Global warming

[David Horn]

(08-04-2019, 12:46 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Comment: it is my suspicion that a significant reduction in the Arctic ice sheet will have effects upon climatic patterns in North America. I would expect cold air masses to stay farther north and become less severe. That also means that winter snow packs will be less permanent in the winter, and that more ground moisture will flow off before crops start growing.  

As you notice, as the ice sheet retreats, grasses start growing even at its edges, and those, much darker than the white ice, maintain much more of the solar heating. The Greenland ice sheet is fossil ice not in equilibrium with climatic conditions of the last few thousand years; should it vanish in whole or part, it will not return.

That may not be true.  The polar ice cap was a more stable heat source/sink than the open water that replaced it.  The new model may involve a wobbly northern jet stream, and produce many more outflows of polar cold in the winter, with warmer uptakes elsewhere in the Arctic.  If so, then the eastern US will be subject to more cold spells, and the western US to fewer.  Greenland melting only makes that even worse.

[pbrower2a]

(08-05-2019, 11:52 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-04-2019, 12:46 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Comment: it is my suspicion that a significant reduction in the Greenland ice sheet will have effects upon climatic patterns in North America. I would expect cold air masses to stay farther north and become less severe. That also means that winter snow packs will be less permanent in the winter, and that more ground moisture will flow off before crops start growing.  

As you notice, as the ice sheet retreats, grasses start growing even at its edges, and those, much darker than the white ice, maintain much more of the solar heating. The Greenland ice sheet is fossil ice not in equilibrium with climatic conditions of the last few thousand years; should it vanish in whole or part, it will not return.

That may not be true.  The polar ice cap was a more stable heat source/sink than the open water that replaced it.  The new model may involve a wobbly northern jet stream, and produce many more outflows of polar cold in the winter, with warmer uptakes elsewhere in the Arctic.  If so, then the eastern US will be subject to more cold spells, and the western US to fewer.  Greenland melting only makes that even worse.

A correction has been made. The Arctic has a thin layer of ice, and its permanence is going in doubt. That is a different issue altogether.

I would guess that the disappearance or even major shrinkage of the Greenland Ice Sheet would change the wind patterns  by weakening the now-permanent high pressure dome over Greenland and promote a more westerly flow of air in eastern Canada and the eastern United States, most markedly during the winter. Cold waves from the northwest that the Greenland High shunts into eastern North America would become rarer.

As for an open Arctic Ocean, once the ice buffer disappears, the Arctic Ocean would become much warmer in the summer and give surrounding lands in the Arctic basin decidedly warmer summers... but beyond that I can say little more.

[Ragnarök_62]

(10-09-2018, 01:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The issue now is whether Trump's supreme court can block all efforts even at the state and local level, as well as his congress being unwilling to act.

Dunno about that.  However, Mr. Market looks like he's gonna do a number on this stupid shale oil/gas stuff.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/05/oil-pr...-meltdown/

[pbrower2a]

(08-05-2019, 07:22 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(10-09-2018, 01:29 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The issue now is whether Trump's supreme court can block all efforts even at the state and local level, as well as his congress being unwilling to act.

Dunno about that.  However, Mr. Market looks like he's gonna do a number on this stupid shale oil/gas stuff.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/05/oil-pr...-meltdown/

To rescue the oil industry, President Trump would need to find ways in which to compel people to consume more petroleum -- like putting heavy taxes on gas-sipping vehicles and electric vehicles, and banning or prohibitively taxing solar and wind power. Note that energy use plummeted worldwide as former 'socialist' countries started treating energy as a valuable resource than as a nearly-free good.

[pbrower2a]

One state: Michigan

All this week, Michigan Radio's Environment Report will be focusing on climate change and how it's already affecting us in the state of Michigan, and what's expected to change in the future. It's a huge crisis we face now — and that generations to come will face — and it will affect every aspect of our lives, from what we eat, to how we travel, to how we live inside our homes.

To start, climate change describes what is happening to our planet as certain gasses in the atmosphere block heat from escaping. This is due to an increase in greenhouse gases: primarily carbon dioxide, but also methane and some others. Whenever we produce and burn a fossil fuel like coal, natural gas, gasoline, diesel, and propane, we increase the concentration of greenhouse gasses. Forests naturally capture carbon dioxide, but humans are prone to clearing the world's forests.

Michigan Radio's Tracy Samilton joined Stateside to discuss the big picture for Michigan.
According to Samilton, we had a taste of what's to come in mid-July when we had three to four days of a nearly 100 degree heat index, which is a combination of heat plus humidity that feels incredibly oppressive. And it's dangerous, too.

"Imagine having that happen not just a handful of days a year, but up to 25 days a year," Samilton says. "The Union of Concerned Scientists says if we do nothing to curtail our emissions, that's in [Michigan's] future by mid-century. And 26 to 50 days of those extreme heat waves a year by late-century if we do nothing."

