The Coronavirus

[Eric the Green]

(06-03-2020, 02:39 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-03-2020, 09:27 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN has reported that The US should have a "couple hundred million" doses of a Covid-19 vaccine by start of 2021, Fauci says

This is quicker than you often hear from other sources, but it seems appropriate to watch the trials and see if you can give it any credibility.

Several companies have elected to mass produce, or prepare to mass produce, unproven vaccines to get ahead of the curve.  Will they be profit driven or humanitarian driven efforts? I'm assuming a little of both.  In any case, let's validate the vaccines first.  Remember: thalidomide.

I'm sure Fauci is aware of that

[Eric the Green]

The United States of Conspiracy: Covering Coronavirus. Frontline podcast describes how conspiracy theory has taken over politics and the White House, and why. Quite accurate analysis.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/podca...conspiracy

The conspiracy theories about coronavirus bring the conspiracy theory pandemic to a head. Believing them now is deadly, because the necessary precautions are viewed as plots to take away our freedom, though media fear-mongering, a bioweapons plan, a vaccination plot, or the result of an accident by doctors. The whole history of conspiracy theories and how they arose is now focused on the set of theories about the virus.

Conspiracy theory arose from several factors. One, big events took place that really WERE the result of conspiracies, and were revealed to be such after being first dismissed as theories, like Watergate, the WMD not being in Iraq, Iran-Contra, etc. Second, big events that changed the world that we could not believe were caused by one outlaw or a small group or terrorists, like the JFK assassination, 9-11, and so on. Third, the rise of propagandists and entertainers who took advantage of these events to "connect the dots" for people and create an audience for theories that have become steadily more outrageous, and which have now taken over the White House. Fourth, the knowledge industry, including journalism, science and universities, becoming more distrusted and thought of as elitist expertise.

Now, everything that goes on is attributed to some secret, long-standing elite trying to take away our freedom and our guns and is furthering globalism and creating a totalitarian new world order. The trouble is, no-one knows who these secret elites are, and those who are blamed like George Soros and Bill Gates cannot be tried or jailed for their alleged crimes because there are no facts to back up the accusations against them. They are simply convenient characters in the story.

So what can the believers do about the new world order? Just not vote? Cry for a revolution? Not get themselves or their children vaccinated? Buy Alex Jones' supplements so you can arm your body for the debacle? Build a self-sufficient fort and go into hiding? Fill up council chambers and call for investigations based on no evidence?

[Eric the Green]

In my ongoing debate with Warren, I note today that the USA today surpassed Spain in cases of coronavirus SARS-2 covid19 per million. It still has a ways to go to catch up in deaths per million. But it's safer to claim now that the USA is what it seems from the number of total cases: the epicenter of the virus. We see declines in daily new cases and deaths in Spain and other EU nations, because they have competent leaders, where as the USA, Brazil and the UK DO NOT. It is a simple case of the people being deceived into choosing a selfish, fanatical, rightwing neo-liberal Reaganoid/Trumpclone as their leader. The USA is an exceptional nation: exceptionally backward. The choice for 2020 in the USA is clear. It's time after 40 years to go forward again, and to dump Reagan and Trump at all levels of government.

Those countries that acted quickly to shutdown and shelter in place and used testing and quarantines were able to stop the virus and are now able to re-open. These countries are both socialist, democratic and in-between: New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, China, South Korea, Thailand. The Pacific Rim seems to have it together, while America north and south does not. What Trump fondly hopes for, he is doing exactly the opposite of what is needed to achieve, because he is stupid and only cares about his own position. The people of the USA, the UK and Brazil should consider these facts when they vote the next time. It does help to have competent national leaders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

States that reopened too early, like Florida, Texas and Georgia, have more daily new cases than those who didn't. Southern California is also having more new cases because it reopened too soon. The blue northern states that took action, after having the most cases and deaths earlier, are now seeing fewer daily new cases and deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-10-2020, 06:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: States that reopened too early, like Florida, Texas and Georgia, have more daily new cases than those who didn't. Southern California is also having more new cases because it reopened too soon. The blue northern states that took action, after having the most cases and deaths earlier, are now seeing fewer daily new cases and deaths.

