Ukraine is definitely in a 1T

[Eric the Green]

(04-23-2022, 09:20 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: How this 4T will play out, I am less sure of than I was when I published my horoscope book in 2019, or my previous book in 1997. I thought that the new millennial generation and the cosmic progressive indicators would reverse the trend of not supporting a Democratic president in the midterms once elected. I expected 2022 would be a Democratic year. The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear. But it's clear they have forgotten what Obama told them in Sept 2018 in that great University of Illinois speech, and what the Parkland kids like David Hogg told them too.

This is the crucial decision that will decide our 4T. We are in a polarized cold civil war turning, and one side must win. If the young people have deserted the ship, it will sink. The progressive side must win in this 4T for the saeculum to continue and our republic and our world to survive. A 4T is existential, always. We take action and change our country, or we die. The generational combination of a 4T must come through, as it always has before. We can't wait for others to do something, now or later. We need to act ourselves. We need to step up and do our part. Just as Obama said.

The Millennials and GenZ are totally disheartened.  They trust no one because no one has proven trustworthy.  There is also the problem of expectations and, let's face it, the WOW factor.  Biden is boring and not decisive.  Trump would just bull his way forward and got rewarded for it.  Biden negotiates, dithers and the younger crowd rolls its collective eyes.

If Biden does not get the support of Millennials (including the Pew Gen Zers), that it totally on THEM. To hell with the WOW factor. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella. You don't need a messiah. All we need are decent, hard working people, who are accountable, and who have America's best interests at heart. And they'll step up, and they'll join our government and they'll make things better, IF they have support!

Biden's Boredom is no excuse for young people not to support him. And he is trustworthy, even though he has had bad timing, perhaps, and perhaps has not done everything he could have done; but he has done the right things, and offered real solutions. But the voters did not give him a congress. So therefore to punish him and say, sort of like Jesus said, he who hath not, from him will be taken away even that which he hath. If the voters complain, roll their eyes, put their head in the sand, lose themselves in ironic detachment, and don't vote Democratic, etc., that is their own fault, and we will all pay for it.

I admit, I am damn mad at the voters and non-voters of America. Everything wrong in America today is 100% entirely due to them, without exception.

Quote:

Eric Wrote:Can we get to the other side by just sort of muddling through, without the big changes that usually characterize 4Ts? Can coach-potato generations accomplish enough just to get by? Will the market forces be enough to carry us into a 1T and put us on track of steady progress? Maybe, I don't know. But that seems to be what the people want.

THAT is what they want if they are not willing to support the Democrats and give Biden a congress, just because they aren't sufficiently progressive or young and attractive enough or whatever the millennials and other liberals have decided that Biden or other Democrats are not. Or will our current generations be able to reverse themselves in 2024 by re-electing Biden and giving him a congress, and will that be in time to make one last progressive push in the last 4 years of the 4T? The recent pattern where the Republicans gerrymander and take over congress for two or three terms must be broken somewhere.

Sorry to say it, but we got a calm quiet Silent when we needed a firebreather.  That's not fixable.  If Biden runs in 2024, we'll be seeing the GOP running the show or going through this same routine  of do-little again.  Neither option is good.

I don't know if Biden will win re-election, but I don't see any Democrat with the needed candidate skills willing to step up to replace him. And no-one did in 2020. And there are very few of them who could even beat Trump in 2024. But Biden is not a Silent; he's a cusper, and he has fire. He speaks well; just not as well as Obama, Bill Clinton, or some Republicans (maybe even W. Bush). I don't blame Biden because the voters did not give him a congress. Again you forget, no leader no matter how fiery or charismatic or able to connect can accomplish anything without a congress, and such a leader cannot be expected to change the mind of anyone in congress. That just does not happen anymore, if it ever did.

Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat. Failure to communicate....

[pbrower2a]

This Crisis is not yet decided for America. We seem more 3T on the whole than 1T.

Crisis eras do not reliably have happy endings. We have been lucky so far in America. We got our independence, we abolished slavery, and we defeated the two enemies that the United states absolutely, positively had to destroy lest they destroyed all that is precious in America. Crisis Eras can bring genocides and tyranny. Crisis eras can put an end to a shaky democracy. Ours this time?

[David Horn]

(04-23-2022, 01:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If Biden does not get the support of Millennials (including the Pew Gen Zers), that it totally on THEM. To hell with the WOW factor. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella. You don't need a messiah. All we need are decent, hard working people, who are accountable, and who have America's best interests at heart. And they'll step up, and they'll join our government and they'll make things better, IF they have support!

