(06-07-2016, 08:12 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The Chinese can decide at a moment's notice, and at their convenience, that all dealings with business in China will be made in the yuan.
Yes they can. This would be similar to deciding to exchange all those dollars and dollar-denominated securities for yuan (reminibi). And that would have a similar impact as a US tariff on China, which I point is something Trump (and I) want. My earlier point is the very things Classic brought up as scary things we should avoid and as reasons to support Trump are things Trump (and I) WANT to do, and which are not scary at all, IMO (Playwrite would disagree).
Here is my take on this from an article in 2005. (parts it bold have been added here)
Consider the situation the United States found itself in during the last Kondratiev winter (4T). The US had too little domestic demand to fully utilize the productive capacity built up during the Kondratiev Fall (3T) boom. The resulting sustained unemployment had persisted for years and showed no sign of ending despite the New Deal programs. The US only began to lift out of the Depression with the start of the Lend Lease program, which involved the US making and giving away goods to the British during WW II. Later, the US joined the war and started producing much larger quantities of goods and expending them in the war effort. US workers turned out prodigious amounts of goods, all of it financed by massive low-interest debt (courtesy of the US central bank which bought US treasuries as necessary to keep rates low). These goods were then given away (to the war effort). In other words, the American worker and American central bank during WW II played a role much like the one the Chinese worker and central bank is playing today.
The entire operation was financed by vast amounts of debt raised largely from American investors, which produced an enormous amount of economic stimulation (Figure 3), a substantial amount of price inflation, and flat interest rates (thanks to Federal Reserve interventions). This debt was eventually monetized, meaning that American bond investors took major losses as bonds came to be called "certificates of confiscation". Yet the outcome for the nation as a whole was favorable: three decades of post war prosperity. In the present Kondratiev Winter season, the Chinese are playing the same economic role as the Americans did in the last Winter season and can expect that the outcome will be as salutary for them as it was for postwar America.