In Michigan, changes in climate are more than just warming temperatures. The state has seen an increase in heavy rain events, which has led to more flooding. Samilton says there's been a 14% increase in precipitation in the Great Lakes region since 1951. She says to expect that to continue and increase further.

"Weather is harder to predict than the temperature increases," Samilton said. "So, it could be back and forth. We could have years of really dry, hot summers in Michigan, with super wet springs. And we could have more lake effect snow in the winters, but as it continues to get warmer, we could have a lot more rain in the winter."
So what can we do? Samilton asked Richard Rood, who teaches climate change problem solving at the University of Michigan, that exact question. He tells his students to start running for local office.

Rood says local and city and state policies — and also regional, multi-state efforts — could really move the needle on energy efficiency, renewable energy, public transportation, and reforestation. And he says these local, state and regional efforts are especially crucial because the Trump administration is rolling back policies that address climate change.

Samilton says Michigan cities should also be working on emergency plans for situations that will be a result of climate change, such as dangerous temperatures and flooding.

The Environmental Law and Policy Center's Margrethe Kearney agrees with Rood about getting involved, particularly if your city doesn't have a climate change plan, or holding local officials responsible if the current plan is not meeting its goals.

"We can force the people who represent us in government and the companies who sell things to us, we can insist that they change the way they are responding to climate change, and that they take much more significant action," Kearney says. "And that, that bigger system change, I think, is where there can be a real impact on carbon emissions."

Michigan Radio and Stateside will be talking about environmental issues and how people are taking action on climate change all week. Follow along with us here.

(Subscribe to Stateside on iTunes, Google Play, or with this RSS link)

[pbrower2a]

OKJOKULL GLACIER, Iceland (AP) — It was a funeral for ice.

With poetry, moments of silence and political speeches about the urgent need to fight climate change, Icelandic officials, activists and others bade goodbye to what once was a glacier.

Icelandic geologist Oddur Sigurðsson pronounced the Okjokull glacier extinct about a decade ago. But on Sunday he brought a death certificate to the made-for-media memorial.

After about 100 people made a two-hour hike up a volcano, children installed a memorial plaque to the glacier, now called just “Ok,” minus the Icelandic word for glacier.

The glacier used to stretch six square miles (15 square kilometers), Sigurdsson said. Residents reminisced about drinking pure water thousands of years old from Ok.

“The symbolic death of a glacier is a warning to us, and we need action,” former Irish president Mary Robinson said.

This was Iceland’s first glacier to disappear. But Sigurdsson said all of the nation’s ice masses will be gone in 200 years.

https://apnews.com/94570962770142679993f9d4a8c9a4fa

[Eric the Green]

Climate emergency: world 'may have crossed tipping points’

Warning of ‘existential threat to civilisation’ as impacts lead to cascade of unstoppable events

Damian Carrington Environment editor

@dpcarrington
Wed 27 Nov 2019 13.00 EST

‘Part of the west Antarctic ice sheet may be in irreversible retreat,’ said one of the researchers.


‘Part of the west Antarctic ice sheet may be in irreversible retreat,’ said one of the researchers. Photograph: Handout/AFP/Getty

The world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points, according to a stark warning from scientists. This risk is “an existential threat to civilisation”, they say, meaning “we are in a state of planetary emergency”.

Tipping points are reached when particular impacts of global heating become unstoppable, such as the runaway loss of ice sheets or forests. In the past, extreme heating of 5C was thought necessary to pass tipping points, but the latest evidence suggests this could happen between 1C and 2C.


Scientists' warning: a cascade of climate tipping points is possible

Greenland ice sheet, Ice loss accelerating

Arctic sea ice, Reduction in area

Permafrost Thawing

Boreal forest, More fires and pests

Connectivity

Atlantic circulation: In slowdown since 1950s

Coral reefs, Large-scale die-offs

Amazon rainforest, Frequent droughts

Wilkes Basin,East Antarctica: Ice loss accelerating

West Antarctic ice sheet: Ice loss accelerating

Guardian graphic. Source: Lenton et al, Nature, 2019


The planet has already heated by 1C and the temperature is certain to rise further, due to past emissions and because greenhouse gas levels are still rising. The scientists further warn that one tipping point, such as the release of methane from thawing permafrost, may fuel others, leading to a cascade.

The researchers, writing in a commentary article in the journal Nature, acknowledge that the complex science of tipping points means great uncertainty remains. But they say the potential damage from the tipping points is so big and the time to act so short, that “to err on the side of danger is not a responsible option”. They call for urgent international action.

“A saving grace is that the rate at which damage accumulates from tipping could still be under our control to some extent,” they write. “The stability and resilience of our planet is in peril. International action – not just words – must reflect this.”

Prof Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, the lead author of the article, said: “We might already have crossed the threshold for a cascade of interrelated tipping points. The simple version is the schoolkids [striking for climate action] are right: we are seeing potentially irreversible changes in the climate system under way, or very close.”

“As a scientist, I just want to tell it how it is,” he said. “It is not trying to be alarmist, but trying to treat the whole climate change problem as a risk management problem. It is what I consider the common sense way.”