I suspect that the northeast had eyes too much on China and missed it coming in from Europe.  As a result of that and their population density, they got hit hard.  This made a large impression of their population, and made them execute the isolation precautions that much more effectively than the rest of the country.

But they did not isolate as well as they might.  There are still people in the northeast who go through the motions of isolation.  And much of the rest of the country has lower rates of infection due in part to such a low population density.  Their people are even less likely to take the precautions seriously.  Their governments are more apt to open up while their infection rates are going up.

I suspect they will eventually learn the lessons of the northeast, but there are enough people who are not taking the virus seriously to impede the ability to reopen.

[Eric the Green]

(06-10-2020, 07:02 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-10-2020, 06:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: States that reopened too early, like Florida, Texas and Georgia, have more daily new cases than those who didn't. Southern California is also having more new cases because it reopened too soon. The blue northern states that took action, after having the most cases and deaths earlier, are now seeing fewer daily new cases and deaths.

I suspect that the northeast had eyes too much on China and missed it coming in from Europe.  As a result of that and their population density, they got hit hard.  This made a large impression of their population, and made them execute the isolation precautions that much more effectively than the rest of the country.

But they did not isolate as well as they might.  There are still people in the northeast who go through the motions of isolation.  And much of the rest of the country has lower rates of infection due in part to such a low population density.  Their people are even less likely to take the precautions seriously.  Their governments are more apt to open up while their infection rates are going up.

I suspect they will eventually learn the lessons of the northeast, but there are enough people who are not taking the virus seriously to impede the ability to reopen.

They will experience the results of their inaction, these southern red states, but I suspect they will continue to reopen and stay open anyway. Only with new national leadership will they and thus the nation be able to curb this pandemic in the USA.

Dr. Jha, director of Harvard University's Global Health Institute, comments on this situation on the PBS Newshour:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/what-t...is-surging

[David Horn]

Eric the Green’' Wrote: They will experience the results of their inaction, these southern red states, but I suspect they will continue to reopen and stay open anyway. Only with new national leadership will they and thus the nation be able to curb this pandemic in the USA.

One of the mysteries that makes it hard to argue any definitive point on prevention is the inconsistency in how the virus triggers infections. After the massive party at the Lake of the Ozarks, no outbreaks occurred. More troubling: at least one infectious person attended. Loyal Trumpists argue that is proof of their view of things. It will take a lot to overcome that.

[Warren Dew]

(06-10-2020, 06:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: In my ongoing debate with Warren, I note today that the USA today surpassed Spain in cases of coronavirus SARS-2 covid19 per million. It still has a ways to go to catch up in deaths per million. But it's safer to claim now that the USA is what it seems from the number of total cases: the epicenter of the virus. We see declines in daily new cases and deaths in Spain and other EU nations, because they have competent leaders, where as the USA, Brazil and the UK DO NOT.

You're ignoring the fact that US cases and deaths continue to decline as well.  Total cases and deaths are still higher in the Eurozone than the US, despite lower population.  Likely the only reason why Spain has fewer cases per million is that their testing has fallen behind their epidemic, unlike in the US.  You still can't argue that the epicenter has moved to the US.

Now, it is possible that the BLM protests will yet drive the US to the top, especially since they will facilitate transmission in a racial group that is demographically especially vulnerable to Covid-19 due to housing patterns.  That will be yet another example of Democrat policies that attempt to drive their black vote by hurting blacks.

Quote:States that reopened too early, like Florida, Texas and Georgia, have more daily new cases than those who didn't.

Massachusetts is one of the slowest states to reopen, and it still continues to have more deaths per day than Texas, and far more per million population.

Now, it is true that Covid-19 seems to be declining, slowly, in Massachusetts, while it's accelerating in large southern states like California, Texas, and Florida - but not Georgia.  Whether the acceleration is because of reopening, or whether it's because of other factors such as more willingness among illegals to get tested, or just plain increased testing, is unclear.  Texas in particular has an anomalously low case fatality rate, which suggests that it is doing extremely well on testing.

