Homelanders: Mid 90s or Mid 00s?

[pbrower2a]

(10-22-2018, 07:49 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: My take on this is such:
There was a change in culture in 2006/7 (MySpace, iPhone). Those who remember the world before it, are millennials. Those who don't are iPhone generation. Because our first memories start at age 3-4, the appropriate date to begin a new generation is 2003.

More controversially I think the end of generation X should moved to 1985 or so, since the difference with millennials here would be remembering or not the Cold War.

You have something here in that as a political generation, adults born in 1982 through 1984 have not shown a proclivity for winning high political office early.  It may be that X adults are less pro-business than the Lost were, X having less faith in the bureaucratic corporations and an aristocratic economy than the Lost had in the more free-wheeling economy of the time before the New Deal. It could also be that Obama is not another FDR, as he did not change the political system to entrench his ideals.  Someone who does that will be the 'New FDR'. The President who shapes America to commit itself on a new direction in politics does not seem to be Donald Trump, whose approval and disapproval numbers

Quote:Approval



55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval




55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

The map that I use is in the context of most elections in American history, and in general Republicans had blue and Democrats had red until the 1980s.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index....msg6481004..



I do not believe the polling on Kentucky or Louisiana, as such polling suggests aging outliers. My objective in this polling map is to give some indication of how the Presidential election will go, and for that I treat 100-DISapproval as a ceiling for an incumbent seeking re-election. At this point I look at the approval polls, and most of them have him anywhere between 38% and 44%, which suggest that if everything goes right for him between now and the 2020 election he has a slight chance of winning the popular vote. I look at statewide polls of Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin and I can't see him winning any of those states. If I am to project the Presidential election of 2020 now I see Trump losing at least almost as badly as the elder Bush did in 1992.

President Trump is not winning new supporters, and he has badly disappointed many who held their noses and chose Trump over Clinton. His Party could gain seats in the Senate due to some of them being held by incumbent Democrats in states that he won handily, with only two Senate seats being held by Republicans in states that were close in 2016. Chances of a Democrat winning a Senate race in Tennessee or Texas would usually be a pipe dream -- but there was Doug Jones of Alabama.

...In 2020 the prognosis for Republicans holding onto a Senate majority is grim, with an appointed Senator in Arizona probably not running for re-election (appointed incumbents usually lose), and Republicans having to defend Senate seats in Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio where he is highly unpopular.

All bets are off if President Trump imposes a dictatorial regime as did Erdogan in Turkey or Putin in Russia, and this President is capricious enough that he could do so. The political scene also changes dramatically should Donald Trump cease being President, which is more likely in view of his bad health habits and age (death, heart attack, stroke), in which case Mike Pence becomes the relevant figure until at least 2020.