Biden's Boredom is no excuse for young people not to support him. And he is trustworthy, even though he has had bad timing, perhaps, and perhaps has not done everything he could have done; but he has done the right things, and offered real solutions. But the voters did not give him a congress. So therefore to punish him and say, sort of like Jesus said, he who hath not, from him will be taken away even that which he hath. If the voters complain, roll their eyes, put their head in the sand, lose themselves in ironic detachment, and don't vote Democratic, etc., that is their own fault, and we will all pay for it.

I admit, I am damn mad at the voters and non-voters of America. Everything wrong in America today is 100% entirely due to them, without exception.

Leaders are responsible for providing leadership, not their followers. We're wonky people, but most people, and especially young people, couldn't care less. They aren't threatened enough to self-motivate, and they aren't enamored to follow a messiah either (they tried Obama and he proved to be less than they expected). So yes, it's their responsibility to be the solution, but they just aren't engaged. That requires a spark from a true leader. James Clyburn made sure that we didn't pick someone "scary" in 2020, so we got Biden, not Bernie or Elizabeth. We're paying for that now

Eric Wrote:I don't know if Biden will win re-election, but I don't see any Democrat with the needed candidate skills willing to step up to replace him. And no-one did in 2020. And there are very few of them who could even beat Trump in 2024. But Biden is not a Silent; he's a cusper, and he has fire. He speaks well; just not as well as Obama, Bill Clinton, or some Republicans (maybe even W. Bush). I don't blame Biden because the voters did not give him a congress. Again you forget, no leader no matter how fiery or charismatic or able to connect can accomplish anything without a congress, and such a leader cannot be expected to change the mind of anyone in congress. That just does not happen anymore, if it ever did.

Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat. Failure to communicate....

Sorry to say, Biden is a nice guy, but he's not charismatic in the least. And yes, he is a Silent in every way it counts. If this year goes well, it will in spite of him, not because of him. I'm starting to see young people running for office who have the fire. That may be enough. Let's hope so.

[nguyenivy]

(04-24-2022, 08:21 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-23-2022, 01:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If Biden does not get the support of Millennials (including the Pew Gen Zers), that it totally on THEM. To hell with the WOW factor. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella. You don't need a messiah. All we need are decent, hard working people, who are accountable, and who have America's best interests at heart. And they'll step up, and they'll join our government and they'll make things better, IF they have support!

Biden's Boredom is no excuse for young people not to support him. And he is trustworthy, even though he has had bad timing, perhaps, and perhaps has not done everything he could have done; but he has done the right things, and offered real solutions. But the voters did not give him a congress. So therefore to punish him and say, sort of like Jesus said, he who hath not, from him will be taken away even that which he hath. If the voters complain, roll their eyes, put their head in the sand, lose themselves in ironic detachment, and don't vote Democratic, etc., that is their own fault, and we will all pay for it.

I admit, I am damn mad at the voters and non-voters of America. Everything wrong in America today is 100% entirely due to them, without exception.

Leaders are responsible for providing leadership, not their followers.  We're wonky people, but most people, and especially young people, couldn't care less.  They aren't threatened enough to self-motivate, and they aren't enamored to follow a messiah either (they tried Obama and he proved to be less than they expected).  So yes, it's their responsibility to be the solution, but they just aren't engaged.  That requires a spark from a true leader.  James Clyburn made sure that we didn't pick someone "scary" in 2020, so we got Biden, not Bernie or Elizabeth.  We're paying for that now

Eric Wrote:I don't know if Biden will win re-election, but I don't see any Democrat with the needed candidate skills willing to step up to replace him. And no-one did in 2020. And there are very few of them who could even beat Trump in 2024. But Biden is not a Silent; he's a cusper, and he has fire. He speaks well; just not as well as Obama, Bill Clinton, or some Republicans (maybe even W. Bush). I don't blame Biden because the voters did not give him a congress. Again you forget, no leader no matter how fiery or charismatic or able to connect can accomplish anything without a congress, and such a leader cannot be expected to change the mind of anyone in congress. That just does not happen anymore, if it ever did.

Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat. Failure to communicate....

Sorry to say, Biden is a nice guy, but he's not charismatic in the least.  And yes, he is a Silent in every way it counts.  If this year goes well, it will in spite of him, not because of him.  I'm starting to see young people running for office who have the fire.  That may be enough.  Let's hope so.