Phil Williamson at the University of East Anglia, who did not contribute to the article, said: “The prognosis by Tim Lenton and colleagues is, unfortunately, fully plausible: that we might have already lost control of the Earth’s climate.”

The new article comes as the UN warns action is very far from stopping global temperature rise, with the world currently on track for 3C-4C. The commentary lists nine tipping points that may have been activated.

The scientists report that 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been lost since 1970.

“We have this alarming evidence that part of the west Antarctic ice sheet may be in irreversible retreat,” said Lenton. “All the signals are that it is.” A similar situation appears to be occurring at the Wilkes basin in east Antarctica. The collapse of these ice sheets would eventually raise sea level by many metres.

The massive Greenland ice sheet was melting at an accelerating rate, the scientists said, while Arctic sea ice is shrinking fast. “Permafrost across the Arctic is beginning to irreversibly thaw and release carbon dioxide and methane,” they said.


The Gulf Stream current in the Atlantic, which warms Europe, has also slowed by 15% since the mid-20th century. “That is just about in the range of natural variability, but it is also hard to rule out that it is part of a longer downturn,” Lenton said.

The scientists report that 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been lost since 1970. The tipping point, where loss of forest leads to it drying out, could lie in the range 20%-40%, they said. In temperate forests, especially in North America, heating has triggered more fires and pest outbreaks, potentially turning some regions from a sink for carbon to a source. In the tropics, corals are predicted to be wiped out by 2C of heating.


Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a ‘hothouse’ state

A cascade of tipping points could occur because, for example, the melting of Arctic sea ice amplifies heating by exposing dark ocean that absorbs more sunlight. That may increase the melting of Greenland ice and permafrost areas. “Multiple risks can interact, with one change reinforcing another, and with warming of just a degree or two sufficient to result in dramatic cascading effects,” said Williamson.

Prof Martin Siegert, at Imperial College London, said: “The new work is valuable. They are being a little speculative, but maybe you need to be.” He pointed out that the extremely rapid rate at which CO2 was being pumped into the atmosphere was unlikely to have ever occurred on Earth before. “It may mean that tipping points can occur in unexpected ways as there is no geological precedent for this rate of CO2 change.”

The article reports that preliminary results from the latest climate models suggest global heating will be greater than expected, increasing the risk of tipping points. Prof Piers Forster, at the University of Leeds, disagreed on that point. However, he added: “I completely endorse their call for action. Although possibly low probability, the risks they identify are real.”

Lenton said action would still have real benefits, by slowing the impacts and giving more time for people to adapt. He said: “This article is not meant to be a counsel of despair. If we want to avoid the worst of these bad climate tipping points, we need to activate some positive social and economic tipping points [such as renewable energy] towards what should ultimately be a happier, flourishing, sustainable future for the generations to come.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/...SAyeyUq9tY

[pbrower2a]

My interpretation of how the changes could be. In southern Michigan, the climate of Kalamazoo and Battle Creek could go from Dfa (snowy winters and hot, rainy summers) to Dsa (snowy winters but hot, seriously-dry summers as in Salt Lake City today) to Csa (cool, rainy winters and hot, seriously-dry summers as in Sacramento today) due to the proximity of Lake Michigan and the disappearance of summer rainstorms. Detroit might be just rainy enough in the summer to be more like Dallas or Oklahoma City.

A city near the Dfb (snowy winters but simply warm, rainy summers) -Dfa boundary, like Grand Rapids or Flint might go from having warm, rainy summers to having seriously-hot, dry summers before making the transition to having rainy winters and hot, seriously dry summers as the summer storms disappear. The Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula might simply start having longer, hotter summers while winters get milder.

Dry summers in a place that gets adequate rainfall in other times of the year can be very productive places for agriculture -- if water is available for irrigation. The Great Lakes are low enough in salt for animals and people to drink, but too salty for irrigation. The rich agriculture of California's Central Valley depends upon water impounded in catchment basins in the Sierra. Michigan does not have high mountains and narrow valleys suitable for reservoirs.

(old post corrected for errors)

[David Horn]

(11-28-2019, 04:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Climate emergency: world 'may have crossed tipping points’

Warning of ‘existential threat to civilisation’ as impacts lead to cascade of unstoppable events

...

It's truly sad that the world is moving into two camps: one actively trying to fix what's broken, and the other actively doing just the opposite.  The screw-the-world crowd thinks things will be just fine, and most will be dead long before the disasters arrive in earnest.   I have no idea how to change that one iota.  

[pbrower2a]

(12-01-2019, 09:23 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-28-2019, 04:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Climate emergency: world 'may have crossed tipping points’

Warning of ‘existential threat to civilisation’ as impacts lead to cascade of unstoppable events

...

It's truly sad that the world is moving into two camps: one actively trying to fix what's broken, and the other actively doing just the opposite.  The screw-the-world crowd thinks things will be just fine, and most will be dead long before the disasters arrive in earnest.   I have no idea how to change that one iota.  

