Report Card for Donald Trump

[David Horn]

(02-08-2017, 04:26 PM)Mikebert Wrote:

(02-08-2017, 01:10 PM)David Horn Wrote: Mike, why is failure to cement change not a potential 4T result as much as success?  The actions were still taken, even though they didn't have legs.  The battle was fought to a draw ... that happens sometimes.  I agree that the result will be muddy at best, but the back-and-forth will eventually end, and an unsettled but resigned mood will have to prevail.  It will be a somber 1T, but no worse than those endured by the losers of earlier 4Ts.  Humans only have so much tolerance for upheaval.

Because it assumes things like 4T exist.  The S&H  cycle concept has not been validated.  It won't be validated unless there is an obvious 4T that happens when it is supposed to. And this could easily happen.  And, depending on how it happens we can backdate the 4T from today in a way that will be obvious, and readily accepted by people unfamiliar with S&H theory.

This cycle is about history.  History can be done as a humanity discipline or as social science.  S&H were working in the latter approach.  As a science it is subject to the rules of scientific investigation.  Theories have to be verifiable, otherwise they are not science.  Therefore what they proposed has to be falsifiable.  If it doesn't work, this should be acknowledged.

You are also assuming that the concept of a 4T is well defined and fixed.  That was my point.  If you loosen the bounds a bit, many solutions can emerge.  The mid-19th century British 4T could also be considered an anomaly, albeit of a totally different nature.  We also have a feature at work that is similar to the Heisenberg principle, where observation impacts the result.  We're not the only ones looking for a result.