2022 midterm polls

[Eric the Green]

538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:

Senate races
Georgia even (latest poll red Walker +4)
Nevada red Laxalt +1 (latest poll blue Cortez Masto +1)
Pennsylvania even (latest poll red Oz +2)
Ohio red Vance +4 (latest poll +6)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +1)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +3 (latest poll +5)
Wisconsin red Johnson +4 (latest poll +2)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +5)
Washington blue Murray +6 (latest poll +2)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +9)
Iowa red Grassley +7 (latest poll +11)

Generic House red +1
latest polls blue (latest polls blue +1, even, +2, +4, +7, +6, +1, even, red +1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[David Horn]

(11-05-2022, 01:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: 538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:

Senate races
Georgia even (latest poll red Walker +4)
Nevada red Laxalt +1 (latest poll blue Cortez Masto +1)
Pennsylvania even  (latest poll red Oz +2)
Ohio red Vance +4 (latest poll +6)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +1)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +3 (latest poll +5)
Wisconsin red Johnson +4 (latest poll +2)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +5)
Washington blue Murray +6 (latest poll +2)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +9)
Iowa red Grassley +7 (latest poll +11)

Generic House red +1
latest polls blue (latest polls blue +2, +4, +7, +6, +1, even, red +1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

This may be the first year I'm doing my best to ignore the polls.  Are they accurate?  Who knows?  The entire methodology requires randomness and blind sampling, and neither occurs these days.  Why?  Because large swaths of the electorate decided, on their own, to be unavailable for sampling and unwilling to be polled.  So guessing and plussing-up have rplaced the underlying math, and the results will show it.  It's been bad in past years, I suspect it will be mystifyingly bonkers this time.

[pbrower2a]

The Dark Money interests are most successful when they are by spreading doubt. I have another post on how the Dark Money does its stuff, and I am not bringing it here. In essence, the secretive Dark Money hires people to cast doubt on anyone who fails to believe in pure plutocracy or that those who own the assets have responsibility to the rest of humanity.

The Dark Money dream is of a world in which workers are helpless serfs who get only what the economic elites deem appropriate. Should those elites decide that people die because they are not adequate contributors to their wealth or foment dissent, then those people can die. That's basically Nazi Germany without the militarism and genocide. Nazi Germany, even without the military aggression and the systematic murders of millions, was a workers' Hell. Workers were serfs in all but name, unable to quite their jobs to work elsewhere, unable to organize unions (there was the German Labor Front, but it was basically one all-encompassing company union that fleeced workers for dues, exhorted workers to toil harder under harsher conditions for ever less, and arranged for occasional respites in which people might have gotten the opportunity to do calisthenics on a stage made to look like the Alps or a beach on the Black or North Sea. Workers got fleeced for such "vacations".

I can think of three words to describe how I would respond to such an order.

                             I HATE LIFE!

One is free under tyranny only if indifferent to his personal survival. Except to survive to outlast the vile order, what purpose could there be in an honest lifer? The Gods that the elites recognize and demand that the rest of us treat as such (themselves, as is so with all narcissists, sociopaths, and psychopaths!) are themselves frauds.   

May things never get that bad!  I'm old and broke. I have seen just about everything that I am likely to ever see.

[Eric the Green]

I still think the polls are relevant. Not fully accurate though.

538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:

Senate races
Georgia red Walker +1 (latest poll even)
Nevada red Laxalt +1.4 (latest poll +1)
Pennsylvania even (latest poll blue Fetterman +1)
Ohio red Vance +5 (latest poll +5)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +4)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +2 (latest poll +4)
Wisconsin red Johnson +3 (latest poll +1)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +6)
Washington blue Murray +5 (latest poll even)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +10)
Iowa red Grassley +10 (latest poll +12)

The reddish purple states that voted for Trump in 2020 are gone. The blueish purple states that voted for Biden can still be won.

Generic House red +1
latest polls red +1, blue +1, red +4, blue +5, blue +1, even)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[pbrower2a]

We can now ignore the polls for the reality that will matter. Although the counting is not over, it would seem that the bloodbath for Democrats did not happen in the House. Republicans saw a bunch of much touted opportunities evaporate, as was so for Democrats. That's how things go in a close election.