Maybe we still have a shot for 2026/2028. It's not unthinkable given how fast things moved both globally when COVID-19 got going (March 2020) and in Europe when Russia invaded Ukraine (February 2022). Populations can unify fast in urgency even after years of no activity. The question is what will be our trigger this time? Maybe the problem is the US views COVID more like climate change in that the view is everyone worldwide needs to take part in quelling the threat? If this is a 2nd Civil War 4T then no wonder why we're putting global issues on the backburner given we have domestic institutions that need repair.

[Eric the Green]

(04-24-2022, 08:21 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-23-2022, 01:06 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If Biden does not get the support of Millennials (including the Pew Gen Zers), that it totally on THEM. To hell with the WOW factor. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella. You don't need a messiah. All we need are decent, hard working people, who are accountable, and who have America's best interests at heart. And they'll step up, and they'll join our government and they'll make things better, IF they have support!

Biden's Boredom is no excuse for young people not to support him. And he is trustworthy, even though he has had bad timing, perhaps, and perhaps has not done everything he could have done; but he has done the right things, and offered real solutions. But the voters did not give him a congress. So therefore to punish him and say, sort of like Jesus said, he who hath not, from him will be taken away even that which he hath. If the voters complain, roll their eyes, put their head in the sand, lose themselves in ironic detachment, and don't vote Democratic, etc., that is their own fault, and we will all pay for it.

I admit, I am damn mad at the voters and non-voters of America. Everything wrong in America today is 100% entirely due to them, without exception.

Leaders are responsible for providing leadership, not their followers.  We're wonky people, but most people, and especially young people, couldn't care less.  They aren't threatened enough to self-motivate, and they aren't enamored to follow a messiah either (they tried Obama and he proved to be less than they expected).  So yes, it's their responsibility to be the solution, but they just aren't engaged.  That requires a spark from a true leader.  James Clyburn made sure that we didn't pick someone "scary" in 2020, so we got Biden, not Bernie or Elizabeth.  We're paying for that now

Eric Wrote:I don't know if Biden will win re-election, but I don't see any Democrat with the needed candidate skills willing to step up to replace him. And no-one did in 2020. And there are very few of them who could even beat Trump in 2024. But Biden is not a Silent; he's a cusper, and he has fire. He speaks well; just not as well as Obama, Bill Clinton, or some Republicans (maybe even W. Bush). I don't blame Biden because the voters did not give him a congress. Again you forget, no leader no matter how fiery or charismatic or able to connect can accomplish anything without a congress, and such a leader cannot be expected to change the mind of anyone in congress. That just does not happen anymore, if it ever did.

Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat. Failure to communicate....

Sorry to say, Biden is a nice guy, but he's not charismatic in the least.  And yes, he is a Silent in every way it counts.  If this year goes well, it will in spite of him, not because of him.  I'm starting to see young people running for office who have the fire.  That may be enough.  Let's hope so.

The objective horoscope system is a better indicator than just your opinion, whatever the limitations of astrology might be. So are actual results. Biden beat Trump, and Trump is a cult leader. That means he has some charisma, and Biden had more. He connects well with people. His proposals in the BBBBB are not Silent-like; they are bold. He was influenced by Bernie Sanders. If it has been watered down and stalled, that's because the voters did not give him a congress. Rinse, and repeat: no congress, no accomplishment-- regardless of the charisma and fire of the president.

Again, actual history and the cosmic indicators are more reliable than just your own impression. JFK, Carter, Bill Clinton, Obama, Biden; all have had scores higher than their opponents. They all have had charisma to varying degrees. They all won the presidency. But they all could accomplish nothing, or very little, because they did not have a supportive congress. Only after JFK was killed, and during the peak of the Awakening period in a revolutionary left era (as indicated by the planets, the sixties) could LBJ get elected and get a congress and thereby go for the gold.

John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George McGovern, Hubert Humphrey, Adlai Stevenson, all had lower scores than their opponents. Michael Dukakis (score 2-12) and Adlai Stevenson (the original "egghead", 5-19) had the lowest scores, and the least charisma. They all had less charisma than their opponents and they lost. Richard Nixon had virtually a tie score with JFK. People may forget that Nixon was a very-talented speaker.

"they aren't enamored to follow a messiah either..., but they just aren't engaged. That requires a spark from a true leader."

You are contradicting yourself. You DO say they need a messiah. Obama, their messiah, said they don't.

If more young people had voted for Bernie or Elizabeth in the Democratic primaries, giving one of them the nomination, then the Democrats would have lost the 2020 election. They are not even as good as Biden in the charisma department. I have already pointed that out. Elizabeth? Seriously??

