01-07-2017, 03:00 PM
In the second full week of January we should have far more polls on favorability (if not approval, as he is not yet President), most likely in states that did not vote for Donald Trump, than the one or so a week as we have been getting. A poll for California or Connecticut would be uninteresting.
We shall soon see (in the middle of the week) whether people in states that barely voted for Donald Trump have misgivings about him. North Carolina, home of one of the busiest pollsters in America, will be among the states polled this weekend. North Carolina is not that far to the right of Virginia.
Quinnipiac heavily polls such usual swing states as Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Wisconsin has a law school that does much polling. Michigan has some shaky pollsters, but at this point, beggars can't be choosers.
After March or so, approval ratings will be about his performance instead of about his promises. This is not a thread for predictions except to derive likely electoral results from polling data. If Donald Trump is no better than he seems according to the states for which we have polls, then he or his successor (in the event of a lightning stroke in broad daylight from You Know Who)... then the Republicans will have deep trouble in Gubernatorial elections (they are safe in the House and Senate) in 2018 and overall in 2020. "Favorability" relates what people think of a politician as a person; "approval" relates what people think about the desirability of his policies and whether they see the politician effective in achieving his policies.
Polls for New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia are the sort that one would expect to see before a coup in some other country.
We shall soon see (in the middle of the week) whether people in states that barely voted for Donald Trump have misgivings about him. North Carolina, home of one of the busiest pollsters in America, will be among the states polled this weekend. North Carolina is not that far to the right of Virginia.
Quinnipiac heavily polls such usual swing states as Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Wisconsin has a law school that does much polling. Michigan has some shaky pollsters, but at this point, beggars can't be choosers.
After March or so, approval ratings will be about his performance instead of about his promises. This is not a thread for predictions except to derive likely electoral results from polling data. If Donald Trump is no better than he seems according to the states for which we have polls, then he or his successor (in the event of a lightning stroke in broad daylight from You Know Who)... then the Republicans will have deep trouble in Gubernatorial elections (they are safe in the House and Senate) in 2018 and overall in 2020. "Favorability" relates what people think of a politician as a person; "approval" relates what people think about the desirability of his policies and whether they see the politician effective in achieving his policies.
Polls for New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia are the sort that one would expect to see before a coup in some other country.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.