Here's my prediction: republicans will win the House majority (barely) but not win the Senate. Votes align closely with partisan affiliation, which suggests that little has truly changed.

[Eric the Green]

Following the election, of course. The House is still undecided, and Democrats need to flip a few seats in CA back to D to keep the House. Christy Smith is trailing, but Will Rollins is leading so far. Porter is barely ahead to hold for Ds. For the Senate, Fetterman has won PA, but Cortez-Masto is under-performing so far in Nevada's Clark County (Las Vegas), and has to do better than she has so far there to win. Kelly seems on the way to winning in AZ, and may well carry Hobbs with him over Lake for governor, and Barnes may well upset Johnson in WI if he gets what he needs from Milwaukee and Madison. Evers has won for governor there. GA seems headed for the runoff with Warnock holding a slight lead. The expected red wave did not come, but there still may be a slight flood. Any Republican victory anywhere could be a disaster though. McCarthy wants to hold the US debt celing hostage in order to make social security dependent on a congressional vote every 5 years, and privatize it with Wall Street investments.

[Eric the Green]

I still think the polls are relevant. Let's compare to results so far (subject to edit)

538 estimate, followed by results so far

Senate races

Georgia red Walker +1 (latest poll even) blue, Warnock leading by about .5%; runoff set. Politico reports a .9% Warnock lead.
Nevada red Laxalt +1.4 (latest poll +1) Laxalt +2.7; 2 larger red counties about 2/3 counted, about 1/6 of Clark County (Las Vegas) and half of Washoe (Reno) are outstanding. If trends continue I have calculated that Laxalt could win by about 37,000 votes. red Lombardo ahead for governor by 4 points. But these races have not been called, suggesting the Dems could come back.

Pennsylvania even (latest poll blue Fetterman +1) Fetterman winning by 3% and margin is likely to grow
Ohio red Vance +5 (latest poll +5) Vance winning by about 6%
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +4) Kelly leading by 4.6 points, almost 3/4 of the vote counted. It appears Democratic counties have more votes uncounted. Hobbs is leading Lake by 0.5%. The question is how Democratic those remaining counties will be. Small Pinal county has swung from blue to majorly red now.

New Hampshire blue Hassan +2 (latest poll +4) Hassan won by about 10%
Wisconsin red Johnson +3 (latest poll +1) Johnson 1%. Dane County and Milwaukee and Waukesha vote was already in, despite reports of more expected! I think this happened in 2020 too.

North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +6) Budd won by almost 4%
Washington blue Murray +5 (latest poll even) Murray won by about 14%
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +10) Rubio won by about 16 points
Iowa red Grassley +10 (latest poll +12) Grassley won easily by about 12%

Unless NV turns around, the status quo prevails. If Kelly wins then the Dems have 49, and if Warnock wins they would keep their 50 seat majority, which at least allows Biden to appoint judges, but little else.

Generic House red +1
latest polls red +1, blue +1, red +4, blue +5, blue +1, even)

Latest estimate is Republican 222, Democrats 213 but final results will not be clear for days

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09...e-00065905
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[David Horn]

There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual, because the actual vote margins were often so close. I suspect that the typical margin of error is actually a lot iarger than pollsters admit, because the underlying theorem used to determine MoE has been so totally violated that the polls are simply best-guesses.

[Eric the Green]

(11-09-2022, 12:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual, because the actual vote margins were often so close.  I suspect that the typical margin of error is actually a lot larger than pollsters admit, because the underlying theorem used to determine MoE has been so totally violated that the polls are simply best-guesses.

I think the polls worked pretty well for the close senate races, as shown in the table above. Those from stronger blue and red states were less accurate, as the voters reverted to their usual habits, and so the polls didn't make much different there, and Florida sunk deeper and deeper into their swamp. And the hurricanes that they vote for time after time continue to hit them, and they ignore the lesson, preferring to indulge their gaddamm stupid prejudices. We should give up on Florida, and I hope they sink into the sea. I would swear at them more but I'm tired a'swearin'.

The poll predicted the House would be +1 Republican, and some late polls favored Democrats or were even. Quite accurate I would say.

