphere. If there is war with a foreign power in the 4T it is a backdrop to what is happening within the society.

It has been likened by myself and others on the forum that the current 4T is a cold civil war.  In the US at any rate the current 4T looks like it will be an internal affair, one which we should be approaching the climax too soon whether one places the start in 2001, 2005/6 or 2008.

The question really should be does the cold civil war ever go hot or does it peters out and the 1T whimpers in in a very un-high like manner.

If it peters out, and issues like AGW and wealth inequality are just left there to rot, the final resolution will not be so quiet.  When that occurs is not hard to guess: much sooner than the next 4T.  We can't tolerate that much climate alteration before the lid blows off, and wealth inequality is already starting to generate hate of the rich.  Letting them run will only intensify those feelings.

Given that I expect the next saeculum to be what I call a Mega-Crisis I fully expect the current 4T to peter out.  It sets up an entire saeculum of going from one crisis, to an other until the whole currently modern order comes down in a bloody revolution.  Much like the French Revolution ended the Late Medieval order in 1789.

AGW is a non-issue really.  Climate change is real to be sure, but I think that the Sun has far more to do with it than burning coal.  Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is met with additional plants.  Indeed the Planet is greening in spite of the best efforts of the so-called environmentalists.

Wealth inequality is also a non-issue.  Wealth has never been equally distributed unless one's goal is to make everyone equally poor.  It is far easier to tear down those on the heights then it is to raise up the degraded.

Thankfully I'm only an early Civic so by the time the next crisis comes I'll be dead or almost dead. Once this crisis is over with I will think phew what a relief.
As a fellow early civic I give this an a freaking men. One crisis is more than enough in a lifetime.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






Reply
#29
As a late Nomad, I hope to die before the Neo-Prophets get out of the "Annoying Mr. Wilson" phase. One generation of annoying idealists is more than enough. Crisis...I can handle crisis.

Also due to the Mega-Crisis be prepared for a wild ride.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
Reply
#30
(05-09-2019, 01:29 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: On Climate Data:

https://principia-scientific.org/nasa-ex...ata-fraud/

CO2 is incredibly weak as a driver of the climate.  The Sun is far far stronger and solar output is increasing.

https://www.space.com/2942-sun-activity-...firms.html

Since PBR commented on plants, the numbskull obviously doesn't understand that the lungs of the planet are not the forest (yeah they make oxygen too and are pretty) but rather the Oceans or rather the phyto-plankton in the oceans.

Carbon dioxide is a powerful contributor to global warming, but it is less variable  than some other gases either rarer (chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride of human creation; methane which may be released from methane clathrates) or the highly-variable water vapor. How variable is the atmospheric water vapor? As much as a factor of 5000, depending on temperature from the coldest, driest air around sea level (typically around -42 C
in parts of Siberia in the winter) to the most juiced air known around the Persian Gulf (a shallow body of water on the fringe of the tropics) in the summer. The greenhouse effect hardly exists in polar areas, but it can be very strong in tropical and subtropical areas.

(I was using "plants" to include phytoplankton and algae).

Quote:The Left has even stopped calling it "global warming" because quite frankly the planet isn't warming enough.  One should always be wary of those who are attempting to sell doom and gloom.  They are as dangerous, in fact probably more so than those who are claiming everything is fine.

My class interest is to maximize my profits as much as possible.  Having superfluous staff does not do that and is thus not in my interest.  But even when I was a communist I had little use for unions in the American Context.

The Earth need not warm much for its ecosystems to be in trouble. Any inundation of the Earth's lowlands stands to create economic problems -- and even legal anarchy involving ownership of property. A Pangloss may say things such as "Hooray! We won't need to shovel so much snow!"-- in ignorance of the role of snow protecting soil moisture from evaporation and providing melt water for tender shoots of plants. The corn in your corn flakes and the wheat in your shredded wheat depend upon winter blizzards to allow maximal growth. For good reason much of the cereal industry is located in Battle Creek, Michigan -- the rough border between the corn and wheat belts. Global warmi9ng would take away the blizzards, with more of the winter precipitation becoming rain that flows away instead of covering the soil and becoming available to plants in the spring.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#31
(05-07-2019, 11:38 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I was reviewing the old archived Roman thread.  Kurt Horner had listed these Roman turnings:

158-137 BC.  3T (fall of Carthage)

137-115 BC.  4T  Land Reform and Constitutional Crisis

115-93 BC.    1T (build up to social wars)

Wouldn't the Germanic invasion make more sense for a 4T?

Also, our problem is: The old Silents are still alive, so they keep the old world in suspended animation. Without the old world dying, the new world can't be born.
Reply
#32
I don't think the problem is the Silents. Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it. And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

It isn't Moses' mother who didn't cross into the promised land, it was Moses himself.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
Reply
#33
(05-09-2019, 07:51 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: As a late Nomad, I hope to die before the Neo-Prophets get out of the "Annoying Mr. Wilson" phase. One generation of annoying idealists is more than enough. Crisis...I can handle crisis.

Also due to the Mega-Crisis be prepared for a wild ride.

I don't care as much because I'll be dead by the next mega crisis that's caused by future breakdowns. Some other people will have to deal with that.
Reply
#34
I think you're misunderstanding what I mean by a Mega-Crisis. What I mean is that you'll have an entire saeculum of learching from one crisis to the next until it is resolved in a catastrophic 4T.

I mean catastrophic in the sense that the world order as we can possibly conceive of it now will be utterly destroyed. I also see lots of death being necessary to bring it about too.

According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.
It really is all mathematics.

Turn on to Daddy, Tune in to Nationalism, Drop out of UN/NATO/WTO/TPP/NAFTA/CAFTA Globalism.
Reply
#35
(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: I don't think the problem is the Silents. Most of them are very old and very out of touch and everyone but them knows it. And there are only a very few of them--seniority seems to matter in the House and Senate even if it counts for little elsewhere.

There are more than enough powerful Silents. One third of America's billionaires are. You can have a lot of influence via lobbyism. See my thread whether I forgot someone:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thread-5337.html

(05-15-2019, 01:38 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: Rather it seems like the remaining Boomers in the Legislature are keeping the old order alive and it is they who have to go before the 1T will dawn.

You have a point here, though.

(05-15-2019, 02:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: According to my hypothesis the last one was the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars.

Right again... the political system of the US wasn't changed too much by the last Crisis, even if many other things were.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)