(01-24-2017, 04:07 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Seriously, detail me the scenario that leads directly from something like Taiwan to either country launching their missiles at the other in the full knowledge of a corresponding attack on their own facilities and populations, and explain to me why it would be the only outcome.
The issue is simple. What is the point of engaging in a military conflict in which you cannot win? Suppose Trump decided to blockcade these islands. Can you show a path where he can win? I don't see it, and if I see this, so do the Chinese. They can keep pushing until Trump gives up, after all, is he going to end civilization over some fucking islands in the South China Sea? The US considers the Carribean an American lake--what's the difference?
And this is the problem. In the old days such issues would be resolved by all-out great power coalition wars (read Kennedy's book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers). You can't do that now, an all-out conflict would go nuclear. So the great powers resorted to a minuet, with proxy wars to make their point. Most of the great powers, (except for the strongest two) got a clue and pulled out, seeing it was a fools game. Does China want to play this game? No! They want what I would want, sure things--like the Spratley's. (The islands no, the principle, yes).