01-09-2017, 04:09 PM
"Nope, he's [Trump] not FDR, Hitler, Mussolini, Berlusconi, or Idi Amin."
Agreed, with the exception of Berlusconi. Trump transmogrifying into Hitler or Mussolini is a "fat-tail risk." (Idi Amin? C'mon, I know you're being facetious there.) Trump going down in American history as a Gray Champion, ala Washington, Lincoln or FDR? Don't see it in his DNA, though I would assign it at least a 5-10 percent probability.
The impetus for my starting this thread can be traced to two sources: an excellent biography titled The Sack of Rome: Media + Money + Celebrity = Power = Silvio Berlusconi (2007), and a recent article by former editor-in-chief of The Economist, hardly a "liberal rag":
"America’s Berlusconi"
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commen...ail2friend
Some excerpts from this article:
For the past couple of weeks, the world has been guessing at how US President-elect Donald Trump will behave in office and what policies he will pursue, following a long campaign full of contradictory statements. America’s previous businessman-presidents – Warren G. Harding and Herbert Hoover – were around too long ago to provide much guidance. There is, however, a recent European precedent: Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi.
What Trump has achieved, Berlusconi pioneered. Like Trump, Berlusconi is a businessman who made his first fortune in real estate. When he entered politics in 1994, he was an outsider, albeit one who, also like Trump, had long been close to plenty of insiders.
The similarities don’t end there. Both Trump and Berlusconi are intimately familiar with the insides of courtrooms; Trump has moved fast since the election to settle fraud lawsuits against Trump University, but has about 70 other suits outstanding against him and his businesses. And both have an array of conflicts of interest with their role as head of government, thanks to their large business empires. Berlusconi like Trump, managed to present himself as a rich man and a populist. He preferred to communicate directly with the people, bypassing traditional media and party structures. His propensity for glamorous women and glitzy homes somehow enhanced his popular appeal.
The comparison between Trump and Berlusconi is far from superficial. In fact, Italy’s experience with Berlusconi – or Il Cavaliere (the Knight), as he is known in his country – provides six clear lessons for Americans and the world on what to expect from Trump.
First, no one should underestimate the next US president...
The second lesson is that Trump will probably pursue what is essentially a permanent political campaign, injecting himself directly into conversations...
The third lesson from Berlusconi’s success is that even a very wealthy and powerful person can wield the victim narrative effectively...
The fourth lesson is that mudslinging is bound to happen. Berlusconi’s used his TV stations and newspapers so liberally to smear his opponents that the writer Roberto Saviano called them his macchina del fango or “mud machine.”
Trump’s attacks on the media, often carried out via Twitter, are a precursor to this, as are his campaign vows to “open up” libel laws. His chief mud-slinger is likely to be his newly appointed chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, the former chair of the ultra right-wing Breitbart News.
The fifth lesson is that Trump will probably continue to prize loyalty above all else in his administration, just as Berlusconi has...
The final lesson of Berlusconi is that expressions of admiration for strongmen like Russian President Vladimir Putin should be taken seriously. Narcissistic lone rangers like Berlusconi and Trump are accustomed to making personal deals, and prefer other strongmen as their interlocutors. Berlusconi’s favorite overseas visits while in office were to Putin’s dacha and former Libyan dictator Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s tent, not to boring European Council meetings or G20 summits.
In the end, however, there is one key difference between Silvio Berlusconi and Donald Trump. Berlusconi had no real agenda while in office, except to further his business and personal interests and nurture his own power by providing resources and favors to his supporters. His greatest disservice to Italians was his inaction in the face of economic stagnation, but at least he didn’t make it worse. Trump, by contrast, does have an agenda, however hard to read. Whether it will make things better or worse remains to be seen.
Mark Twain's now-clichéd observation that history does not repeat, it rhymes, is as operative now as it was when he first said it, but...
