4T Crisis = Climate Change

[Eric the Green]

(09-03-2018, 06:22 PM)igranderojo Wrote: Assumptions:
America's 4T started about 2008 and will probably last until 2028.
The current crisis in 2018 appears to be the corrupt Trump administration, Trumps associates pleading guilty or on trial, and the investigation into the 2016 election hacking supported by Russia.

A non-profit, "The Climate Mobilization" ( https://www.theclimatemobilization.org ) is calling for a mobilization of America like the 1940s.  Maybe Climate Change is part of the 4T crisis era that will mobilize society to change.
Maybe Climate Change results in an economic change like what happened to USA during 1940s.
Maybe Climate Change results in democratic values, the end of culture wars and unifying America against a common enemy.

The current Dems vs Reps, Trump vs Mueller, seems so small compared to a global crisis like climate change.


50% of Russian government revenues come from fossil fuels.
What crisis happens if the Russian government collapses when Europe and Asia suddenly stop buying fossil fuels?

We need to start dealing with climate change in earnest in the 2020s, once we get a government back-- at least partially. We'll have to get any reforms made in this era past the Supreme Court, or go around it. And be clear about this: the climate crisis is not a crisis of ecology and weather, it is a political crisis of denialism perpetrated by the vested interests in the status quo of fossil fuels and government inaction. That means the Dems have to DEFEAT the Reps and kick them out of any power for good. Dems vs. Reps/Trumps/neo-fascism is not a distraction or a small version of the Crisis. It IS the Crisis, and will have very dire global impact if not dealt with in this 4T. Millennials will need to vote in midterms, and mobilize politically, in order to accomplish and sustain this effort. Civil war and polarization cannot be minimized possibilities in a fourth turning centered on domestic concerns, just like the one in circa 1850-1865. We will have to face it and take sides, and defeat the enemy. Again, that's the nature of 4Ts. It's too late just to wish our polarization away, or hope that it will go away if more Boomers die off. Most Xers and many if not most millennials are already committed to one side or the other.

Make no mistake, this is our new 4T mood. And it's not just about one issue, such as guns or climate change, but as broad as Matt Post says in his first couple of sentences here about why we "gather" here. And further on, "our nation's politics are sick with soullessness, but make no mistake, we are the cure. Is there a will to bring morality to this country's politics? If we sustain our efforts, who can stop us?"





The severe weather and flooding will get severe enough, probably, so that we'll see it as a crisis in the 2020s. The crisis won't go away after the 4T. But it's only in a 4T that society can mobilize around an issue and make institutional changes to deal with it. I agree, other changes will go along with it. Gun control, economic and social equity, and democratic reforms will be made. Since violent war is very likely in a 4T, violent rebels against gun control and taxes (represented here by Classic Xer, and in society by the Trumpists) will have to be defeated, as will the Supreme Court (packing it may be needed). It's likely that terrorists from abroad or Russian aggression will still catalyze more war abroad as well before this 4T is over. I expect any violent enemies along these lines will be defeated rather quickly.

That said, society can make some changes in a 2T as well, and this time, the green revolution cycle that began near the start of the previous 2T, will climax in the next one. So therefore, a whole lot will be done in the late 2040s as well. The changes will likely be thorough enough and innovative enough then so that the climate change crisis due in circa 2100 will be mitigated as much as is possible. 

Another revolution cycle WILL begin around 2100. But what it will be about, or whether it will just be a cultural shift (as for example the Renaissance to the Baroque in circa 1600) is yet to be determined. Such a minimal 4T might be a possibility by that time, if our (formerly-called-western) civilization cycle has developed well enough by then, and the reactionaries have been put to bed. Obviously, I wouldn't count on it. 

Obviously too, much more revolution is needed in many other countries, such as those in the Middle East, the CIS and Far East Asia, and so the Earth will shake with political upheaval in the late 2040s and around 2100, and to some extent in the period around 2070 as well. I would expect, therefore, that the double rhythm will apply again, and the next American 4T around 2100 will be foreign centered. It could develop into a real world crusade early in the 22nd century.