[Eric the Green]

(06-11-2020, 01:05 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(06-10-2020, 06:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: In my ongoing debate with Warren, I note today that the USA today surpassed Spain in cases of coronavirus SARS-2 covid19 per million. It still has a ways to go to catch up in deaths per million. But it's safer to claim now that the USA is what it seems from the number of total cases: the epicenter of the virus. We see declines in daily new cases and deaths in Spain and other EU nations, because they have competent leaders, where as the USA, Brazil and the UK DO NOT.

You're ignoring the fact that US cases and deaths continue to decline as well.  Total cases and deaths are still higher in the Eurozone than the US, despite lower population.  Likely the only reason why Spain has fewer cases per million is that their testing has fallen behind their epidemic, unlike in the US.  You still can't argue that the epicenter has moved to the US.

Now, it is possible that the BLM protests will yet drive the US to the top, especially since they will facilitate transmission in a racial group that is demographically especially vulnerable to Covid-19 due to housing patterns.  That will be yet another example of Democrat policies that attempt to drive their black vote by hurting blacks.

Quote:States that reopened too early, like Florida, Texas and Georgia, have more daily new cases than those who didn't.

Massachusetts is one of the slowest states to reopen, and it still continues to have more deaths per day than Texas, and far more per million population.

Now, it is true that Covid-19 seems to be declining, slowly, in Massachusetts, while it's accelerating in large southern states like California, Texas, and Florida - but not Georgia.  Whether the acceleration is because of reopening, or whether it's because of other factors such as more willingness among illegals to get tested, or just plain increased testing, is unclear.  Texas in particular has an anomalously low case fatality rate, which suggests that it is doing extremely well on testing.

I suspect you are still using wikipedia instead of the up to date info at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Total cases are much higher in the poorly-led USA by far than in any EU country. The epicenter is the USA. Spain has fewer cases permillion than the USA now. They have far more testing per million than the backward USA. Their daily new cases and deaths are far lower than the poorly-led nations, the USA, UK and Brazil. Spain reported no new deaths yesterday.

The black lives matter movement is not a "Democrat policy." Where do you get such a silly idea?

Massachussets has fewer new cases daily than FL, GA, TX. Yes, that includes Georgia.

According to worldometer, the states with the most new cases yesterday were:
California 2897
Texas 2437
Arizona 1556
Florida 1371
North Carolina 1167
Georgia 731
New York 673
Illinois 625
Alabama 567

Texas is below average in tests per M population.

Please do not reply without going to the site above, not wikipedia.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-11-2020, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The black lives matter movement is not a "Democrat policy." Where do you get such a silly idea?

I would say it was the people that are driving it, but the Democrats are somewhat faster to jump on the bandwagon than Republicans, and far faster than the administration.  They had at least considered reform before the recent racist murder and were able to put the ideas on what it should look like together quickly.  

I have long considered the Republicans the party pandering to racists.  They have a bit of a balancing act right now, trying to ride the mood of the country while not loosing the racist part of the vote.  Congressional Republicans seem to be leaning towards the mood of the country.  Trump seems to be leaning toward police violence and law and order.  Net trend is towards reform, but not enough has been done yet.

It will be interesting to see of Mitch McDonald tries his usual delaying tactics in the Senate, or if Trump thinks about vetoing reform. I would be inclined to doubt it with the mood of the country as it is and both facing elections, but those two have been tone deaf before.

[pbrower2a]

I don't know if it is peculiar to my town or to the region, but when I went to Wal*Mart I noticed that of the people not wearing masks, almost all had tattoos. Tattoos aren't cheap, but to get the most use out of them (in short value for the money) one needs to survive long enough. Once buried or cremated, the owner of the tattoo can no longer display his prize possession of 'skin art'. Unlike an antique, a car, or a more conventional canvas one can't bequeath it to an heir. (OK, people with White Power slogans or imagery -- I once saw the obscenity S--- H--- across someone's knuckles... well, I won't mess that).