Here SHE is!!!

[Eric the Green]

Young voters "who are not engaged" need to see this video.

https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=3277

[David Horn]

(04-24-2022, 05:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Young voters "who are not engaged" need to see this video.

https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=3277

I fully agree, but the real issue is, will they?  In fact, it's worse, because they don't even know that such arguments exist and, even worse still, that it matters in any way to them personally.  I wish it was otherwise.

[Eric the Green]

(04-25-2022, 09:15 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-24-2022, 05:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Young voters "who are not engaged" need to see this video.

https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=3277

I fully agree, but the real issue is, will they?  In fact, it's worse, because they don't even know that such arguments exist and, even worse still, that it matters in any way to them personally.  I wish it was otherwise.

The Millennials, it appears, do need to be aroused to get engaged. They will have to arouse themselves, though. Obama alone can't do it, nor can Biden. I'm not so sure that lack of engagement was true of the "Greatest" Generation GIs. Maybe. But once aroused, millennials have the cohesion and collegiality to get things done together, just as the GIs did. Involvement in politics has been denigrated, and I don't think this was entirely generational, but perhaps a consequence of prevalent free-market ideologies which are stronger today even than the similar ideology prevalent in the 1920s. But arousal can still happen. It may be harder, as during the pre-civil war era, to arouse people to look to change their own society, rather than meet an external enemy, and to have the courage and critical-thinking capacity to act to change it.

This capacity has been weakened by this prevalent neoliberal ideology of free-market uber alles, because civics education has been stripped away and democracy has been weakened by this ideology. Perhaps fatally-- or perhaps the consequences will be increasing so rapidly, as they are now, that people of all our current generations, empowered by the millennial generation's youth and cohesion, will say that they are mad as hell and won't take it anymore, and finally realize that this ideology will not be effective to create a better society, and they will now be willing to support a government as well as movements that change society.

The Millennial Generation has the unique role of reconstructing the approach to life and society the lack of which they themselves are the victims, which has resulted in their cynicism and lack of engagement, but which they are called to restore by the demands of the times. Each generation is called to restore the qualities lacking in the society in which they grew up. Now is the time for the Millennials to realize this. I thought 2022 would be the year, but perhaps the ingrown tendency established that midterms remove support from the president, this may have to wait until 2024. The more Millennials put off realizing their destiny though, the harder it will be to act it out.

[JasonBlack]

(04-07-2022, 08:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Could be. I don't have direct access to Mount Olympus or Mount Meru to verify.

Now that I think about it, Hesiodic myth has many good examples of masculine oppression and feminine treachery in the same story. Patriarchal Ouranos meets his end at the hands of Chronos who castrated him at the behest of his mother, Gaia. Chronos later grows up to be a patriarchal figure, only to have his wife Rhea and son Zeus turn against him and bring about the age of the Olympians.

That's kind of how I view feminism: older women conspiring against their fathers and male colleagues by convincing youth boys to turn against them.

[galaxy]

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear.

Dissatisfied from the left.

This can be seen in polls for the 2022 midterm elections. In every case, without exception, when a state is polled for a Senate or Governor election, the Democratic candidate far outperforms Biden's approval in the state.

This is distinctly different from 2018, where in most cases the Republican candidates polled very close to Trump's approval in any given state, and from 2010, where the Democratic candidates were consistently close to Obama's approval.


What has changed is polarization. Disapproving of a Democratic president no longer makes people vote Republican as it did in 2010. Now, it makes them vote Democratic but be unhappy about it. The Democrats, if they want to do well in this election, need to realize that their most important task is not convincing people to prefer them over Republicans - that part is already done. What isn't done is convincing them to actually vote. The midterms will be won or lost by turnout.

[Eric the Green]

(07-12-2022, 09:14 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear.

Dissatisfied from the left.

This can be seen in polls for the 2022 midterm elections. In every case, without exception, when a state is polled for a Senate or Governor election, the Democratic candidate far outperforms Biden's approval in the state.

This is distinctly different from 2018, where in most cases the Republican candidates polled very close to Trump's approval in any given state, and from 2010, where the Democratic candidates were consistently close to Obama's approval.


What has changed is polarization. Disapproving of a Democratic president no longer makes people vote Republican as it did in 2010. Now, it makes them vote Democratic but be unhappy about it. The Democrats, if they want to do well in this election, need to realize that their most important task is not convincing people to prefer them over Republicans - that part is already done. What isn't done is convincing them to actually vote. The midterms will be won or lost by turnout.