If I were to ask any people about the consequences of global warming, then it would be the agronomists. The world depends heavily upon rich grain production in the north-central United States, the Canadian Prairie Provinces, east-central South America, and Ukraine for the foodstuffs that people not subsistence farmers eat. We are capable of techno-fixes for just about every problem except hunger. Food production is finely tuned for conditions that now exist. Should the world run out of oil, then I can hardly imagine any better place for the production of solar energy than Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Libya, Iran, and Iraq, major oil producers, will also be suitable for that. So will the Australian Outback, Namibia, and Botswana, South Africa, and the American Southwest, not to mention Egypt and Pakistan which also have hot deserts but little energy production. 

We cannot charge ourselves with solar power; we must eat either plants or animals that have eaten either plants or a succession of creatures whose foundation is plants that have synthesized carbohydrates out of carbon dioxide, water, and solar energy. Synthesizing foodstuffs might be possible, but that will be economically feasible for a smaller population. Nobody wants to be part of the population that will be obliterated. 

Maybe Humanity can adapt to a slow, pole-ward migration of climatic zones and an increasing inundation of fertile lowlands. Before someone speaks of wheat fields and potato farms in Alaska, one needs also contemplate the time necessary for the soils to have the nutrients to allow such in Alaska. That will take a couple centuries at the least.

[pbrower2a]

Some news on Australian brush fires: southeastern Australia has been both freakishly hot and dry; in deed 2019 has been the hottest  year in both Victoria and New South Wales ever.  

Heat:



Precipitation:



Hot and dry... and eucalyptus sap burns like hydrocarbon fuel if it ever starts to burn. Eucalyptol has a flash point of 49 C (about 120F, which is easy to attain)

To be sure, the brush fires are not all natural in origin including reckless ignition and outright arson.

Quote:Two-dozen people have been arrested in Australia’s fire-ravaged state of New South Wales after police say they intentionally set fires amid one of the country’s worst bushfire seasons on record.

The 24 people are among 183 facing bushfire-related offenses in the southeastern state since Nov. 8 last year, New South Wales Police Force said Monday.

Authorities have confirmed 24 deaths due to the fires, including 18 in New South Wales. More than 1 billion animals are estimated to have been killed, as well.


Three NSW Rural Fire Service volunteer firefighters are among the dead.

Individuals found guilty of setting a bushfire in New South Wales can face up to 21 years in prison or up to 25 years if they’re found to have damaged property with the intent of endangering life. Lighting a fire during a total fire ban, failing to put out an intentionally lit fire, or failing to comply with a bush fire hazard reduction notice can result in up to 12 months in prison and/or a $5,500 fine, according to police.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/24-accuse...b859d18387

[Skabungus]

I live is rural, gun toting, Trump loving Michigan. At the store the other day, I heard a farmer who lives up the road from me complaining that climate change had just put his brother's cottage in Lake Michigan, because the 3 foot rise in lake level had eroded about 50 feet of beach in the past year. I kept my mouth shut because nobody likes to here "I told you so" In Miami it's becoming common for the sidewalks to get wet after the high tide: the water coming up from the ground. Salt water that is. My Aussie gaming friends haven't messaged in a couple weeks. Go figure.

Humankind seems to always wait until it's fifty eight minutes past eleven before getting its act together. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

People will continue to parse the facts and argue about syntax until the world comes down on their heads. It's just the way we do things.

I remain an optimist. In some ways I see it as a required cleansing. We have the ability to fix our situation in a matter of a decade, and we will, after much pain and suffering including the disappearance of entire nations, mass dislocations, famine and war. It will require much pain and suffering, but we'll get it together.

I look at S&H's work and recognize that, it speaks about a people, in a nation in a time gone by. The "givens" of their world view are soon to change. The very idea of nation state is becoming a blurry concept. Unrest, and fracture are the standard now, as opposed to the exception. I still find S&H a valuable tool, but I find myself wondering if they even considered an acceleration in the climate crisis of this magnitude. I doubt it.

[pbrower2a]

(01-10-2020, 08:26 AM)Skabungus Wrote: I live is rural, gun toting, Trump loving Michigan.  At the store the other day, I heard a farmer who lives up the road from me complaining that climate change had just put his brother's cottage in Lake Michigan, because the 3 foot rise in lake level had eroded about 50 feet of beach in the past year.  I kept my mouth shut because nobody likes to hear "I told you so"  In Miami it's becoming common for the sidewalks to get wet after the high tide: the water coming up from the ground.  Salt water that is. My Aussie gaming friends haven't messaged in a couple weeks.  Go figure.

