04-06-2017, 08:16 PM
[quote pid='24648' dateline='1491527567']
Polls of some kind are out for some 23 states as I offer this:
In a true binary race with this level of support, President Trump still gets about 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% top the approval rating and you usually get the share of the vote in the election) -- but he could lose Utah if he gets a strong challenge from a conservative alternative more libertarian in economics and having a lifestyle and business connections closer to LDS values. As in 2016, he cannot assume Utah as given. In a true binary election (which the Presidential race in Utah was not), a Republican needs to win about 65% of the vote in Utah to have a chance to win. I would still project him to get 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% to approval under normal circumstances). President Trump will need Utah to win in 2020, and he will need to win it big.
.
C'mon, Ohio!
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;9&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=2;6*;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;9&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=2;6;9&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=1;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=1;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=2;3;7&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;9&NJ=1;14;9&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=1;20;9&RI=0;4;1&SC=1;9;3&SD=0;3;2&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;4&UT=1;6;3&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
Note the non-standard treatment of Utah. A poll of Utah released today has Donald Trump underwater 47-50; a poll from a week earlier had him up 54-41, which was still weak for a right-wing Republican in Utah.
[/quote]
Polls of some kind are out for some 23 states as I offer this:
In a true binary race with this level of support, President Trump still gets about 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% top the approval rating and you usually get the share of the vote in the election) -- but he could lose Utah if he gets a strong challenge from a conservative alternative more libertarian in economics and having a lifestyle and business connections closer to LDS values. As in 2016, he cannot assume Utah as given. In a true binary election (which the Presidential race in Utah was not), a Republican needs to win about 65% of the vote in Utah to have a chance to win. I would still project him to get 53% of the vote in Utah (add 6% to approval under normal circumstances). President Trump will need Utah to win in 2020, and he will need to win it big.
.
C'mon, Ohio!
Favorability:
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states.
Approval:
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
Note the non-standard treatment of Utah. A poll of Utah released today has Donald Trump underwater 47-50; a poll from a week earlier had him up 54-41, which was still weak for a right-wing Republican in Utah.
[/quote]
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.