(10-03-2016, 10:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Mike, you're seriously going to try to pass off 1937, in the middle of the Great Depression, as a "peak"? Come on.
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
1937 was the business cycle peak according to the NBER which is the organization that tracks such things. But I didn't use 1937 for the very reason you mentioned. I chose to use round dates of 1950-1980, for which you accused me of cherry picking. And I showed that if you change your choice of years from 1945-1973 to 1946-1973--just a one year difference, you get a completely different result that invalidates your conclusion (and supports mine). So who is cherry picking here? In fact to make your argument work you pretty much HAVE to start in 1945 or 1944.