If they truly cherish their tattoos they would be wise to take the normal precautions that most of us take... as in hand-washing frequently, social distancing, and of course wearing masks.

[Warren Dew]

(06-11-2020, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Total cases are much higher in the ... USA by far than in any EU country.

That's because total population is much higher in the US than in any one EU country.  You're not stupid enough to think your sentence meant anything, so it sounds like you're just going into denial since the facts are against you.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-11-2020, 03:53 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Total cases are much higher in the ... USA by far than in any EU country.

That's because total population is much higher in the US than in any one EU country.  You're not stupid enough to think your sentence meant anything, so it sounds like you're just going into denial since the facts are against you.

Or not. I think these are the apples and apples comparison numbers.

Cases per Million Population.

USA 6,301
UK 4,292
Spain 6,198
Italy 3,905
Germany 2,229
France 2,383
Belgium 5,153
Sweeden 4,783

[Warren Dew]

Eric said "total cases", "much higher", and "any EU country"; your numbers aren't relevant to any of those claims. Unlike Eric, though, I don't think you're not stupid enough to realize your post is irrelevant to the discussion.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-11-2020, 08:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Eric said "total cases", "much higher", and "any EU country"; your numbers aren't relevant to any of those claims.  Unlike Eric, though, I don't think you're not stupid enough to realize your post is irrelevant to the discussion.

It depends on whether you care about how effective the various plans are, or if you just care about making partisan points.  The US blew the chance to defend the borders looking at China and letting the virus getting hold in dense states via Europe and by lack of a national approach.  We definitely made mistakes, and it shows no matter if you look at absolute numbers or per million averages or however you arrange the statistics.

I care less about assigning the blame for mistakes already made than for the ones we are currently making.  We can revisit the first few months later when this is all past.  For now, the states relaxing isolation with their rate of infection still going up and their hospitals nearly at capacity are inviting catastrophe, and the federal response seems to be to walk away.  Ignoring the science and the problem may work in the short term against global warming, but the bug has a shorter incubation time.

[Classic-Xer]

(06-11-2020, 02:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The black lives matter movement is not a "Democrat policy." Where do you get such a silly idea?

I would say it was the people that are driving it, but the Democrats are somewhat faster to jump on the bandwagon than Republicans, and far faster than the administration.  They had at least considered reform before the recent racist murder and were able to put the ideas on what it should look like together quickly.  

I have long considered the Republicans the party pandering to racists.  They have a bit of a balancing act right now, trying to ride the mood of the country while not loosing the racist part of the vote.  Congressional Republicans seem to be leaning towards the mood of the country.  Trump seems to be leaning toward police violence and law and order.  Net trend is towards reform, but not enough has been done yet.

It will be interesting to see of Mitch McDonald tries his usual delaying tactics in the Senate, or if Trump thinks about vetoing reform. I would be inclined to doubt it with the mood of the country as it is and both facing elections, but those two have been tone deaf before.

I know that you've made the mistake of associating me and others with racism as your racists and ignorant racist believers continue to show us obvious signs of racism and support for racism and promotion of racism. You may as well be clan because you and others aren't all that much different than them these days.

[Eric the Green]

(06-11-2020, 10:04 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 02:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The black lives matter movement is not a "Democrat policy." Where do you get such a silly idea?

I would say it was the people that are driving it, but the Democrats are somewhat faster to jump on the bandwagon than Republicans, and far faster than the administration.  They had at least considered reform before the recent racist murder and were able to put the ideas on what it should look like together quickly.  

I have long considered the Republicans the party pandering to racists.  They have a bit of a balancing act right now, trying to ride the mood of the country while not loosing the racist part of the vote.  Congressional Republicans seem to be leaning towards the mood of the country.  Trump seems to be leaning toward police violence and law and order.  Net trend is towards reform, but not enough has been done yet.

It will be interesting to see of Mitch McDonald tries his usual delaying tactics in the Senate, or if Trump thinks about vetoing reform. I would be inclined to doubt it with the mood of the country as it is and both facing elections, but those two have been tone deaf before.