Yes indeed. Both appear to be needed though. The polls for the congressional midterms are still stuck at a slight Republican lead. A number of Senate races are too close to call. Democrats need to take PA and WI back, despite a WI supreme court determined to keep the state Republican through voting restrictions. Still, those look winnable. And they need to hold NV, GA, AZ and NH in which the Senate races are tied and may show a 1 or 2 point Republican lead. NC and FL are outside chances for a Democratic pick-up.

[David Horn]

(07-12-2022, 10:37 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 09:14 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear.

Dissatisfied from the left.

This can be seen in polls for the 2022 midterm elections. In every case, without exception, when a state is polled for a Senate or Governor election, the Democratic candidate far outperforms Biden's approval in the state.

This is distinctly different from 2018, where in most cases the Republican candidates polled very close to Trump's approval in any given state, and from 2010, where the Democratic candidates were consistently close to Obama's approval.

What has changed is polarization. Disapproving of a Democratic president no longer makes people vote Republican as it did in 2010. Now, it makes them vote Democratic but be unhappy about it. The Democrats, if they want to do well in this election, need to realize that their most important task is not convincing people to prefer them over Republicans - that part is already done. What isn't done is convincing them to actually vote. The midterms will be won or lost by turnout.

Yes indeed. Both appear to be needed though. The polls for the congressional midterms are still stuck at a slight Republican lead. A number of Senate races are too close to call. Democrats need to take PA and WI back, despite a WI supreme court determined to keep the state Republican through voting restrictions. Still, those look winnable. And they need to hold NV, GA, AZ and NH in which the Senate races are tied and may show a 1 or 2 point Republican lead. NC and FL are outside chances for a Democratic pick-up.

The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually geting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

[Eric the Green]

(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 10:37 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 09:14 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear.

Dissatisfied from the left.

This can be seen in polls for the 2022 midterm elections. In every case, without exception, when a state is polled for a Senate or Governor election, the Democratic candidate far outperforms Biden's approval in the state.

This is distinctly different from 2018, where in most cases the Republican candidates polled very close to Trump's approval in any given state, and from 2010, where the Democratic candidates were consistently close to Obama's approval.

What has changed is polarization. Disapproving of a Democratic president no longer makes people vote Republican as it did in 2010. Now, it makes them vote Democratic but be unhappy about it. The Democrats, if they want to do well in this election, need to realize that their most important task is not convincing people to prefer them over Republicans - that part is already done. What isn't done is convincing them to actually vote. The midterms will be won or lost by turnout.

Yes indeed. Both appear to be needed though. The polls for the congressional midterms are still stuck at a slight Republican lead. A number of Senate races are too close to call. Democrats need to take PA and WI back, despite a WI supreme court determined to keep the state Republican through voting restrictions. Still, those look winnable. And they need to hold NV, GA, AZ and NH in which the Senate races are tied and may show a 1 or 2 point Republican lead. NC and FL are outside chances for a Democratic pick-up.

The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

They listened to Obama in 2018. 
https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=3277

Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?

[David Horn]

(07-12-2022, 03:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

They listened to Obama in 2018.

Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?

With Obama, they went big and got nothing. They stayed with the Dems and got Trump and now Biden. He looks almost dead to them. I doubt they'll get engaged for him; someone a lot younger, maybe.

Let's admit it, they need to see real effort; progress would be better, but that's not possible is it? Abject fear may move them to act, but otherwise they'll sit this out. They're the Screwed Generation. The Zoomers are the Screwed Generation On Steroids. Other than fear, where is the motivation?

[Eric the Green]

(07-13-2022, 12:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 03:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

They listened to Obama in 2018.

Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?

With Obama, they went big and got nothing.  They stayed with the Dems and got Trump and now Biden.  He looks almost dead to them. I doubt they'll get engaged for him; someone a lot younger, maybe.

Let's admit it, they need to see real effort; progress would be better, but that's not possible is it?  Abject fear may move them to act, but otherwise they'll sit this out.  They're the Screwed Generation.  The Zoomers are the Screwed Generation On Steroids.  Other than fear, where is the motivation?

I would say, they got Obama, who got as much as could reasonably have been gotten in 7 months of power, but they wanted perfection and got angry with him and stayed home. And the Tea Party folks could not tolerate anyone else but themselves in power. That resulted in the right-wing taking over congress and gerrymandering the country ever since. They stayed home in 2014 too and thus gave the Senate to Republicans, where it has stayed to this day.

