02-11-2017, 07:08 PM
Quote:WW I did have high taxes (73%) as a special measure.
And kept by the incoming administration? Just tossing ideas out there.
Quote:Yes, and that depression would itself be an important crisis event, and dealing with it would be part of the 4T. And if Trump (who apparently didn't solve the problem is we have a depression) can start three a 12 year Republican era, then so can Gabbard. So we would have 2028-2040 included in the 4T. I see no reason to start a 4T in 2008. Better might be 2024, when the ill-fated Pence (Hoover) comes in. I cannot see any scenario in which Trump is successful and 2008 is the 4T start. I don't think it will ever make sense to add Obama era as an organic addition to a later Trump-Pence era in which all the 4T stuff happens. Obama and Trump are like oil and water, they don't mix.
Depends on how lasting it is. Remember that a lot of the modern social reforms in Britain occurred immediately after WWII, under Clement Attlee. Even the end of WWII in the US had a stiff, but brief, drop in output.
Hoover was part of the last 4T. Obama presided over the most dramatic plunge in Democratic political control in modern history. It may have happened over two terms instead of one, but it still happened.
Starting a 4T in 2024 under this scenario would be dumb. You're trying to shoehorn the outcome into the mold followed by the previous 4T.
Quote:Don’t the Chinese have more US investments than the US has Chinese investments? Hasn’t the US run trade deficits with China for a long time? Trade imbalances in one direction have to be offset by investment imbalances in the other, otherwise the yuan would soar in value, making Chinese imports uncompetitive. Surely China must have more investments here than we there.
This is an odd question. You should be well aware that China accumulated several trillion dollars of the most liquid US asset available, US Treasuries. They have since been selling them to prevent a precipitous decline in their currency, and are down to a little over $1 trillion. A breakdown in trade between the two would obviate the need for this process. They are already struggling to compete on price terms with newly industrializing countries in SE Asia/Bangladesh.