[pbrower2a]

We cannot fault polls for human stupidity, cowardice, cruelty, and cravenness. We need remember that white gentile Americans of contemporary America are little better in these aspects of life than German gentiles around 1930. One nasty economic downturn can disintegrate whatever veneer of decency underpins democracy. America's model minorities may be less hooked on these vices, and such may be all that has kept us from going fully into Trumpism or worse. The polls that fail to show the political results of such vileness are in the same league as the physician who conceals the reality of a terminal disease from a patient. American democracy remains on life support, and some people would be delighted in pulling the plug to hasten the receipt of their inheritances. 

Democracy is designed for generally-good and wise people and not for people. I don't like to attribute political beliefs to stupidity or amorality, but it should be clear by now that  Trumpism is incompatible to wisdom, kindness, caution. or conscience. Winston Groom may have forced the words "Stupid is as stupid does" into his character Forrest Gump, but those who do stupid, cruel, craven, things do "stupid" and they expose themselves to the effects of personal stupidity. Regrettably these people can impose misery upon those who had nothing to do with the decision, whether with drug addiction or with support for dictatorial politics. 
 
I recognize that Arkansas is toward the bottom in many social metrics. It elected as Governor "Comical Sally"... Sarah Huckabee Sanders, best known as President Trump's appointed liar as Press Secretary.     More shocking is that Wisconsin, which is toward the top with most such metrics (and in those metrics it far excels Michigan) seems to have re-elected Ron Johnson as one of its Senators. This man pushed the false electors, and should be a disgrace for such.

Know well that where corruption flourishes, there is always some powerful, evil interest who has a stake in that corruption. Senator Ron Johnson, whom I would accuse of being the reincarnation of the other disgraceful US Senator from Wisconsin the infamous Joseph R. McCarthy except that I do not believe in reincarnation. well serves those who believe the two core principles of plutocracy: that those who own the gold have the right to make the rules, and that no human suffering can ever be in excess on behalf of elite power, indulgence, and gain.

The Citizens United decision has all but gutted American democracy. It has given people with anti-democratic intent the right to lie without consequence. At the least a nominee who makes horrific, abominable statements can be called to account. PR firms in the services of shadowy interests can dispense lies with impunity because they do so too late for the liberal opponent to have a retort.

As said one man who knew what he was doing, a man whose truths were rare but whose ruthless manipulation created a reign of unrelieved fear, said,

Quote:What luck for rulers, that men do not think.

We should all know who.

[David Horn]

(11-09-2022, 04:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-09-2022, 12:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual, because the actual vote margins were often so close.  I suspect that the typical margin of error is actually a lot larger than pollsters admit, because the underlying theorem used to determine MoE has been so totally violated that the polls are simply best-guesses.

I think the polls worked pretty well for the close senate races, as shown in the table above. Those from stronger blue and red states were less accurate, as the voters reverted to their usual habits, and so the polls didn't make much different there, and Florida sunk deeper and deeper into their swamp. And the hurricanes that they vote for time after time continue to hit them, and they ignore the lesson, preferring to indulge their gaddamm stupid prejudices. We should give up on Florida, and I hope they sink into the sea. I would swear at them more but I'm tired a'swearin'.

The poll predicted the House would be +1 Republican, and some late polls favored Democrats or were even. Quite accurate I would say.

I suspect that a lot of the accuracy was due to the pollsters putting a thumb on the scale to move the results to more likely places.  A lot of the thumb work ware "adjustments to the model", which is statistics-talk for fixing the sampling probelm.  To be honest, there is no other option these days.  Adding wieghting or alternate sources to get enough samples is the norm now.

[gabrielle]

(11-09-2022, 12:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual...

Hello again.

Are they still surveying people by phone? Because most young people do not answer calls from unknown numbers. Could that perhaps have skewed the results to favor Republicans?

Also, are we seeing a voting revolution among youth? These late Millennials, Gen Zers or whatever, ditching the habit of the young to neglect the mid-terms? They supposedly came out in record numbers last election, too.

[Eric the Green]

(11-10-2022, 02:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-09-2022, 04:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-09-2022, 12:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual, because the actual vote margins were often so close.  I suspect that the typical margin of error is actually a lot larger than pollsters admit, because the underlying theorem used to determine MoE has been so totally violated that the polls are simply best-guesses.

