Syrian War

[Eric the Green]

(04-15-2017, 05:57 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I'm inclined to think both Cynic and Eric both have simplistic views.  There is a lot of tribal thinking going on in the area.  The Arab Spring movement as originally began is pretty much dead.  Islam has many flavors.  Both Enlightenment and Marxist values are thoroughly discredited in the region, which leaves Islam as the dominant system of morality.  The presence of foreign powers pushing their own agendas complicates things.

My own immediate concern is that Trump will try a similarly simplistic point of view and wade into the quagmire.  Bush 43 got bursts of popularity by killing people.  Trump is starting to flirt with the same effect.  At the same time, he was elected on 'America First' so he might loose some who don't like the 'world's policeman' gig while winning those who think force provides easy answers.

I don't see easy answers.  I'd still ask Powell's Questions, not expecting easy answers.  If one can't clearly break the quagmire, sending more soldiers and munitions into a region just makes the quagmire worse.

The following diagram gives an idea of the complexity, but is spun to push the point that nobody likes ISIS.  While I won't argue that ISIS is unpopular, I don't see them viewed by the locals as the greatest problem or threat to what passes for peace.  I'd be tempted to do a variation that puts the Syrian Government in the center, or shares the center with ISIS.  I have a feeling that the circles could be rearranged so the lines don't cross as much.  Ah, well...

Gut feel, to break the quagmire you have to take out Assad, not ISIS, but there are too many blue arrows going into the 'Syrian Government' circle for this to be likely.

Bob tends to simplify Eric's views.

The chart is good at showing all the actors and what they're doing, except the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Free Syrian Army are the same, and are not fighting each other. Otherwise, I agree the IS is in the Center, because everybody is against them. But yes Assad is the greatest problem in the region rather than the IS. The chart shows that by it having the most (valid) arrows directed to it (7), except the IS (9). No other group has more than 6.

The "supporters and allies" of the IS are the young folks who are recruited by their on-line propaganda and within radical groups.