(01-06-2017, 02:50 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:Quote:#2 is non-seasonal and flies in the face of the S&H model.
How do you figure?
This is the discussion I would rather have with you. This is a cogent encapsulation of the key issue on which the S&H model will stand or fail. Both of your options are consistent with the S&H model, but they are really the last stand for the model. I would propose a third possibility. That neither of these there options is correct, but that Trump is Bush II, to be followed by another Obama, that is, we continue on as we have been for the past few decade, the 2008 4T trigger starts to seem as invalid as the 2001 trigger does. In this third case the S&H model is invalidated.
Even if #2 comes true wouldn't this support the idea of a 2016 trigger? I would submit that Trumps victory was unexpected, just like 911 or the 2008 crisis.