Report Card for Donald Trump

[Mikebert]

(01-03-2017, 03:27 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Mike,


Oh, and:

Four - Given this shift in manufacturing (even of the high-value added stuff like Iphones and computer chips that we were originally supposed to hold on to when this outsourcing thing got started) to East Asia, the extent to which IT/telecommunications has enabled the emergence of these sorts of global supply chains, the tremendous growth in China's IT sector, the general pattern of hegemons only holding on for one or at most two k-waves, you can make a substantial argument, as you begun to in your last post, that China may in fact be the locus of the next k-wave/future hegemony, and the chief beneficiary of the tail-end of this one.

Just something to consider.

You are coming at this from only one perspective. K-waves are independent of Modelski's work. He was using the concept in an economic output sense, which is the sense that is least supported by evidence. The original concept was monetary, movements in prices and interest rates, which actually occurred. The interpretation in terms of output made by Kondratiev was never actually established to have happened. I used Harry Dent's, concept of a "new economy" developing along the lines of a product life cycle: innovation, growth, maturity, and death and Modelski's concept of these new economies as leading sectors to develop my own approach to a real interpretation of the K-wave, to supplement the monetary definition to identify cycles before 1790.

It was just a tool. I originally tried to use this to explain cycle timing in the 1990's and early 2000's. But once a 2001 K-winter did not happen, it lost its utility. The monetary version still has some, limited utility but there is not much there either. This is why I haven't done anything with it.

Also trade does not explain trillions of missing output. Our trade deficit is about half a trillion, too small to account for all of it. It plays a role, and I would support some protectionism, but its not very important.

Also, exports involve foreign consumers, so that too comes from consumers.
No net money comes from equity markets either. All output (GDP) is created to be purchased by end consumers. Equity markets are buying future GDP (net output or final sales), which must be sold to consumers. Equity cash also comes from consumers. Ultimately it must come from consumers.