04-24-2017, 11:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2017, 12:07 PM by Eric the Green.)
Macron 23.9 centrist (probably center-left by our standards)
LePen 21.4 right-wing nationalist
Fillon 19.9 center-right
Melanchon 19.6 left wing
Hamon 6.3 socialist
Dupont-Aignan, 4.7 gaullist/sovereignist
Macron has been described by some observers as a social liberal[22][23][24][25][26] and by others as a social democrat.[27][28][29] During his time in the French Socialist Party, he supported the party's right wing,[30] whose political stance has been associated with "third way" policies advanced by Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and Gerhard Schröder, and whose leading spokesman has been former prime minister Manuel Valls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron
We're now heading up to the second round. Most of the polls I've seen suggest Macron has a comfortable lead. Is there any reason to doubt the second-round polls?
No. I've seen how they do it, it's almost mathematical. They ask people how they voted in the first round. They adjust for that and only for that and then they run their estimation process. This usually gives an exact — absolutely exact! — estimate. They've never missed the second-round vote, despite what Nate Silver may say. In fact, they usually have it perfectly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worl...73f48514f8
So, coming apart? In this respect, at least, maybe not so much.
LePen 21.4 right-wing nationalist
Fillon 19.9 center-right
Melanchon 19.6 left wing
Hamon 6.3 socialist
Dupont-Aignan, 4.7 gaullist/sovereignist
Macron has been described by some observers as a social liberal[22][23][24][25][26] and by others as a social democrat.[27][28][29] During his time in the French Socialist Party, he supported the party's right wing,[30] whose political stance has been associated with "third way" policies advanced by Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and Gerhard Schröder, and whose leading spokesman has been former prime minister Manuel Valls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron
We're now heading up to the second round. Most of the polls I've seen suggest Macron has a comfortable lead. Is there any reason to doubt the second-round polls?
No. I've seen how they do it, it's almost mathematical. They ask people how they voted in the first round. They adjust for that and only for that and then they run their estimation process. This usually gives an exact — absolutely exact! — estimate. They've never missed the second-round vote, despite what Nate Silver may say. In fact, they usually have it perfectly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worl...73f48514f8
So, coming apart? In this respect, at least, maybe not so much.