...historical analogues, though never perfectly correlated, can nevertheless be somewhat predictive and at the very least instructive as to how a given leader might lead or behave while in office.
Agreed, with the exception of Berlusconi. Trump transmogrifying into Hitler or Mussolini is a "fat-tail risk." (Idi Amin? C'mon, I know you're being facetious there.) Trump going down in American history as a Gray Champion, ala Washington, Lincoln or FDR? Don't see it in his DNA, though I would assign it at least a 5-10 percent probability.
The impetus for my starting this thread can be traced to two sources: an excellent biography titled The Sack of Rome: Media + Money + Celebrity = Power = Silvio Berlusconi (2007), and a recent article by former editor-in-chief of The Economist, hardly a "liberal rag":
"America’s Berlusconi"
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commen...ail2friend
Some excerpts from this article:
For the past couple of weeks, the world has been guessing at how US President-elect Donald Trump will behave in office and what policies he will pursue, following a long campaign full of contradictory statements. America’s previous businessman-presidents – Warren G. Harding and Herbert Hoover – were around too long ago to provide much guidance. There is, however, a recent European precedent: Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi.
What Trump has achieved, Berlusconi pioneered. Like Trump, Berlusconi is a businessman who made his first fortune in real estate. When he entered politics in 1994, he was an outsider, albeit one who, also like Trump, had long been close to plenty of insiders.
The similarities don’t end there. Both Trump and Berlusconi are intimately familiar with the insides of courtrooms; Trump has moved fast since the election to settle fraud lawsuits against Trump University, but has about 70 other suits outstanding against him and his businesses. And both have an array of conflicts of interest with their role as head of government, thanks to their large business empires. Berlusconi like Trump, managed to present himself as a rich man and a populist. He preferred to communicate directly with the people, bypassing traditional media and party structures. His propensity for glamorous women and glitzy homes somehow enhanced his popular appeal.
The comparison between Trump and Berlusconi is far from superficial. In fact, Italy’s experience with Berlusconi – or Il Cavaliere (the Knight), as he is known in his country – provides six clear lessons for Americans and the world on what to expect from Trump.
First, no one should underestimate the next US president...
The second lesson is that Trump will probably pursue what is essentially a permanent political campaign, injecting himself directly into conversations...
The third lesson from Berlusconi’s success is that even a very wealthy and powerful person can wield the victim narrative effectively...
The fourth lesson is that mudslinging is bound to happen. Berlusconi’s used his TV stations and newspapers so liberally to smear his opponents that the writer Roberto Saviano called them his macchina del fango or “mud machine.”
Trump’s attacks on the media, often carried out via Twitter, are a precursor to this, as are his campaign vows to “open up” libel laws. His chief mud-slinger is likely to be his newly appointed chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, the former chair of the ultra right-wing Breitbart News.
The fifth lesson is that Trump will probably continue to prize loyalty above all else in his administration, just as Berlusconi has...
The final lesson of Berlusconi is that expressions of admiration for strongmen like Russian President Vladimir Putin should be taken seriously. Narcissistic lone rangers like Berlusconi and Trump are accustomed to making personal deals, and prefer other strongmen as their interlocutors. Berlusconi’s favorite overseas visits while in office were to Putin’s dacha and former Libyan dictator Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s tent, not to boring European Council meetings or G20 summits.
In the end, however, there is one key difference between Silvio Berlusconi and Donald Trump. Berlusconi had no real agenda while in office, except to further his business and personal interests and nurture his own power by providing resources and favors to his supporters. His greatest disservice to Italians was his inaction in the face of economic stagnation, but at least he didn’t make it worse. Trump, by contrast, does have an agenda, however hard to read. Whether it will make things better or worse remains to be seen.
Mark Twain's now-clichéd observation that history does not repeat, it rhymes, is as operative now as it was when he first said it, but...
...historical analogues, though never perfectly correlated, can nevertheless be somewhat predictive and at the very least instructive as to how a given leader might lead or behave while in office.