I know that you've made the mistake of associating me and others with racism as your racists and ignorant racist believers continue to   show us obvious signs of racism and support for racism and promotion of racism. You may as well be clan because you and others aren't all that much different than them these days.

You do seem to take after your dear leader, attributing your own faults to the ones who point them out to you.

[Eric the Green]

(06-11-2020, 03:53 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 02:24 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Total cases are much higher in the ... USA by far than in any EU country.

That's because total population is much higher in the US than in any one EU country.  You're not stupid enough to think your sentence meant anything, so it sounds like you're just going into denial since the facts are against you.

Total cases in the USA now per million are now higher than in any EU country. Them's just the facts now. But if you don't read the site that has the facts, then you won't know them. Can you take account of what another poster points out? Use the up to date site, please.

Brazil truly has the world's worst leader, aside from dudes like Assad or bin Salman in the Muddle East. #1 now in new cases, with abysmally-low levels of testing. Bolsonaro is the one who said he wouldn't catch the virus because he is athletic, and so should others be. No need for any concern or new policies, he says.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-11-2020, 10:04 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I know that you've made the mistake of associating me and others with racism as your racists and ignorant racist believers continue to   show us obvious signs of racism and support for racism and promotion of racism. You may as well be clan because you and others aren't all that much different than them these days.

You have not been obviously racist in your posting, but this does not mean the Republican Party doesn't welcome the racist votes.  LBJ went all progressive, allied with MLK, and went after the black vote with his civil rights legislation and war on poverty.  The Republicans did the obvious.  I don't think the Republicans will try to stop a very popular movement towards equality taking place in the crisis heart.  I suspect they would fail miserably if they tried.  As a blue guy, I almost want them to try.  It seems most have recognized the proverbial handwriting on the wall and are laying low.

I am of the mind that the conservative rural stay-the-same faction has the advantage for three plus turnings, but this is more than made up for by progressive action during and resulting from the crisis heart.  Well, the last awakening might have been transformational, and that was the only awakening seen in the Information Age, possibly representative, but that is a discussion for another day.  Anyway, the crisis heart is finally here.  Conservatives will have to learn to hang onto their hats for a while.

[Eric the Green]

(06-11-2020, 10:50 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-11-2020, 10:04 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I know that you've made the mistake of associating me and others with racism as your racists and ignorant racist believers continue to   show us obvious signs of racism and support for racism and promotion of racism. You may as well be clan because you and others aren't all that much different than them these days.

You have not been obviously racist in your posting, but this does not mean the Republican Party doesn't welcome the racist votes.  LBJ went all progressive, allied with MLK, and went after the black vote with his civil rights legislation and war on poverty.  The Republicans did the obvious.  I don't think the Republicans will try to stop a very popular movement towards equality taking place in the crisis heart.  I suspect they would fail miserably if they tried.  As a blue guy, I almost want them to try.  It seems most have recognized the proverbial handwriting on the wall and are laying low.

I am of the mind that the conservative rural stay-the-same faction has the advantage for three plus turnings, but this is more than made up for by progressive action during and resulting from the crisis heart.  Well, the last awakening might have been transformational, and that was the only awakening seen in the Information Age, possibly representative, but that is a discussion for another day.  Anyway, the crisis heart is finally here.  Conservatives will have to learn to hang onto their hats for a while.

Arguably, all Awakenings also move progressive action forward, unlike 1 and 3Ts, but the conservative faction still has equal power overall, whereas in 4Ts there comes a time when the conservative opposition is defeated more fully by progressive action.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-11-2020, 11:30 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Arguably, all Awakenings also move progressive action forward, unlike 1 and 3Ts, but the conservative faction still has equal power overall, whereas in 4Ts there comes a time when the conservative opposition is defeated more fully by progressive action.

I agree that this pattern of progressive dominance in the even turnings of the Information Age holds for the US. I am less sure it is universal in all cultures. In the US we have the slave compromises giving the conservatives a natural ability to block progressive change. Thus, say, in Europe you have more progressive governments in the European version of socialism. The US sees progress thwarted in most times, thus the cycles become partisan.