02-09-2017, 01:26 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2017, 02:00 AM by Eric the Green.)
(02-08-2017, 04:55 PM)David Horn Wrote:(02-07-2017, 05:04 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: I would never discount the potential for violence. After all, I'm old enough to remember the "revolutionary" violence of the Weather Underground and the Black Panthers (the latter "more sinned against than sinning," perhaps.) Indeed, in order to refresh my teenage memory and gain a more mature perspective, I watched the recent documentaries about these two militant groups.
As for armed conflict, I'm not hearing the calls for violence, much less the kind of eliminationist rhetoric, that might spark an outright civil war. It takes a militant leader with a "megaphone" to begin an insurrection against the state. I don't see any Mark Rudds and Huey Newtons on the horizon. Do you?
No, I think the violence is all still at the theatric level: break windows, burn cars (perhaps), but no direct attacks on the police. You were a teen; I was an adult activist. I got pulled-in by the FBI, because they were certain I knew the whereabouts of Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn. It was an enlightening experience. Even then, theater trumped revolution.
I'm not sure what would push the country far enough to try ACW 2.0, but we're not even close at the moment.
When I brought up Ruby Ridge, Waco and Oklahoma City bombing 1992-1995 here, somebody said that was a long time ago. I dissent. Since we've had only one year when the right wing has not been able to handcuff America, 22 years is virtually nothing. That right wing movement of Neo-Nazis and Timothy McVeigh never went away, and now exists as the Drump White House and 52 Republican Senators. As I've suggested, what might happen may not be a full-scale ACW 2.0, as the militias of the 1990s and the gun nuts and tea party neo-Waco wackos of today think. But it doesn't have to be, to be a violent crisis episode. PBS just broadcast a special on this 1992-95 right-wing rebellion.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperien...ty/player/
Quote:On April 19, 1995, Timothy McVeigh, a former soldier deeply influenced by the literature and ideas of the radical right, parked a Ryder truck with a five-ton fertilizer bomb in front of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal building in Oklahoma City. Moments later, 168 people were killed and 675 were injured in the blast. OKLAHOMA CITY traces the events — including the deadly encounters between American citizens and law enforcement at Ruby Ridge and Waco — that led McVeigh to commit the worst act of domestic terrorism in American history. With a virulent strain of anti-government anger still with us, the film is both a cautionary tale and an extremely timely warning.
If the Left does regain power by or before 2024, then the Right-wing, which feels it is entitled to America, will rebel in the way that it did in the 1990s, with illegal armed militias and reactionaries like the guys in Nevada and Oregon that seized federal land. They will believe that the socialists are coming for their guns and their tax money, and will rebel. It will be as hard to put down as Koresh and McVeigh were, but in a couple of years it will be over, and that will be our ACW 2.0.
If the Right remains in power under Drump, with possibly a Bannon dictatorship or Trump dynasty in the 2020s, then the Left will rebel, with about as much success. This rebellion will consist of black bloc thugs and blacks rioting in the streets because of continuing police brutality sanctioned by Jeff Sessions. This will probably break out sooner though, well before 2020, and after it's put down, the Left may still have time to take power in the mid-20s, despite the "black" rebellion; with the same scenario as above. So perhaps the two sides will take turns making rebellion, with little to show for it either way.
Remember too that I predicted well in advance that Feb-March 1993 would be a pivotal violent moment. I wasn't sure how dangerous it would be; world war was even a possibility, I thought. A dangerous violent event with consequences for the future, I predicted. But Uranus conj. Neptune brings about new political conditions, frameworks and issues; it's the start of a great cycle. And it did. The previous one had occurred in 1821, when the Missouri Compromise in the USA set the stage for the polarization that came to a head in the 1860s. The 1993 conj. has a similar meaning, so the first terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Waco standoff and mass suicide of Feb-April 1993 fits the bill and was the sign of things that have come, and are still to come.
Remember the conjunction was also in effect from about 1988-1998, with the exact conj. in 1993. In 1989 Saturn and Jupiter were also aligned with Uranus and Neptune, which is why I predicted 18 years earlier that a major revolution would occur in the Fall of 1989. When 1989 came, months before the event, I predicted it would occur in "the Soviet Empire." It fully fulfilled what I had expected for years beforehand. So this whole era was the end of one political cycle in international affairs and the start of a new one. We call it "the new world order," thanks to George Bush I's phrase after the Gulf War in 1991 (which I also predicted, of course). And to me, 1993 is yesterday. And I think it is, really. Rebellion against "the new world order" has become a rallying cry for this right-wing movement, Marie Le Pen, Brexit and Trumpland.
If you don't think the Uranus-Neptune conjunction was significant, just take a tour of the birthdates of nations. You'd find that more of them were born/reborn and created in the 1820 and early 1990s periods than any other times in history by far. And consider how the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648 set up the world order in those times. That's why I predicted it would happen in the early 1990s again.
Of course, a more drastic scenario is possible too. And remember this 4T lasts until 2028-29. If certain coastal states illegally secede, such as CA, from a USA that is no longer what it was (and which it is fast becoming now), and does not back down; and Trump or his dictator successor declares war to keep it (or them) in the union, then we have our ACW 2.0. It could be very dangerous, and should be avoided. If you watch the PBS series though, you'll see that the terrorist fanatic Tim McVeigh predicted civil war. I think however if the Left regains power, and Texas or Alabama etc. secede instead, there's a good chance the Left will just let them go, and so no major war will happen; just a painful and inconvenient break-up preceded by some wacko right rebellions.