I think the polls worked pretty well for the close senate races, as shown in the table above. Those from stronger blue and red states were less accurate, as the voters reverted to their usual habits, and so the polls didn't make much different there, and Florida sunk deeper and deeper into their swamp. And the hurricanes that they vote for time after time continue to hit them, and they ignore the lesson, preferring to indulge their gaddamm stupid prejudices. We should give up on Florida, and I hope they sink into the sea. I would swear at them more but I'm tired a'swearin'.

The poll predicted the House would be +1 Republican, and some late polls favored Democrats or were even. Quite accurate I would say.

I suspect that a lot of the accuracy was due to the pollsters putting a thumb on the scale to move the results to more likely places.  A lot of the thumb work ware "adjustments to the model", which is statistics-talk for fixing the sampling problem.  To be honest, there is no other option these days.  Adding wieghting or alternate sources to get enough samples is the norm now.

I think I vaguely remember this discussion before. The polls turned out to be pretty accurate this time, and I know fivethirtyeight does make "adjustments" and that they analyze their polls this way and in other ways so that their average is more accurate, but polls can never taken to be as accurate in forecasting an election as the actual election returns.

[Eric the Green]

(11-10-2022, 05:18 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(11-09-2022, 12:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual...

Hello again.

Are they still surveying people by phone? Because most young people do not answer calls from unknown numbers. Could that perhaps have skewed the results to favor Republicans?

Also, are we seeing a voting revolution among youth? These late Millennials, Gen Zers or whatever, ditching the habit of the young to neglect the mid-terms? They supposedly came out in record numbers last election, too.

Hello to you too.

Yes, thanks to the horror of Trump and the urgings of Obama and Parkland activists like David Hogg at huge gun control rallies and others at the women's marches against Trump, young people have been coming out more often in midterms since 2018. The Millennials (and their actual members extend to 2003 or 2004 birth cohorts) have begun to live up to their civic archetype in this way.

I am no expert myself on the methods of pollsters. Some pundits thought the polls skewed Democratic in 2020 because Republicans were boycotting polls. Perhaps these trends balance out.

[David Horn]

(11-10-2022, 05:18 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(11-09-2022, 12:03 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is no doubt that the polls were less effective than usual...

Hello again.

Are they still surveying people by phone? Because most young people do not answer calls from unknown numbers. Could that perhaps have skewed the results to favor Republicans?

Also, are we seeing a voting revolution among youth? These late Millennials, Gen Zers or whatever, ditching the habit of the young to neglect the mid-terms? They supposedly came out in record numbers last election, too.

Hello Gabrielle!  Long time between posts.

It's interesting that this has actually happened before: in the 19th century.  Apparently, we like to back a winner, but there is no winner right now.  That drives engagement up (need to back a winner. after all) and makes the politics acrid.  Eventually, one of the two contending ideas will take hold, and then it's a replay of FDR or the Gipper.

[Eric the Green]

In latest returns, Kelly is holding up at 6% in AZ, and Hobbs is holding on to a slight lead for governor over Lake

In Nevada, Cortez Masto, the Democrat is catching up to Trump-backed Laxalt. It depends on how many votes are really left, and how blue they really are. Right now Laxalt still looks like the winner by about 5000 votes.

UPDATE More results just came in, mostly from Clark County (Las Vegas), and Cortez-Masto is only behind Laxalt by about 800 votes now. The margin has been 9000 before.

Laxalt can expect about 300 more from Republican Douglas County and Carson City, south of Reno. Washoe County with Reno was trending slightly blue, but no more results came in from there in this update. 22,000 votes left to count here, is the estimate from the county. Perhaps they are from Reno itself which could favor Cortez. There may be more to come in from Las Vegas; the estimated vote yet to be counted now just says greater than 95%, which just means NY Times does not know. PBS tonight said 50,000 ballots were out, so based on my memory of how many were counted before, there could be as many as 15-20,000 ballots yet to count which considering her 7% lead there means Cortez might get about 1100-1200 more votes out of Las Vegas. So it seems the margin could end up razor thin.