Levels of the Great Lakes have nothing to do with global warming except that above 4C (39F) water expands as it warms.  Excess water in any of the Great Lakes flows toward the St. Lawrence Seaway. One or more of the Great Lakes (especially Michigan or Huron) could expand, but only of some land shift (an earthquake) blocks an outlet such as the St. Clair or Detroit River, in which case Lakes Huron and Lake Michigan to flow through Chicago instead. The post-glacial lake that preceded Lake Michigan drained through the Chicago River into the Chicago River, the Des Plaines River, and the Illinois River; such could happen again.  More likely is that climate change shifts the grain belts  so that the border between the corn and wheat belts goes through Mount Pleasant instead of Battle Creek. (The big cereal-processing plants are in Battle Creek because of the wheat and grain belts have their boundary there).  Crop production could fall as soil moisture becomes less reliable due to the absence of a real winter -- and even more so if summer rains start to fail. I have seen conflicting stories on whether southern Michigan would become more like Kentucky (Cfa -- no real dry season, but above-freezing winters) or like the Sacramento Valley (Csa -- hot dry summers but rainy, chilly winters). 

By all means, mail something to your Aussie friends. They will appreciate it. Even a card is more durable -- far more durable -- than an e-mail message. 

Quote:Humankind seems to always wait until it's fifty eight minutes past eleven before getting its act together.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8

People will continue to parse the facts and argue about syntax until the world comes down on their heads.  It's just the way we do things.

The American economy is run by right-wing authoritarians in the position of demanding that everyone else make the world as the economic elite wants it. Anyone who wants anything other than to maximize quick profits for them is to be shut out of the system, and people get rewarded well for substituting spin for truth and toadying for political debate. As in the last Crisis it will take either an apocalyptic war or another Great Depression to force change in the ways that our quasi-aristocracy operates, if not overthrown them. The Great Depression that began with a three-year economic meltdown so constricted profits for elites that it made what survived of Big Business concern itself with survival than with buying the political process. This time the elites got the meltdown similar in severity and destructiveness ended after a year and a half -- and with their recovery they had the funds for imposing the economic fascism that we now endure. 

The right-wing authoritarians represent a shift of Big Business and bureaucratic elites from being a creative elite that solves problems to a dominant elite (terminology from Arnold Toynbee) that takes everything that it can and imposes poverty (which includes debt) upon everyone else. The terms of survival for the common man are to be heavily in debt and to work as hard and for as many hours as possible (second jobs) on behalf of a Master Class that gets aristocratic power and excludes any competition. As that happens the elite does everything possible to pit the proletariat against the intelligentsia while profiteering and entrenching power. Consider this: our democratic institutions were designed for a society largely of small-scale entrepreneurs and yeoman farmers incapable of getting more than they produce or create. One can see the change in a mere forty years as small business has given way to oligopoly as a norm, and bureaucratic elites become hereditary (that is the nature of bureaucracy -- the trend existed with the Soviet nomenklatura which became the exploiter class and became oligarchs as the society abandoned all pretense of socialism. See also China). 

We have yet to solve our problems. Those who profit most from the nastiness of our system have been getting richer, and sybaritic indulgence is about as hard to shake as is heroin.   

Quote:I remain an optimist.  In some ways I see it as a required cleansing.  We have the ability to fix our situation in a matter of a decade, and we will, after much pain and suffering including the disappearance of entire nations, mass dislocations, famine and war.  It will require much pain and suffering, but we'll get it together.

The same economic meltdown that gave FDR America foisted the Antichrist upon Germany. So beware! We have Donald Trump, who has pitted the proletariat against the intelligentsia with the promise of making people not in the elite miserable while telling the elites to follow the dictum of Aleister Crowley: Do what thou wilt. Just think of what Jeffrey Epstein got away with for several decades. Donald Trump was one of Jeffrey Epstein's good friends, noticing that "he likes his women young". But  "Do what thou wilt" implies that others are prey.

We solve global warming now -- or at least slow it enough for people to adjust to slow change that we cannot fully stop until we are at a different equilibrium -- or this Crisis Era offers the dubious solution of entrenching power in questionable elites and the calamities that kill perhaps a quarter of the world's population (if you thought World War II horrible, then wait until you see what happens when much of the world becomes uninhabitable or inundated -- and death comes on the scale of the Black Death or the Mongol invasions, which were even more horrific) in the Crisis of 2100, and because elites of our time became unaccountable. 

Those with the assets and power have often operated under the delusion that they can demand anything of others so long as such does not kill too many of the others, and that they have no responsibility toward Humanity as a whole or any ethical code. Such people bring famines, persecutions, and catastrophic war.  Donald Trump is exactly the person to bring such about -- except that he is too old to do so. A younger, more dynamic, more coherent -- and much less scrupulous person -- could bring such about. Mussolini was 39, and Hitler was 43, when they acceded to power.  Trump is the supposedly-safer Boomer, and who said that Obama is a characteristic X?  A mature Reactive (like Washington, Cleveland, Eisenhower, or arguably Obama) well fits an age that has tired of rancorous crusades and is more concerned with the workable than with the ideal.  The callow and cynical Reactive like Hitler or Mussolini gambles with everything because he can. To get through this Crisis we will need to seek something workable and sustainable -- or we will have such imposed upon us.

