01-17-2017, 12:14 AM
(01-16-2017, 01:49 PM)sbarrera Wrote: One of the propositions of generational theory is that the Fourth Turning is a time when a new values regime is instituted in the civic order. As the 2016 elections unfolded, I got the impression from the successes of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump that the country was indeed ready to move on from the Culture Wars and focus on building government. This was because both of those candidates were galvanizing voters with offers of Big Government solutions - whether enhancing the social welfare state with a better healthcare program and free college tuition, or investing money in infrastructure and job creation. There was even the promise of a giant wall to protect us from illegal migrants - simultaneously creating construction jobs and protecting the jobs that the migrants are stealing!
But now that Donald Trump has been elected and has appointed an alt-right cabinet, it appears that the true Trump domestic agenda will be the annihilation of the New Deal order - which has lately earned the derisive moniker of the 'Deep State' - and the undoing of recent advancements in instituting progressive values. Is he just a con artist, or is he too stupid to see what his own advisors are up to - who knows? There has been an upswelling of resistance against his agenda, with the same energy that charged the election - suggesting that the Culture Wars rage on.
Or perhaps the Culture Wars are in their denouement, with a final push back from the right, after which the lines will be drawn and the values regime will be established for the next couple of phases of the secular cycle. Here is where I see some of those values lining up, based on recent trends and my impression of the broad consensus, if such a thing exists:
* Pro-gun rights.
* Marijuana becomes legalized.
* Equal rights for gays, but not so much for the transgendered.
* Abortion remains legal, but heavily restricted.
* Gambling and pornography mainstreamed. And tattoos.
* Entertainment, in the form of music, TV and movies - gets darker for awhile as all those mid-life Xers brood.
* We remain essentially a multi-cultural society with religious freedom.
Less clear to me are where the lines will be drawn on these issues:
* Are we abandoning the old welfare nation-state model and settling on a corporatist oligarchy, with little to no protections for the lower economic classes - the 99 per cent left to fend for themselves?
* Are we willing to sacrifice the environment to keep the fossil-fuel industry strong, in the name of jobs for some of those 99 per cent?
* Will we reform our justice system, or continue to have a huge prison population and intractable tension between law enforcement and racial minorities?
It seems that if the New Deal Deep State does implode, we could be stuck with a world of corporate mastery - ruled by banks, energy companies, and a privately operated police state. Or maybe progressives will rally and rebuild a New New Deal on the ashes of the old. My feeling is that resolving these conflicts is where we are at now in this Fourth Turning.
I would love to know what others think about this!
Gun rights as currently touted reduces everything valuable in society, because all we hear about are constant massacres of innocent people by idiots who should not have guns. This will be a conflict necessary to resolve. If the pro-new deal side comes back and wins, then "gun rights" will be reduced, but the gun nuts will fight back and this will have to be resolved, probably with a brief civil war.
The millennials have been raising the vibe of music that was so darkened in the Gen X youth era. That is more typical of 4Ts according to Strauss and Howe. That should continue into the 1T; a trend toward brighter and more innocuous rather than dark and cynical protest. The last 1T set the standard for "innocuity."
I don't see any let up in rights for transgendered. The LBGT categories all go together now.
If the 4T is typical, porno stuff and gambling may be more restricted. In CA though gambling is heavily advertised, and that should continue in areas where Native Americans use it for income.