The strict-conservative but ethical Republican candidate Sheriff Lombardo for NV governor seems still ahead and likely to win (UPDATE, Republican declared the winner), but it looks like the Democrat Adrian Fontes who is now leading narrowly will win the Secretary of State office to keep out a Trumpist election denier (UPDATE, Fontes declared the winner). Most other state offices are staying closely Democratic, and so is the legislature with 1 possible flip to Republican in both the Nevada state Senate and Assembly, by current very narrow margins.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/11/politics/...index.html

Current trend in US House are for Republicans to get 221 and Democrats 214. Some margins are narrow and about 4 or 5 could still change leads from R to D. Most uncalled races are in California. Comebacks for Democrats are not out of the question; one Maryland district's Democrat came back and won today.

We are watching several key close House races now. If these 4 come back from current Republican leads, and no others elsewhere slip into a Republican win, the Democrats could control the House by one vote.

A battle of farmers in the CA central valley gives the Republican an 84-vote lead. Moderate Democrat Adam Gray seems to be catching up to John Duarte. 61% reported.

Young rising star Will Rollins, who would have a great score were he in a position to run for president someday, had an early lead but is now 1.2 point behind the old Trumpist Republican Ken Calvert in this district east of LA, with only 58% reported.

In Oregon's Salem-area district, a more progressive Democrat primaried out the most moderate House Democrat, but is having trouble securing the win. There may be more Democratic areas still out here, judging by how much has been reported in various counties in the OR senate race. The new district added some voters from the Portland-area county. Right now the Republican has a 2% 6800 vote lead, with 84% of the NY Times estimated vote counted. Only 70% has been counted in Multnomah County (Portland area).

Boebert has not won her Colorado seat yet, but has a 1100 vote lead; ballots outstanding unknown.

Another close race is in AZ. Democract Kirsten Engle is 1 point behind with 83% reporting in a district that stretches east from part of Tuscon.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022...house.html

[Eric the Green]

A political winner
from NYTimes:

By the time the midterm election campaign reached its final days, some Democrats had spent weeks fretting that their nominees had consumed far too much time talking about abortion rights at the expense of economic issues — and, potentially, their seats.

Well, about that.

Support for abortion rights now appears to be one of the big reasons Democrats defied history and staved off deep midterm losses. In a new article, my colleague Elizabeth Dias and I explain how Democrats changed the politics of an issue that’s long been most galvanizing for their opponents.

Democratic campaigns invested more heavily in abortion rights than any other topic, riding a wave of anger after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. In total, Democrats and their allies spent nearly half a billion dollars on ads mentioning abortion — more than twice what they spent on crime, and eight times as much as Republicans spent on abortion, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm.
The impact

In Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico and elsewhere, abortion rights emerged as a driving force in the midterm elections, helping Democrats win ballot measures, governor’s races and House seats.

Voters in three states — California, Vermont and highly contested Michigan — protected abortion rights in their state constitutions. In Kentucky, the Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell’s home state, voters rejected an anti-abortion amendment.

In several states where the future of abortion rights rested on the outcomes of state legislative and governor’s races, voters said the issue was pivotal, according to exit polls conducted by TV networks and Edison Research. In Pennsylvania, abortion overtook the economy as the top issue on voters’ minds. Democrats there won a Senate race, critical to their hopes of maintaining a Senate majority, as well as the governor’s mansion, and they seemed poised to flip control of the State House of Representatives.

In Michigan, where nearly half of voters said abortion was their top issue, Democrats won both chambers of the Legislature and re-elected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, giving the party a trifecta of power for the first time in 40 years.

The bottom line

Republicans had sought an end to Roe for nearly 50 years, and the issue had long motivated their core supporters more than it had their opponents’. But in this election, the court victory turned out to be a political loser. (And, as The Upshot recently reported, it hasn’t made much of a dent in the number of abortions nationwide.)

The midterm results suggest that Democrats have upended the status quo on the issue — and that abortion rights could remain a source of motivation in the next election, when the possibility of a nationwide ban is on the ballot.

[pbrower2a]

This has been a clear disappointment of an election for the GOP. It had great optimism of exploiting the usual realities of a midterm election with a wave that could gut all effectiveness of President Biden and presage a smashing victory that might knock out the Democratic party as a national force until some national calamity that might even put the USA in risk of dissolution. Republicans could establish their Bircher dream of a "republic not a democracy" -- one in which economic power dictates all except perhaps (for a while) some localities.

