My Millennial Saeculum Theory

[Eric the Green]

(06-13-2021, 11:50 AM)RELFantastic Wrote:

(06-09-2021, 11:21 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

Well, turnings never change in an instant. The moment we use to define the start is just the moment when it went from being 51/49 to 49/51. The first signs of the coming 4T came after 9/11, but the country was very clearly in more of an Unraveling mood still. It wasn't definitively Crisis until late 2008. The first signs of the 3T came in the late 70s (around 76 onward maybe), even though it didn't fully begin until the "Morning in America." 1960 presidential campaign ads seem surprisingly "awaken-y," even though that turning didn't begin until several years later. And so on.

We've been seeing emerging 1T features since around 2017, which is part of why I believe we'll reach the start point by around 2025 or so.

2017 is definitely not 1T. The Trump era is safely 4T. Safe 4T is 2008-2021 (Great Recession to COVID-19 Pandemic), while the broad 4T is probably 2005-2024.

The "broad 4T" definitely extends to 2029. That is Mr. Howe's suggestion, which is certainly relevant.

[Eric the Green]

(06-13-2021, 11:15 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-12-2021, 12:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-12-2021, 11:26 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-12-2021, 11:20 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Phony Fourth thread was archived, and was started by Zarathustra back in 2003.  For some reason the name "Sean" comes to mind.  Whatever his actual name, he mentioned a guinea pig named Siren.

That would be Sean Love.  He's still active on the hidden Facebook group.

And in the new open facebook fourth-turning discussion group.

I can't see how Facebook works as a discussion forum though.  It's "post your opinion", then someone else does the same.  It's not threaded (unless you make a point of replying to someone specific).  Even then, not so much.

True, but discussions certainly happen on FB forums. I have belonged to a number of them. This forum has its good points, including the threads; but also many drawbacks. It is sparsely populated now, and has too many trolls (Classic Xer, Einzige, Cynic Hero, the libertarian guy with a thousand names, and others). It is hard to use too; you have to expand the writing panel every time you answer a post in order to see anything you're responding to, for example. And a tiny little link at the bottom of the page is what you have to see in order to quote a post. And the letters in a post are too small on a phone, cutting off many potential participants these days. And so on. Probably nobody can change these characteristics, even supposing they are willing to do it.

But, the secret group is also a FB forum, so the new discussion forum deserves first mention over Ryen W. Thomas' domain of his chosen "friends".

[Ghost]

(06-09-2021, 11:21 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

Well, turnings never change in an instant. The moment we use to define the start is just the moment when it went from being 51/49 to 49/51. The first signs of the coming 4T came after 9/11, but the country was very clearly in more of an Unraveling mood still. It wasn't definitively Crisis until late 2008. The first signs of the 3T came in the late 70s (around 76 onward maybe), even though it didn't fully begin until the "Morning in America." 1960 presidential campaign ads seem surprisingly "awaken-y," even though that turning didn't begin until several years later. And so on.

We've been seeing emerging 1T features since around 2017, which is part of why I believe we'll reach the start point by around 2025 or so.

1. The "remember 9/11" rule is very flawed and I will even argue abused (like some questionable people born in 1997-1998 claiming to remember things in 1999 and 2000 yet say they're the last that can remember 9/11). Some people can remember things even as babies, while there are a shit ton of people born in 1995 that can't remember 9/11 at all. Preschool is also optional, and some people can even attend daycare at six months old.
   
2. I don't think 1976 had anything 3T about it. Although there were 3T influences as early as 1977 (Star Wars, improvements in technology, the very beginning of the echo boom), I think late 1980 is the absolute earliest you can call 3T because that was when Reagan got elected.
   
3. Even though this is an unpopular opinion (especially on typical generation talk subreddits and websites), 2017 didn't have any 1T features at all. Trump's presidency and the Charlottesville riots are simply unthinkable in a 1T.
   

[galaxy]

(06-16-2021, 08:45 AM)Ghost Wrote: Even though this is an unpopular opinion (especially on typical generation talk subreddits and websites), 2017 didn't have any 1T features at all. Trump's presidency and the Charlottesville riots are simply unthinkable in a 1T.

"having some features of a 1T" and "being 1T" are very different.

I'm referring first and foremost to the rise of "cancel culture," which really became a powerful force in 2017. 1T is a conformist era. The 1T way is "follow the new rules of society or be ostracized from society, your choice." During a 1T, you stay in your lane, know your place, don't rock the boat...or face the consequences. There are absolutes which are (or "should be," according to the society) obvious to everyone, and if they're not obvious to you, then "something is wrong with you." Things are clearly, unambiguously, and unchangeably right or wrong, and little distinction is seen between questioning the society's views and attacking them.

As for Trump's presidency and Charlottesville being unthinkable in a 1T - that's the whole point. These 1T features began to emerge as a reaction to those events. Every turning is simultaneously both a result of and a reaction to the one before it. A 1T has an innocent and quiet culture not just because of the changes that occurred during the prior 4T but also because of the memory of it. A 4T is traumatic for all involved, even if it has a victorious ending. After it's over, society wants nothing to do with intensity of any kind, and is very quick to shut it down if it threatens to appear. For example, watch horror movies. Those from the 1950s are almost guaranteed to be pathetic by today's standards. They intensify during the passionate 2T, reach their maximum during the cynical and jaded 3T, and then weaken again during the 4T as real life begins to become plenty horrifying enough.

[David Horn]

(06-17-2021, 11:36 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-16-2021, 08:45 AM)Ghost Wrote: Even though this is an unpopular opinion (especially on typical generation talk subreddits and websites), 2017 didn't have any 1T features at all. Trump's presidency and the Charlottesville riots are simply unthinkable in a 1T.

"having some features of a 1T" and "being 1T" are very different.

I'm referring first and foremost to the rise of "cancel culture," which really became a powerful force in 2017. 1T is a conformist era. The 1T way is "follow the new rules of society or be ostracized from society, your choice." During a 1T, you stay in your lane, know your place, don't rock the boat...or face the consequences. There are absolutes which are (or "should be," according to the society) obvious to everyone, and if they're not obvious to you, then "something is wrong with you." Things are clearly, unambiguously, and unchangeably right or wrong, and little distinction is seen between questioning the society's views and attacking them.

As for Trump's presidency and Charlottesville being unthinkable in a 1T - that's the whole point. These 1T features began to emerge as a reaction to those events. Every turning is simultaneously both a result of and a reaction to the one before it. A 1T has an innocent and quiet culture not just because of the changes that occurred during the prior 4T but also because of the memory of it. A 4T is traumatic for all involved, even if it has a victorious ending. After it's over, society wants nothing to do with intensity of any kind, and is very quick to shut it down if it threatens to appear. For example, watch horror movies. Those from the 1950s are almost guaranteed to be pathetic by today's standards. They intensify during the passionate 2T, reach their maximum during the cynical and jaded 3T, and then weaken again during the 4T as real life begins to become plenty horrifying enough.

I agree. We're tired and looking at the precursors of a quieter time.  We're not there yet, but we certainly want to be.

[Remy Renault]

I'm not sure "cancel culture" is a foreshadowing of the coming 1T. If anything, it strikes me as symptomatic of the divisiveness of contemporary society and is an overblown reaction to the "hate culture" of the other side, namely Trump and the larger "alt right". There's nothing sensible about "Hitchcock should be inexorably banished form the cultural lexicon because he was a misogynist" or "Faulkner and Hemingway were chauvinist drunks so F**k 'em". The key is to find a degree of equilibrium I think.