Report Card for Donald Trump

[Mikebert]

(01-03-2017, 03:27 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Mike,


Oh, and:

Four - Given this shift in manufacturing (even of the high-value added stuff like Iphones and computer chips that we were originally supposed to hold on to when this outsourcing thing got started) to East Asia, the extent to which IT/telecommunications has enabled the emergence of these sorts of global supply chains, the tremendous growth in China's IT sector, the general pattern of hegemons only holding on for one or at most two k-waves, you can make a substantial argument, as you begun to in your last post, that China may in fact be the locus of the next k-wave/future hegemony, and the chief beneficiary of the tail-end of this one.

Just something to consider.

That was obvious in the 1990's. Who else had the potential?  But my analysis suggested China would not emerge a hegemon until mid-century.  Typically a new hegemon first reaches economic dominance (US in the 1880's) then financial dominance (US after 1914) and then finally hegemony (US in 1943).  Since China was not scheduled to overtake the US in GDP until the 2020's or so, I wouldn't except this to translate to hegemony until around 2060.  At this time I was operating with a 70 years cycle: 1918-1991 and 1992-2060.  Hence a second round of US hegemony.  I showed you all this already Jordan, so why are you rehashing it?

And why come back as an alias?  Why not use your old handle?