I don't know if they will get engaged. Only if the Republicans nominate Trump, DeSantis or some other loser will enough of them come out and likely vote Biden back in. If Tim Scott or Tom Cotton are nominated, the Republicans have the advantage.

Landrieu seems invisible, and McAuliffe has to overcome his new image as a loser. Gavin Newsom could run, but the Saturn indicator shows he might lose. It looks like the Dems are stuck with Biden as of now. No-one other than those 3 among the Democrats can be elected, as far as I can see.

[David Horn]

(07-13-2022, 05:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-13-2022, 12:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 03:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

They listened to Obama in 2018.

Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?

With Obama, they went big and got nothing.  They stayed with the Dems and got Trump and now Biden.  He looks almost dead to them. I doubt they'll get engaged for him; someone a lot younger, maybe.

Let's admit it, they need to see real effort; progress would be better, but that's not possible is it?  Abject fear may move them to act, but otherwise they'll sit this out.  They're the Screwed Generation.  The Zoomers are the Screwed Generation On Steroids.  Other than fear, where is the motivation?

I would say, they got Obama, who got as much as could reasonably have been gotten in 7 months of power, but they wanted perfection and got angry with him and stayed home. And the Tea Party folks could not tolerate anyone else but themselves in power. That resulted in the right-wing taking over congress and gerrymandering the country ever since. They stayed home in 2014 too and thus gave the Senate to Republicans, where it has stayed to this day.

I don't know if they will get engaged. Only if the Republicans nominate Trump, DeSantis or some other loser will enough of them come out and likely vote Biden back in. If Tim Scott or Tom Cotton are nominated, the Republicans have the advantage.

Landrieu seems invisible, and McAuliffe has to overcome his new image as a loser. Gavin Newsom could run, but the Saturn indicator shows he might lose. It looks like the Dems are stuck with Biden as of now. No-one other than those 3 among the Democrats can be elected, as far as I can see.

The young have never understood the nuances of governing, because civics was never a priority in their schools.  They do understand sclerosis though, and they see if fully on the Democratic side.  The Republicans, on the other hand, seem fully capable of reeking havoc. The young hae the GOP plicies, but see them as dynamic.  The Dems better get dynamic as well.

If the Dems plan to regain the upper hand, and that isn't just the White House, they'll need a leader that actually leads.  You mentined Gavin Newsome, who might be too Left Coast, but Gretchen Whitmer and J. B. Pritzker also come to mind.  I don't think Andy Beshear wants the job, but he's young and vibrant.  Phil Murphy and Kathy Hochul are too Northeast for this round, I think.  So I'm going with Gretchen.  She's smart and tough -- both attributes needed in 2024.

[Eric the Green]

(07-14-2022, 10:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-13-2022, 05:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-13-2022, 12:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 03:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

They listened to Obama in 2018.

Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?

With Obama, they went big and got nothing.  They stayed with the Dems and got Trump and now Biden.  He looks almost dead to them. I doubt they'll get engaged for him; someone a lot younger, maybe.

Let's admit it, they need to see real effort; progress would be better, but that's not possible is it?  Abject fear may move them to act, but otherwise they'll sit this out.  They're the Screwed Generation.  The Zoomers are the Screwed Generation On Steroids.  Other than fear, where is the motivation?

I would say, they got Obama, who got as much as could reasonably have been gotten in 7 months of power, but they wanted perfection and got angry with him and stayed home. And the Tea Party folks could not tolerate anyone else but themselves in power. That resulted in the right-wing taking over congress and gerrymandering the country ever since. They stayed home in 2014 too and thus gave the Senate to Republicans, where it has stayed to this day.

I don't know if they will get engaged. Only if the Republicans nominate Trump, DeSantis or some other loser will enough of them come out and likely vote Biden back in. If Tim Scott or Tom Cotton are nominated, the Republicans have the advantage.

Landrieu seems invisible, and McAuliffe has to overcome his new image as a loser. Gavin Newsom could run, but the Saturn indicator shows he might lose. It looks like the Dems are stuck with Biden as of now. No-one other than those 3 among the Democrats can be elected, as far as I can see.

The young have never understood the nuances of governing, because civics was never a priority in their schools.  They do understand sclerosis though, and they see if fully on the Democratic side.  The Republicans, on the other hand, seem fully capable of reeking havoc. The young hate the GOP plicies, but see them as dynamic.  The Dems better get dynamic as well.

