Looking at the generations from the Fourth Turning perspective

[David Horn]

(06-06-2018, 05:57 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-06-2018, 10:07 AM)David Horn Wrote: SS and MC are actually in pretty good shape.  No commercial alternative is better, and, in any case, no upgrade to either is even possible.  What should tell the tale is the willingness of Boomers to be taxed for the general welfare.  Obviously, the Trumpists are adamantly opposed, but the jury is still out on the rest of us.  We've reached a near terminal point in wealth disparity that is still compatible with Western-style democracy.  Obviously, most of the 1% will fight to keep theirs, but the next tier are the ones who will suffer some loss of prestige and comfort.  Let's see if they will accept the loss graciously, though it may be a bit of a stretch to expect them to give it up willingly.

 This is the latest news I recall:

 https://www.ohio.com/akron/news/nation/t...-worsening

Medicare, Social Security finances worsening, federal report warns

By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar and Andrew Taylor
Associated Press

WASHINGTON: Medicare will run out of money sooner than expected, and Social Security’s financial problems can’t be ignored either, the government said Tuesday in a sobering checkup on programs vital to the middle class.

The report from program trustees says Medicare will become insolvent in 2026 — three years earlier than previously forecast. Its giant trust fund for inpatient care won’t be able to fully cover projected medical bills starting at that point.

The report says Social Security will become insolvent in 2034 — no change from the projection last year.

The warning serves as a reminder of major issues left to languish while Washington plunges deeper into partisan strife. Because of the deterioration in Medicare’s finances, officials said the Trump administration will be required by law to send Congress a plan next year to address the problems, after the president’s budget is submitted.

Medicare insolvency is mostly an issue of simple demographics: too many seniors being added to the rolls.  Though Trump may decide that it's worth arguing for a means test to stay on the program, I can't see that happening.  AARP and seniors in general, are too big a political force to tangle with.  Assume that an adjustment to the funding formula will be offered, and sooner rather than later.  2026 is not that far away, but the amount of offset required is not that large, at least for now.

Social Security is an even easier fix, though not in the era of Trump.  Removing the earnings cap will fix this without any additional taxation needed.

None of this is rocket science … or even something new.  The easy fixes were stonewalled by the GOP while Obama was in office, so now they own both problems 100%.  They will be fixed quietly, so the base doesn't get too aroused.