11-08-2018, 05:22 PM
Stemming from Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers" and the idea that smaller cohorts within a larger age group can have outsized control/impact, I applied this to the major generations and think there is something to it (at least for the Boomers and Millenials).
The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking: every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.
I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation. This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound. Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.
For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987. The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.
Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:
1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger
1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean
1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren
Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):
1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro
How is this useful? I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028? Shapiro?
And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.
Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.
The eye-popping fact that led me to this thinking: every American President, except for Obama, since 1992 was born in 1946.
I would define the Control Cohort as the earliest core group within a generation. This group gets outsize control due to the increased advantages they get from entering the market as the last generation is leaving and so more openings are available, and how those benefits over a life compound. Other recurrences of this would be the Robber Barons during the Gilded Age and Steve Jobs / Bill Gates Silicon Valley giants.
For the Boomers this would be 1946-1949. For the Millennials 1984-1987. The first year of the generation seems to have the most clearly dominant actors of any year of the generation.
Boomer evidence-nearly every major political actor of the generation:
1946-Bill Clinton/ George W. Bush/Donald Trump
1947-Hillary Clinton/ Mitt Romney/Dan Quayle/Arnold Schwartzenneger
1948-Al Gore/ Howard Dean
1949-John Boehner/ Elizabeth Warren
Early Millennial Evidence (outside of politics mainly):
1984-Lebron James, Mark Zuckerberg, Ezra Klein, Connor Lamb, Ben Shapiro
How is this useful? I would predict the first Millennial President would be born in 1984 and will likely take office by 2028 so Connor Lamb 2028? Shapiro?
And if a Boomer wins in 2020 this would give Warren the edge.
Let me know what you think and list any others you find that should be included.