If the Dems plan to regain the upper hand, and that isn't just the White House, they'll need a leader that actually leads.  You mentined Gavin Newsom, who might be too Left Coast, but Gretchen Whitmer and J. B. Pritzker also come to mind.  I don't think Andy Beshear wants the job, but he's young and vibrant.  Phil Murphy and Kathy Hochul are too Northeast for this round, I think.  So I'm going with Gretchen.  She's smart and tough -- both attributes needed in 2024.

Horoscope scores:
Gavin Newsom, 9-2, Saturn Return due
J B Pritzker 14-9
Gretchen Whitmer, 15-13, Saturn Return due in 2030, likely a one-termer at best
Andy Beshear, 6-10, sure loser
Phil Murphy, 7-5
Kathleen Hochul, 7-11, sure loser

Biden (16-6) will win over Trump (9-4), or DeSantis (12-10). I don't think any of the above can win except Newsom. Maybe Pritzker, but he faces headwinds. Democrats will likely lose if the Republicans pick Tim Scott (17-7), or maybe Tom Cotton. Marco Rubio (13-7) and Greg Abbott (12-7) are possibilities too. Democrats will win if Mitch Landrieu (19-2) runs, and probably if Terry McAuliffe (10-3) runs. If Gavin Newsom is nominated, it's a crap shoot because of his Saturn Return. McKinley (13-3) was the only one who won under this transit, but he was immediately assassinated. I don't see that happening to Newsom, but it's a danger signal of a loss.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

I see no reason to think a candidate's native region is a factor, unless being from the "Left Coast" is the reason Newsom loses due to his Saturn Return, and in spite of his high score.

[Eric the Green]

The Facts on ‘De-Nazifying’ Ukraine
By Robert Farley

Posted on March 31, 2022

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia’s talk of “de-Nazifying” Ukraine is a non-starter in peace negotiations.

“We won’t sit down at the table at all if all we talk about is some ‘de-militarization’ or some ‘de-Nazification,'” Zelensky said in an interview with independent Russian journalists on March 27. “For me, these are absolutely incomprehensible things.”

Two days earlier, in a speech from Poland, President Joe Biden dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russia invaded because it seeks “de-Nazification” of Ukraine. Putin has also talked about “neo-Nazis, who settled in Kyiv and took the entire Ukrainian people hostage.”

“Putin has the gall to say he’s ‘de-Nazifying’ Ukraine. It’s a lie,” Biden said. “It’s just cynical. He knows that. And it’s also obscene.”

Biden noted that Zelensky was democratically elected — getting 73% of the vote in 2019 — and he is Jewish.

Although historians say Putin’s assertions about the need to liberate Ukraine from the grip of neo-Nazis and genocide against ethnic Russians in Ukraine are false propaganda, the repeated assertions from Putin and other Russian officials had at least one American politician questioning aid to Ukraine.

“It’s shocking to me that Congress is so willing to funnel $14 billion in military equipment over and over again into Ukraine and you have to ask, is this money and is this United States military equipment falling into the hands of Nazis in Ukraine?” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said on March 22.

We’ll explain what these claims are all about and why experts say they are misleading.

A statement signed by more than 300 historians who study genocide, Nazism and World War II said Putin’s rhetoric about de-Nazifying fascists among Ukraine’s elected leadership is “propaganda.”

“We strongly reject the Russian government’s cynical abuse of the term genocide, the memory of World War II and the Holocaust, and the equation of the Ukrainian state with the Nazi regime to justify its unprovoked aggression,” the statement says. “This rhetoric is factually wrong, morally repugnant and deeply offensive to the memory of millions of victims of Nazism and those who courageously fought against it, including Russian and Ukrainian soldiers of the Red Army.

“We do not idealize the Ukrainian state and society. Like any other country, it has right-wing extremists and violent xenophobic groups. Ukraine also ought to better confront the darker chapters of its painful and complicated history. Yet none of this justifies the Russian aggression and the gross mischaracterization of Ukraine.”

One of the authors of the statement, Eugene Finkel, an associate professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, told us the influence of Ukraine’s neo-Nazi faction is relatively small.

“Neo-Nazi, far right and xenophobic groups do exist in Ukraine, like in pretty much any other country, including Russia,” Finkel said. “They are vocal and can be prone to violence but they are numerically small, marginal and their political influence at the state level is non-existent. That is not to say that Ukraine doesn’t have a far-right problem. It does. But I would consider the KKK in the US and skinheads and neo-Nazi groups in Russia a much bigger problem and threat than the Ukrainian far right.”

‘Political Periphery’
Since Ukraine regained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, far-right, ultra-nationalist political groups have struggled to make much headway in Ukrainian politics.