Quote:I look at S&H's work and recognize that, it speaks about a people, in a nation in a time gone by.  The "givens" of their world view are soon to change.  The very idea of nation state is becoming a blurry concept.  Unrest, and fracture are the standard now, as opposed to the exception.  I still find S&H a valuable tool, but I find myself wondering if they even considered an acceleration in the climate crisis of this magnitude.  I doubt it.

S&H offer patterns that have worked in the past. Maybe nationhood doesn't mean so much anymore -- unless the nation be some monstrous Evil Empire. People can cross borders easily in the Schengen Zone as if they were crossing state lines in the United States. Thus a German can easily visit places that used to be German only to realize that the people there have well adapted to German architecture and street plans but speak a language that has not been a favorite for language-learners. (Speaking of which -- Polish is a language worthy of learning. Difficult -- but no harder than Russian). 

We Americans need to do the following in this Crisis Era lest we impose calamity upon ourselves and upon our progeny. 

1. Restore full democracy
2. Undo the concentration of political power
3. Separate economic and political power
4. Reduce the regional divides of economic results so that people can live well in West Virginia or Mississippi.
5. Revitalize the economy for the proletariat
6. Restore respect for intellectual achievement and artistic creativity
7. Make gross ignorance a cause of shame instead of pride. 

It may be America's 'model minorities' who show the way. The alternative could be a monstrous order that works people to exhaustion, drains them with exorbitant costs, and numbs people with the worst 'opiate of the masses' available -- culture-free entertainment. I can imagine how depraved a thoroughly-rotten order could go... something like the entertainment in Roman circuses in which Christians were offered to half-starved bears and Big Cats. We would be more sophisticated; we might instead offer the pariahs to sharks or crocodiles in expensive aquaria with superb technology of transmission of reality TV at its conceivable worst.  If you think that we could never go so low, then guards in Nazi death camps occasionally entertained themselves by having large predators attack helpless inmates of those camps. People from the land of Goethe and Brahms turned dogs against helpless people, including against the definitive model minority of the time.

The Germans would have been better off had they been paying attention to Goethe and Brahms instead of to the 20th-century Antichrist, don't you think?  

...Personal and public life have normally shown that really-bad habits, like greed, addiction, and superstition, merit the efforts to free people from them. We solve our problems or our problems take us over. It's up to all of us to live in ways that justify optimism.

[Eric the Green]

The list of reforms is good, brower. They are all integral to dealing with global warming. I have listed them as:

Repeal gerrymandering and reduce the filibuster.

Repeal Citizens United, pass public campaign financing, require licensed media to provide free time and space for candidates, limit contributions from all sources, restrict lobbying.

End the 2 party duoploy and voting for lesser of two evils with ranked-choice voting and proportional representation

Raise taxes on the wealthy, and return social security savings to social security to save SS, reduce the debt and equalize the economy among classes.

Raise minimum wages and provide basic income security for all. End trickle-down economics and the deceptive slogans of freedom as "less government." Require corporations to contribute to society in their charter. Invest prudently in aid for housing to bring down prices and in other new industries that benefit society.

Medicare for All. Lower prescription drug prices. Invest in disease control again.

Repeal the current censorship of dirty words on broadcast stations alone.

End voter suppression schemes. Repeal the electoral college.

Require civics to be taught in all licensed schools, public and private.

Consider carbon taxes. Regulate auto emissions so that gasoline is phased out in 10 years. Regulate coal emissions and provide for transition to renewables. Invest in subsidies if necessary to further encourage the transition. Reform farming practices and restore family farms by restricting the size of corporate farms.

I like your #6, and I see some chance for artistic revival in the 2020s-- unusual for a 4T. Watch the year 2022.

If necessary, consider packing the supreme court if it blocks reforms. Consider dividing the country between red and blue states. Consider ending the presidency as we know it and its war-making power and switch to a parliamentary system like all other countries have instead of our elected-king system.


Astrological indications and historical cycles, as well as the saeculum, spiral and planetary dynamics, and other cycles confirm a progressive era is ahead. These indicators include but are not limited to:

The 30-year cycle noted by Arthur Schlesinger is returning, which is the 30-year Saturn zodiac cycle of Saturn in Aquarius, Pisces and Aries. The 60-year period is even more significant, since both Jupiter and Saturn are in these signs following their conjunction. The last time this conjunction happened close to this position (25 Capricorn), JFK said "let us begin!" Jupiter-Saturn cycles confirm the 2020s will fit the pattern of the 1960s, 1900s, 1840s and 1780s, and the minor reform periods of the 1990s, 1930s and 1870s.

Jupiter and Saturn join in progressive Aquarius in Dec.21 at the winter solstice, the first such conjunction in 600 years, shifting all these conjunctions and trines into air signs for the next 200 years. Uranus-Neptune is making the same switch, for a longer period. Air signs represent mind and communication, confirming we are switching into the information age instead of the industrial age (earth signs of money and materialism). The conj. of 1981 was like a preview of the switch to the information age, since it happened in air sign Libra, but it switched back to earth sign Taurus in 2000.

