Syrian War

[Bob Butler 54]

I'm inclined to think both Cynic and Eric both have simplistic views.  There is a lot of tribal thinking going on in the area.  The Arab Spring movement as originally began is pretty much dead.  Islam has many flavors.  Both Enlightenment and Marxist values are thoroughly discredited in the region, which leaves Islam as the dominant system of morality.  The presence of foreign powers pushing their own agendas complicates things.

My own immediate concern is that Trump will try a similarly simplistic point of view and wade into the quagmire.  Bush 43 got bursts of popularity by killing people.  Trump is starting to flirt with the same effect.  At the same time, he was elected on 'America First' so he might loose some who don't like the 'world's policeman' gig while winning those who think force provides easy answers.

I don't see easy answers.  I'd still ask Powell's Questions, not expecting easy answers.  If one can't clearly break the quagmire, sending more soldiers and munitions into a region just makes the quagmire worse.

The following diagram gives an idea of the complexity, but is spun to push the point that nobody likes ISIS.  While I won't argue that ISIS is unpopular, I don't see them viewed by the locals as the greatest problem or threat to what passes for peace.  I'd be tempted to do a variation that puts the Syrian Government in the center, or shares the center with ISIS.  I have a feeling that the circles could be rearranged so the lines don't cross as much.  Ah, well...

Gut feel, to break the quagmire you have to take out Assad, not ISIS, but there are too many blue arrows going into the 'Syrian Government' circle for this to be likely.