10-07-2018, 10:05 AM
Another PDF of a national poll. Morning Consult. Morning Consult has typically gotten results more favorable to Donald Trump...
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/up..._v1_HS.pdf
Right track/wrong track
Registered voters: 42% right track, 58% wrong track.
Trump supporters think that America is on the right track; others think that it is on the wrong track.
Overall approval of Trump among registered voters: 42-51
liberal 18-74
moderate 31-67
conservative 77-21
college degree 38-60
graduate degree 38-60
(Trump said that he loves low-information voters; he needs them!)
income under 50K 38-56
income 50K-100K 47-51
income 100K+ 47-51
(income under 50K is heavily minority)
Protestant 60-38
Catholic 43-55
other Christian 25-69
Jewish 25-74
Evangelical 59-38
non-Christian 25-69
(I find it hard to believe that Trump is doing so badly among Eastern Orthodox Christians. Must be more Ukrainian-Americans than I thought. Russian-Americans probably don't like the President's buddy-buddy relationship with Putin. Or could it be Mormons? They are fussy about freedom of religion. Protestants on the whole are rather conservative unless members of minority groups).
urban 31-64
suburban 39-56
rural 55-41
(weak for Republicans by historical standards in rural America, extremely weak for Republicans by historical standards in Suburbia -- it could be that Suburbia is losing its original semi-rural character and developing urban characteristics)
Clinton 16 6-91
Trump 16 88-10
others 16 20-72
did not vote 16 35-53
(It looks as if Trump has gained few supporters from those who voted for Clinton, Johnson, Stein, McMullen, etc. ... more people voted against than for Trump in 2016).
voted in 2014 43-54
non-vote 14 37-52
(A 2014-style electorate which gave the Republicans the Senate in 2014 disapproves of Trump!)
Obama 12 17-80
Romney 12 88-18
others 12 52-41
(a wash, except for the small number of voters for mostly-Right third parties. Obama won decisively, of course, so Obama-to-Trump and Romney-anti-Trump won't be much of a difference).
Northeast 41-56
Midwest 38-56
South 47-51
West 39-56
(So much for the chance of Trump to hold onto the Rust Belt or Pennsylvania!)
male 44-52
female 40-55
(Real men hate sexual or domestic violence against women!)
18-29 29-61
30-44 40-53
45-54 45-51
55-64 42-55
65+ 51-49
(Trump has an edge among the elderly -- barely. Otherwise he fails with all age groups).
Generation Z (18-21) 29-61
Millennial (22-37) 36-55
X (38-53) 42-53
Boom (54-72) 47-52
(Closer than usual to the definitions used by Howe and Strauss, which I will be showing in a Forum related to their theory)
Some college: 45-53
Bachelor's degree: 38-60
Post-graduate degree: 38-60
(is it any wonder that Donald Trump said "I love low-information voters"? He needs them!)
Income under 50K 38-56
Income 50K-100K 47-50
Income 100K or more 44-52
(Income seems to be a weak correlation to voting; until 2008 low income and Democratic voting heavily correlated; in 2008 income had a negative correlation with Democratic voting, and in 2012 it was practically neutral. Low income heavily reflects either membership in a minority group or rural residence).
Ethnicity
white 48-48
black 13-83
Latino 29-67
other 28-61
(Trump breaks even among whites in approval, and if approval and disapproval correlate strictly to voting, then Trump could not win even the "whitest" states. For example, if Trump should break even in Montana and South Dakota among whites, then the largest minority in those states, First Peoples, would be enough to decide an election against him).
More is included (302 pages altogether) and much of it relates to preferences in Congress and how people vote based on their priorities.
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/up..._v1_HS.pdf
Right track/wrong track
Registered voters: 42% right track, 58% wrong track.
Trump supporters think that America is on the right track; others think that it is on the wrong track.
Overall approval of Trump among registered voters: 42-51
liberal 18-74
moderate 31-67
conservative 77-21
college degree 38-60
graduate degree 38-60
(Trump said that he loves low-information voters; he needs them!)
income under 50K 38-56
income 50K-100K 47-51
income 100K+ 47-51
(income under 50K is heavily minority)
Protestant 60-38
Catholic 43-55
other Christian 25-69
Jewish 25-74
Evangelical 59-38
non-Christian 25-69
(I find it hard to believe that Trump is doing so badly among Eastern Orthodox Christians. Must be more Ukrainian-Americans than I thought. Russian-Americans probably don't like the President's buddy-buddy relationship with Putin. Or could it be Mormons? They are fussy about freedom of religion. Protestants on the whole are rather conservative unless members of minority groups).
urban 31-64
suburban 39-56
rural 55-41
(weak for Republicans by historical standards in rural America, extremely weak for Republicans by historical standards in Suburbia -- it could be that Suburbia is losing its original semi-rural character and developing urban characteristics)
Clinton 16 6-91
Trump 16 88-10
others 16 20-72
did not vote 16 35-53
(It looks as if Trump has gained few supporters from those who voted for Clinton, Johnson, Stein, McMullen, etc. ... more people voted against than for Trump in 2016).
voted in 2014 43-54
non-vote 14 37-52
(A 2014-style electorate which gave the Republicans the Senate in 2014 disapproves of Trump!)
Obama 12 17-80
Romney 12 88-18
others 12 52-41
(a wash, except for the small number of voters for mostly-Right third parties. Obama won decisively, of course, so Obama-to-Trump and Romney-anti-Trump won't be much of a difference).
Northeast 41-56
Midwest 38-56
South 47-51
West 39-56
(So much for the chance of Trump to hold onto the Rust Belt or Pennsylvania!)
male 44-52
female 40-55
(Real men hate sexual or domestic violence against women!)
18-29 29-61
30-44 40-53
45-54 45-51
55-64 42-55
65+ 51-49
(Trump has an edge among the elderly -- barely. Otherwise he fails with all age groups).
Generation Z (18-21) 29-61
Millennial (22-37) 36-55
X (38-53) 42-53
Boom (54-72) 47-52
(Closer than usual to the definitions used by Howe and Strauss, which I will be showing in a Forum related to their theory)
Some college: 45-53
Bachelor's degree: 38-60
Post-graduate degree: 38-60
(is it any wonder that Donald Trump said "I love low-information voters"? He needs them!)
Income under 50K 38-56
Income 50K-100K 47-50
Income 100K or more 44-52
(Income seems to be a weak correlation to voting; until 2008 low income and Democratic voting heavily correlated; in 2008 income had a negative correlation with Democratic voting, and in 2012 it was practically neutral. Low income heavily reflects either membership in a minority group or rural residence).
Ethnicity
white 48-48
black 13-83
Latino 29-67
other 28-61
(Trump breaks even among whites in approval, and if approval and disapproval correlate strictly to voting, then Trump could not win even the "whitest" states. For example, if Trump should break even in Montana and South Dakota among whites, then the largest minority in those states, First Peoples, would be enough to decide an election against him).
More is included (302 pages altogether) and much of it relates to preferences in Congress and how people vote based on their priorities.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.