Most Americans would come to the conclusion that life in America is nothing more than suffering for people of untrammeled power. We would live in the Orwellian future of a boot stamping on someone's face or a back full of welts from whippings -- and we would be obliged to praise the brutes in power for their generosity in inflicting the "corrective" pain. (I'd rather be six feet under if immigration were not a possibility).

We may have now just passed the most dangerous part of the Crisis of 2020. People are catching on in enough places to the shabbiness of the Hard Right offering. I expect to see more prosecutions of those involved in the Capitol Putsch and other crimes of Donald Quisling Trump. We are far from the time of milk and honey that a 1T not following a destructive apocalypse offers. We still have our work cut out for us. It may not be enough to convince 55% of the people.

President Biden is more effective than expected. Democrats are taking over many of the virtues that conservatism saw itself in the role of providers or guarantors. Of course that could push the Democrats into some new form of conservatism, but ideally one that has less emphasis on personal greed and more on sustainability. Conservative conduct is fine with me. Barack Obama makes a far better model for imitation by young people than does Donald Trump for almost any path in life except criminality (not that I endorse criminality. I would be satisfied with more effective suppression of crime of all kinds from sex offenses to spouse abuse to commercial fraud).

So we endorse LGBT rights at the expense of sexual abuse of children and marital violence. That is a good trade because homosexuality is not a choice. Child porn, sex with children, and marital violence are choices in the sense that armed robberies are choices.

I cannot speak for any large segment of the American populace on the political trend. It is best that we sicken of Trump's vile antics. Maybe some people are trying to find ways in which to avoid raising Trump-like children... almost in time for the next wave of Idealist children (Generation AA?) to be born. Yes, it is about time for that if the time has not already started.

I hope that we are sickening of political arrogance and that strange conjunction of the debasement of those who think on behalf of those who own. There used to be no conflict between ownership and thought except among pretentious Marxists who thought themselves intellectuals. In the 1950's the Party more consistently supportive of free enterprise got 80% of the college-educated vote and a majority of the vote from high-school graduates; even the latter was still above average in education in the time. Trump's plutocratic, superstition-mongering party does badly among people with college degrees. Except in the South, the Democratic Party was not sympathetic to blatant superstition and ignorance.

ignorance is not innocence in our complex time. It only creates personal pain these days and the potential for disgrace. It's up to us to decide that culture is more precious and satisfying than is mind-numbing entertainment. It is up to us to decide that the seduction of conspiracy theories is no more worthy of giving in than is the seduction of whores full of STD's. Our world is more complex than it used to be even if for most of us the complexity comes from the difficulty of making wise choices in our lives.

We need a tax system that favors small business over behemoths that in some crisis will prove too inflexible to adapt and too corrupt to save. We need to expand education so that people can make competent choices in life. I expect the workweek to shrink, and that what we do off the job will do more to define us than will our jobs. I can think of many things that we can do to fulfill ourselves, from gardening to writing. This said, the era of conspicuous consumption is over if we want to have a planet on which we can live.

...........................

Humanity tends to spend much of its effort in one Turning rejecting with great vehemence what it loathed in the previous Turning or two. I can see plenty to reject, including Q-Anon style conspiracy theories. .

[Eric the Green]

We Democrats are now 4 seats short in the House, and it looks like the Senate will continue to be deadlocked too just because 13,000 people in Wisconsin voted the wrong way.

What's this all about? Why must we be wedded to the past and ignore oncoming disaster?

The "inflation" issue is blamed on an unpopular president, so too many voters punish his Party and vote for the opposition, failing to notice that we no longer have an opposition Party.

That's not all they don't notice. They fail to notice that we NEED gasoline prices to be high. What else will spur competition from electric cars? If we don't switch to electric cars and clean energy, then inflation will be incurable because greenhouse gases and climate disasters will grow and grow, and that will cost us far more than an extra dollar at the pump. The people of Florida vote Republican over and over again, preferring to respond to their fears and prejudices instead of to the climate disaster that hits them with hurricanes in November and seasonal hurricanes of unprecedented frequency and severity.