Pluto Returns to its position when the USA was founded for the first time, in 2022, and then moves into reform sign Aquarius in 2024 for about 20 years.

Uranus returns to its indication of the exact crisis climax in 2027, and into the sign Gemini as in the US horoscope in 2025. Jupiter joins Uranus in earth sign Taurus in 2024, a frequent conjunction of reform, representing the Green New Deal since Taurus is the sign of Earth Day. This is the first time that this 84-year Uranus Return of the 4T era ( = the modern saeculum, one typical human life cycle) will coincide with the 30/60-year Saturn Cycle Reform era.

Uranus, Neptune and Pluto form a very rare triple sextile 60/120-degree angle, very exactly. These are the planets of creativity, enlightenment and progress, and the symbols of the modern age of knowledge of the invisible since c. 1781. These 3 planets aligned in a tight conjunction in c.577 BC for the only time in history as the Axis Age of Enlightenment began.

Neptune enters activist Aries in 2025-26, lifting the current muddle of Pisces, beginning a new 164-year cycle through the zodiac. This last happened on the day the civil war began. On the day Neptune enters Aries to stay, 5 planets align in Aquarius overhead at DC.

The horoscope of humanity is indicated by Neptune's conjunction with Pluto, opening a new 493-year cycle of civilization in 1892. Using progressions (1 day after April 26 1892 = 1 year after 1892), we see that Mars in progressive Aquarius was highlighted in the sixties and turned retrograde in 1962-1963 during JFK's admin and his assassination. In retrograde, Mars has put progress on hold since the sixties. In 2022 it turns stationary at 7 Aquarius and the retrograde period is over. Progress returns. The chart for Neptune's ingress into Aries on Jan 26. 2026 shows the Sun in 7 Aquarius, conjunct Mars-Pluto near there and conjunct Mercury and Venus near there at the midheaven in DC, and Uranus is rising. That indicates the start of a new age of Aquarius, and progress returning.

The next Uranus-Neptune conjunction will also happen at 7 Aquarius in 2165. This is the beckoning light of the city on the hill for us. This conjunction is 2140 years since Christ, the period of one age in the precession cycle, and thus indicates the Aquarian Age.

[pbrower2a]

Any surprise? If you thought January 2020 unusually mild (the January weather seemed more typical of Kentucky than like that of anywhere in Michigan here in south-central Michigan)... unreliable snow cover in the coldest month is typical of the polar fringe of a Cfa climate than in a Dfa climate -- you got the typical perception of January 2020. 

 

Quote:WASHINGTON (AP) — Last month was the hottest January since scientists began keeping temperature records in 1880, U.S. government forecasters said Thursday.


The global average land and ocean surface temperature in January was 2.05 degrees Fahrenheit (1.14 degrees Celsius) above the average January temperatures for the 20th century, because of the changing climate, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
In parts of Russia, Scandinavia and eastern Canada, temperatures exceeded the old averages by 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 C).

Warmer temperatures mean melting snow and ice. The extent of Arctic sea ice was 5.3% below the average from 1981-2010, and Antarctic sea ice was 9.8% below the average.

https://apnews.com/bcba86be0c35b42bc65d2205db1aa6e2

(Image and caption deleted out of respect for the obvious copyright of the AP).

[pbrower2a]

Little things can be indicators.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — A warm winter means that, for apparently the first time in the history of German winemaking, the country’s fabled vineyards will produce no ice wine — a pricey, golden nectar made from grapes that have been left to freeze on the vine.

The German Wine Institute said Sunday that none of the country’s wine regions saw the necessary low temperature of minus 7 degrees Celsius, or 19 degrees Fahrenheit.

A succession of warm winters have cut into ice wine production recently, the institute said, noting that in 2017 only seven producers managed to make it, and only five managed it in 2013.

“If warm winters become more frequent over the coming years, ice wines from Germany’s regions will soon become an even more expensive rarity than they already are,” said wine institute spokesman Ernst Buescher.

Buescher said the institute knew of no vintage year in this century or last when no ice wine was made, and since winters were colder in the 19th century, it assumed that the latest harvest was the first one to create no ice wine since production began in 1830.

Freezing the grapes before they are crushed concentrates the sugar and leads to an intensely sweet, golden wine often served with dessert. It has always been an niche product with around 0.1% of German production, and expensive due to low volumes.

Making it is a tricky business that can enhance the winemaker’s reputation. Workers must race into the vineyards to bring the grapes in with only a few hours notice when the temperature falls, often at night or in the early morning. Since the grapes must be pressed while still frozen, makers labor in unheated facilities. Vineyard owners also face the risk that grapes set aside for ice wine will rot on the vine before the hard freeze comes.

Canada’s Niagara Peninsula is one of several other places where ice wine is produced, thanks to its cold winters. It’s also made in northern Michigan and Ashtabula County, Ohio, near Lake Erie.

