death rates of white middle class American males

[David Horn]

(02-20-2017, 04:08 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:

(02-20-2017, 03:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I can't find that thread, so I guess I want to answer here. If the year 2001 begins the homelander generation (Z), then it will last for 24 years. The saeculum will not diverge from the cosmic cycle. Well, you heard it here. Check back here after 2025!

I ran across the same article this morning in The American Conservative, and instantly found it eminently germane to S&H theory.  The passage below written by Nicholas Eberstadt was particularly riveting:

Yes, things are very different indeed these days in the “real America” outside the bubble. In fact, things have been going badly wrong in America since the beginning of the 21st century.

It turns out that the year 2000 marks a grim historical milestone of sorts for our nation. For whatever reasons, the Great American Escalator, which had lifted successive generations of Americans to ever higher standards of living and levels of social well-being, broke down around then—and broke down very badly.

The warning lights have been flashing, and the klaxons sounding, for more than a decade and a half...

It is my contention that the Year 2000 is a generational marker, the end of the Millennial cohort.  The 16-year malaise since then, which Eberstadt supports well, could be characterized as a complex Fourth Turning crisis or a hybrid 3T/4T turning (an extended cusp, if that is possible without invalidating S&H theory).

I would argue that something started going wrong about 1973, when the rise in productivity and rising wages for workers became disconnected.  We relied on dual-incomes and credit as alternatives to rising wages and salaries until that stopped working, and now here we are.  But the damage was done in the '70s.  It just took us a while to notice.