01-06-2017, 12:52 PM
I don't know that it's a different theory from Strauss & Howe. There is a subcycle within the generational cycle of alternation between dominant generations - idealists and civics - and recessive generations - adaptives and reactives.
If there's a pattern here, it's an interesting question whether Trump fits into the Carter slot or the FDR slot. Certainly Bill Clinton adapted to the Reagan orthodoxy the same way Eisenhower did to FDR's. Carter tried to change it, but his ideas - zero based budgeting, etc. - didn't work on a federal level. If Trump moves toward real protectionism and tries to disassemble the globalist system, he might end up in the mold of Hoover and Carter. On the other hand, one could argue that Obama has already moved well away from the Reagan orthodoxy; he certainly didn't embrace it the way Clinton did.
If there's a pattern here, it's an interesting question whether Trump fits into the Carter slot or the FDR slot. Certainly Bill Clinton adapted to the Reagan orthodoxy the same way Eisenhower did to FDR's. Carter tried to change it, but his ideas - zero based budgeting, etc. - didn't work on a federal level. If Trump moves toward real protectionism and tries to disassemble the globalist system, he might end up in the mold of Hoover and Carter. On the other hand, one could argue that Obama has already moved well away from the Reagan orthodoxy; he certainly didn't embrace it the way Clinton did.