Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

Updates involving Florida and South Carolina:

South Carolina, for which I have seen no polls for nearly a year:

Quote:South Carolina: Winthrop University, Feb 17-25

Approve 42  (no change from last Spring)
Disapprove 50 (+3)

Approval ratings for Governor Henry McMaster ® 47-25
Senator Lindsey Graham ® 38-48
Senator Tim Scott ® 53-28
Congress of the United States (majority R in both Houses)

11-78 overall; 7-88 Democrats, 20-69 Republicans

This is consistent with the most recent polls showing support of President Trump in near collapse in the  Deep and Mountain South.


Approval




55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
47% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 46% medium red
under 42% deep red

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark red
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium red
50% or higher but negative pale red
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale blue
40% to 44% medium blue
under 40% deep blue


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections. 

...at this point (as I just got a poll of South Carolina) I could see President Trump losing almost as many 'former secessionist' states in a re-election bid as Jimmy Carter did. Sure, I make this conjecture two and a half years before the 2020 election, and Donald Trump could hardly be more different from Jimmy Carter. Carter won all but one former Confederate state in 1976 (the exception was Virginia), and it is mere coincidence that Donald Trump won all but one former Confederate state in 2016 (the exception again is Virginia). In 1980 Jimmy Carter lost every former Confederate state except Georgia, his home state. At this point I see a possibility of Donald Trump losing almost as badly in the South. Southerners do not like obnoxious d@mnyankees, and Donald Trump is about as obnoxious a d@mnyankee as there is. I lived for seventeen years in Texas and nearly two in Arkansas, so I know about what I speak. They just didn't get to see him often enough to make that judgment until he got elected.

In the three states (New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) in which he is best known he got some of his worst results in the Presidential election. But it is enough to say that the 42% approval in Florida and the 40% approval in Michigan indicate that he will lose in his re-election bid unless he has some miracles working for him between now and November 2020.

Cook PVI against which I make comparisons to the baseline of a 50-50 election for the Presidency, a reasonable assumption since 2000:
 
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more



Cook PVI assumes a 50-50 Presidential election, reasonable since 2000 because except for the 2008 Presidential election all such exception, those five all were basically even for almost the entire electoral season. One can use polling to predict whether the next Presidential election will be a 50-50 proposition, and if not, how far the likely reality diverges from that assumption.

For DC (not measured) and Congressional districts that vote independently of states, I have common sense for Dee Cee and the congressional votes for those districts.

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

............

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):



Orange implies that President Trump projects to do better than Cook PVI based on 100-DIS. In Minnesota I have a 49-47 poll with which to work, and people in that thread tell me that the pollster who got those results is suspect. So the President is doing 2% better in California in accordance with 100-DIS than Cook PVI suggests. Not significant, obviously, because that is the difference between losing the Golden State 60-40 instead of 62-38.

This is likely the last that you will see of my  analysis of polling based on deviation from Cook PVI. I think we can be assured that President Trump is doing worse, in general in  polling, than something consistent with a 50-50 split of the popular vote.

Oh well, I have at least made this analysis more concise. With South Carolina offering a poll, I now have every state in the former Confederacy. My interpretation of data from the South is that President Trump is beginning to seem like an obnoxious d@mnyankee.

The sea of green suggests at this time that Donald Trump will face an electorate that will split against him. Green, and even very dark shades of green, do not indicate that the President will lose any particular state. But look at all states that President Trump won by 10% or less, and except for Pennsylvania  (no recent polling) and Texas -- the measure of 100-disapproval suggests that he will lose. Disapproval is stickier than approval. A hint: Obama won only one state in which his disapproval polling ever went above 50% (he got to 51% in Ohio, even if such is 'just barely') before the 2012, and he barely won Ohio. Obama was a far better campaigner than Trump and has been far less erratic in his behavior. Based on this data I predict that even a mediocre Democratic nominee wins at least a near-landslide against Donald Trump. To be sure, the optimal predictor is a person-to-person match, but because about a dozen Democrats have a chance of being the 2020 nominee for President such is unavailable.