Major markets for German ice wine include Japan and China as well as Scandinavia and the U.S., the institute said.

___

Follow AP’s full coverage of climate change issues at https://apnews.com/Climate

https://apnews.com/a531cffe32563c08fe1b0879b44a9d8c

Comment: Maybe the Eisswein will have to be made in a place with chillier winters. What is Polish for "ice wine"?

[pbrower2a]

Part of the local culture -- ice fishing -- was impossible in southern Michigan in this non-winter.

Huffington Post:

ST. CLAIR SHORES, Mich. ― It’s pitch black at 6 a.m on the shortest day of the year. In the far end of the parking lot behind the St. Clair Shores Library, just north of Detroit, a small group of ice anglers congregates. They are the dedicated and the few, all champing at the bit to get a jump on what is already a late start to the season.

Under a still-rising half-moon, about 20 or so men in full-body coveralls, parkas and hats with huge earflaps trot home-fashioned rigs of equipment on wagons out into the marina docks; ice drills, scoops, spring-loaded tip-ups (akin to a bobber), 5-gallon buckets sloshing with live bait. Their breath forms white clouds in the frigid predawn air.

Fishing on Lake St. Clair is out of the question ― it isn’t frozen. But a brief cold snap over the past few days has finally produced a rime of ice in the canals leading into the lake ― enough to drill a hole and cast a line through, but not enough to stand on safely. This morning’s experienced diehards drill their holes and cast their lines from the docks. Later in the day, the temperature rises to the high 40s, where it stays until the new year.

For most of 72-year-old ice fisherman Tim Sacka’s life, the ice season began in late December and lasted well into March. These days, he says, it’s far less predictable.

“Back 30 years ago… the ice lasted in the canals until April 1,” he said. “And it seems like it’s getting later and later for the ice to form.” Last year, he says, the ice formed early but lasted only a few weeks.

The 2019-20 ice season here was “a disaster,” says bait shop owner Veronica Pinto. Pinto has owned and operated Lakeside Fishing bait shop in St. Clair Shores for 43 years. It’s been one disappointment after another, she says, as temperatures hovered well above freezing all season. Bait and tackle sales are way down. The Lake St. Clair Cold as Ice winter ice fishing festival and tournament was canceled. The previous year it was delayed a month due to the unpredictable ice.

“It’s been a terrible time to be trying to sell fishing tackle. Nothing is predictable,” she says. “We don’t have the seasons anymore like we used to.”

Pinto doesn’t think the lakeside economy here in St. Clair Shores can absorb another bad ice year.

Many anglers who might otherwise have fished on Lake St. Clair this winter are heading farther north in Michigan or to Canada’s Lake Simcoe in search of ice, Pinto says. That means lost revenue for bars, restaurants and hotels, an entire industry that relies on people who come each winter from near and far to drill holes in the frozen lake and sit in ice shanties.

Two percent of Michigan’s gross domestic product is dependent on tourism for outdoor recreation, with snow activities bringing in $73 million each year.

“We’re following three bad winters already,” Pinto says. “Our economy is based on having a season in the winter where you sell a product, and it just hasn’t happened.”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ice-fishi...022ab3158f

[Eric the Green]

[pbrower2a]

In case you thought that November was unusually warm... it isn't because you lived in a uniquely-freakishly-warm place.

According to the latest monthly climate summary from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, average temperature across the contiguous United States in November 2020 was 46.4 degrees Fahrenheit—nearly 5 degrees warmer than the twentieth-century average. It was the 4th-warmest November on record for the country, wrapping up the 11th-warmest fall and 4th-warmest January-November period on record.




(top) Temperatures across the United States in November 2020 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Virtually the entire Lower 48 was warmer than average (red). (bottom) November temperatures each year from 1895-2020 compared to the twentieth-century average. Years that were warmer than average are red, and years that were cooler than average are blue. The long-term warming trend is shown with a dark red line. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data from NCEI. 
Much of the contiguous U.S. experienced a drier-than-average November, and the national average was in the driest third of the historical record. Precipitation was below average across the southern tier of the country from California to Georgia, as well as in the Rockies, the Northern Plains, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast. The November dryness allowed the percent of the country experiencing some level of drought to creep up 3 percent: as of the start of December, 48 percent of the country was in drought.




November 2020 precipitation as a percent of the 1981-2020 average. Much of the U.S. was drier than average (browns), with a few areas wetter than average (green). NOAA Climate.gov image from Data Snapshots, based on data from NCEI. 
For more details about November and fall climate in the United States—including highlights of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season—see the November 2020 monthly climate summary from NCEI.


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/november-2020-was-warmer-average-across-most-us

I took a Sunday drive into east-central Indiana in the middle of last month and experienced an 80 F temperature. Yes, that is freakish. That must be a record for the middle of November, as the average high in Muncie (the nearest city to where I went) is 51 F in November. .

[pbrower2a]

---

Just a reminder: much of America is back to severe drought. 




It looks like big trouble in the Winter Wheat zone.