01-06-2017, 04:35 PM
(01-06-2017, 02:10 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: TeacherInExile,Actually, on this thread anyway, I'm arguing Door #3: Trump as Berlusconi. Why? Because the similarity between these two men is--in a word--eerie, which is easily supportable, the evidence of which I will continue to cite. Too, why must an analogue be limited to past American leaders, as you seem to suggest with Possibility #1 (which I can buy in to somewhat) and Possibility #2? Adolf Hitler, after all, believed in a Third Reich, a Teutonic pattern of sorts. Was Hitler analogous in the end to either Charlemagne or Bismarck? What precedent in the long Germanic history suggested that an ultimately reviled leader, such as Hitler, would spring forth in one of the most sophisticated cultures in the world, only to rule with such utter barbarism? None that I can detect.
Predictions, I'll bite.
1) Trump as Carter:
Despite Trump's rhetoric, he fails in making any lasting change, and the country goes through another brutal recession, the jobs don't come back, his efforts at foreign policy blow up in his face, etc. The Dems make big gains in 2018 (despite the unfavorable map) and especially 2020. They run somebody who can excite the Bernie Sanders types as well as the people (particularly minorities) who swung the primary for Hillary then failed to show up for the general. They capture enough statehouses by 2020 to put a serious dent in Republican gerrymandering (which will still be limited by the fact that Dems are concentrated in major cities and the Republicans in rural areas and exurbs). The Republicans try and resist, but are irreparably tarnished via association with Trump and their worsening hold on nonwhite and young voters. The Dems push through a laundry list of Obama and Sanders campaign promises, building a lasting coalition of nonwhite and Yuppie voters that function as a latter day New Deal coalition. The Republicans squeak in in the 2030s with some nonwhite guy who, despite some conservative tendencies, is nonetheless pro-SSM, immigration, environmentalism, what have you. Obama becomes the Teddy to this (2020s Dem)'s FDR, the Nixon to their Reagan, with Trump as the last gasp of those evil, reactionary, white men.
2) Trump as Reagan:
Trumps actually manages to follow through on his campaign promises, and they actually end up working. Immigration reform tightens the labor market (raising wages), infrastructure spending and tariffs actually lead to substantial job growth, he either avoids launching any wars/they seem successful and popular. The remainder of the Rust Belt turns red, VA shifts back thanks to the booming defense contractor business red-shifting NVA, and Trump is re-elected with not just commanding leads in the Electoral College, but a mandate from the popular vote. The Dem's half-hearted efforts to resist with sanctuary <insert place here>s and sit-ins at Congress blow up in their face. They limp helplessly from election to election searching desperately for someone who can bring back the Obama magic. Pence takes office in 2025, only for changing demographics (Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are now purple states trending blue) and misteps (possibly inherited from Trump, possibly not) losing him the election in 2028. The Dems get back in, but the turn towards nationalism has been set and they are once again dominated by their union base (who managed to reorganize in the private secot once labor markets are tight and jobs plentiful), and have to carry out their agenda in the context of domestic (Green?) infrastructure investment and benefits targeted at the working class. Or maybe they come back in as purely the party of the professional class, switching around completely from the old New Deal coalition.
These possibilities are exclusive of others, and are only meant to serve as starting points for ideas on how things could shake out.
All I'm saying is that the model of leadership that Trump may follow could be that of Berlusconi, or Putin, or indeed anyone outside the American experience. Can you allow for that?