“During much of Ukraine’s post-Soviet history, the radical right has remained on the political periphery, wielding little influence over national politics,” Melanie Mierzejewski-Voznyak wrote for “The Oxford Handbook of the Radical Right,” which was published in 2018.

In the 30 years since Ukraine’s declaration of independence, Mierzejewski-Voznyak wrote, “its radical right’s national electoral support only rarely exceeded 3 percent of the popular vote. Radical right parties typically enjoyed just a few wins in single-mandate districts, and no far right candidate for president has ever secured more than 5 percent of the popular vote in an election.” The far right did, however, for the first time win a proportional share of the parliamentary government in 2012 when it won 10.4% of the popular vote. Since then, the far right’s share in parliamentary elections fell to 6% in 2014 and then to 2% in 2019.

“The claim that neo-Nazi or far-right groups hold any significant power in Ukraine is absurd,” Jared McBride, an adjunct history professor at UCLA whose work specializes in nationalist movements and mass violence and genocide in Russia and Ukraine, told us via email. “The most well-known far-right wing party, Svoboda (similar to say [Marine] Le Pen’s party or other corollaries in Europe) won 2.15 percent of the vote in 2019 election and holds one seat in the Rada – meaning they are politically irrelevant.” (Le Pen is the leader of the French far-right party the National Rally.)....

This and more at:
https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/the-fa...g-ukraine/

[pbrower2a]

(07-12-2022, 03:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 10:37 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 09:14 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear.

Dissatisfied from the left.

This can be seen in polls for the 2022 midterm elections. In every case, without exception, when a state is polled for a Senate or Governor election, the Democratic candidate far outperforms Biden's approval in the state.

This is distinctly different from 2018, where in most cases the Republican candidates polled very close to Trump's approval in any given state, and from 2010, where the Democratic candidates were consistently close to Obama's approval.

What has changed is polarization. Disapproving of a Democratic president no longer makes people vote Republican as it did in 2010. Now, it makes them vote Democratic but be unhappy about it. The Democrats, if they want to do well in this election, need to realize that their most important task is not convincing people to prefer them over Republicans - that part is already done. What isn't done is convincing them to actually vote. The midterms will be won or lost by turnout.

Yes indeed. Both appear to be needed though. The polls for the congressional midterms are still stuck at a slight Republican lead. A number of Senate races are too close to call. Democrats need to take PA and WI back, despite a WI supreme court determined to keep the state Republican through voting restrictions. Still, those look winnable. And they need to hold NV, GA, AZ and NH in which the Senate races are tied and may show a 1 or 2 point Republican lead. NC and FL are outside chances for a Democratic pick-up.

The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.

They listened to Obama in 2018. 
https://youtu.be/7hZgg_KjvDQ?t=3277

Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?

Something is different this midterm year: the former President stinks up the political process. Unlike other one-term  Presidents who from Taft to the elder Bush who have abandoned any hope of regaining the Presidency, this former President has yet to retire from the political contest. Perhaps had he not initiated the Great Ugliness of January 6, Republicans would be in a great position in which to wipe out Democratic majorities in the House and Senate and start transforming America into a "Christian and Corporate State" and make it stick. The elder bush didn't muck things up for Bob Dole; Ford didn't much things up for Reagan; Carter didn't much things up for... whatever; Hoover and Taft both got out of the way. On behalf of one's Party it is best that a one-term President not remind people who voted against him why they turned against him. Trump does that loud and strong. I have no desire to hear or smell a hippopotamus' fart. 

Trump's Three (Judicial) Stooges have so far done more to provoke dissent against policies of the Religious Right (I expect more clunkers overtly on the side of the Economic Right) than to create legal coherence.  Even if Trump no longer wields power, the winter of discontent that he has brought to America has outlasted his Presidency. 

I am tempted to believe that the low approval numbers for President Biden reflect how unhappy many Americans remain. The only options that the other Party offers are those of a pure plutocracy with a thick coating of insane (fundamentalist) and corrupt (Wealth Cult) religiosity.  Except for the MAGA cult, most of us are tired of Donald Trump and wish that he would just leave the scene once and for all. 

(A reference to his ex-wife who just passed away is unintended). Plenty of people will need to stifle the urge to say that God "took home" the wrong Trump, including some high-profile comedians and talk-show hosts. 

In any event how well a country does in a 4T is the rate at which it abandons 3T ways that got the polity into the mess and adopts 1T ways that porte3nd something more placid and viable.