And most people don't like crime, myself included. So the Reprobate Party, the non-viable opposition Party, uses it to create fear among the people by accusing the only viable Party we have of being soft on crime. And yet crime overall is still way below what it was 20 or 30 years ago, when for example the people in the Long Island suburbs voted by small margins for Democratic presidents, and now they elect former-cop thugs as their representatives in congress that have all the wrong values.

As George Carlin says, the majority of US Americans have not been educated to do critical thinking. They can't see anything beyond their immediate fears. So for example in New York (whose Republicans likely will control the House now), they react to accusations that the lack of cash bail is causing more crime, when the fact is that from the longer and deeper point of view it is cash bail that causes more crime. And these former-cop thugs also persuade fools to believe that owning and carrying a gun is the way to protect themselves and that somehow the 2nd Amendment is absolute and inviolate. What a bunch of unadulterated rot it is to value that amendment over human life, which is under severe threat from 10 times more gun violence and gun massacres in the USA than in most other countries. And what's worse, these former-cop thug congressmen think that we should "support law enforcement", which means the police must be allowed to kill innocent young black people like George Floyd without restraint and that DA's should lock up innocent people or impose penalties that don't fit the crimes they are accused of.

But it is people of color who are more likely to suffer this revolving door of crime caused by cash bail and lack of justice, so these Long Islanders and southerners and other red county people would rather respond to the race card and accuse the Black Lives Matter group of causing riots, and accuse Democrats of defunding the police when it's the Republicans who do that. And this means they also react to "the problem on the border." They cannot see that our own policies of wanting lower gas prices and the resulting climate crisis is destroying the climate and economy in Central and Latin America and Africa, along with the dictators and war lords the US has supported there. As George Monbiot says, there is simply nothing left for people in these places, so they seek to enter other countries.

And what's wrong with that? Why is my ancestry as a north-European-American any better than someone whose ancestry is indigenous American and/or Latin-European? Or black? Or some combo thereof? Why should I only be concerned about people whose ancestors many generations ago came from northern Europe and not from other places, and who believe in the right-wing Christian culture war? Why should I support treating these "others" who came from elsewhere like vermin and impose injury, hunger and death upon them just because they want to come to or live in the USA? Why shouldn't people be able to live in the countries they want? Why shouldn't we welcome them and treat them with respect? And why do these prejudiced US Americans forget the job shortage and supply chain issue that is causing inflation? Immigrants whether illegal or not make good workers and consumers, and they boost and not hurt our US economy and jobs! And Donald Trump was wrong; they are not bringing drugs, they are not bringing crime, and they are not rapists. And illegal immigration is a misdemeanor and not a capitol crime. And it is Republicans who cut off funding for the courts and lawyers necessary to process both legal and illegal immigrants, so it is THEIR mess. But just like those who idiotically fall for anti-vax/anti-health mandates and the Big Election Lie and climate crisis is a hoax and QAnon and 9-11 inside job and JFK conspiracy and chemtrails and all that conspiracy theory crap, those people who vote Republican simply are unable to think that far or see that far or feel that far. And it only takes a few of them voting Republican in key states to mess up our country and our whole future. It is truly pathetic and outrageous. And we can't blame the system, because decades of too many people voting Republican has kept the system as it is.

And Judy Woodruff now wants to take a sabbatical so she can report on the divisions in the US and how they can be "healed"? All she has to do is read this post of mine here. All she needs to do is realize that people believe the wrong ideology and the wrong misinformation and need to start voting correctly. It is not more complicated than that. There is nothing else behind it. So why go on a "search" for the obvious? Come on, Judy, stay at your anchor desk! Keep reporting the truth! That's all anyone can do.

[galaxy]

Two things are worth noting -

This is the first election in which the entire Millennial generation (1982-2002) has been able to vote

and

This election was not a "red wave" because young people turned out and voted D in huge numbers.

(As is usual, most of society cuts the Millennial generation short for some reason and ends it around 1997, which is why "Gen Z" is currently trending on Twitter.)

Every generation seems to have an election in which it appears to suddenly become among the most powerful political forces in the country. I think this might be that election for Millennials.

Someone on Twitter who does election math and statistics has claimed that voters under 30 voted in such high numbers and so disproportionately Democratic that they completely canceled out voters over 65. The first non-Boomer-dominated election in decades.