Report Card for Donald Trump

[David Horn]

(02-08-2017, 01:51 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:

(02-08-2017, 01:23 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I think a null result would raise serious questions as to whether there is anything to the model at all.

I totally agree.  That would cast the validity of S&H theory into serious question.  And I have always had some doubts, as with any simple model that can never account for all complexities.

Let me make a counter case.  In sports, ties are possible* though rare.  In politics, they should be even less common, but that's not the same as never.  We have an energized right already, and the left seems to be joining the fray now.  They are roughly equivalent in size.  Social media make base-management much easier, and discipline much more immediate, so what's to stop an evenly balanced match-up from going 15 rounds with both fighters still standing?  Both bases will assume they won, but were denied the victory.  The not-base members of society will simply move on, with power being alternately ping-ponged with declining intensity, or a new "center" party takes charge through a reverse-Trump play. 

Note: I'm not pitching this as a solution, just as a possibility.

* assuming the sport actually allows ties, of course.