Comprehensive Political Cycle Theory

[David Horn]

(03-18-2019, 12:51 PM)jleagans Wrote:

(02-06-2019, 12:14 PM)Hintergrund Wrote: 1968? 1972? 1980? People agree that a new party system started around then, but can't agree on the exact start. Maybe there really is none, it was a gradual thing.

1980 is widely considered the start of the modern political era, in so far as its taught in the AP Gov curriculum as a critical election where significant "realignment" occurred.  There was definite movement toward the R's in the South in the '70's but it was Reagan with "god, guns and gays" that solidified it for a generation.

My economic conservatism prediction isn't holding up well in 2019 but we'll see, that space is still there for a moderate to blow out the Dem primary.

We're due for another realignment, and it won't come from the right.  Most of the changes made since Reagan got elected in 1980 are now fully tested and found wanting.  Let's set his foreign policy aside for now, since that is at least arguable, and concentrate on culture and economics.  

Culture never moved to the right, except among the religious right.  Since that crowd has thoroughly discredited itself supporting Trump and, far too often, white supremacists, they're rapidly losing traction in the broader culture.  That leaves the excesses on the left still needing correction.  Politicians would be wise to tread lightly in that garden, and let culture realign on its own.  We don't need an election framed on social issues that divide rather than unify.

On economics, it's pretty obvious that the Gipper's trickle-down, neo-liberalism has been a failure for everyone not firmly in the top 10%, with the top 1% going gangbusters.  That degree of imbalance can't continue forever, and Trump's posturing won't work for long either.  So, is 2020 another realignment?  It should be!  Unfortunately, our republican system is rigged to favor doing nothing over doing something, so this well overdue realignment still may have to wait.  Check back in a few months.