03-28-2019, 11:52 PM
Trump job performance in Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall):
Excellent 18%
Good 16
Fair 13
Poor 53
https://t.co/ZNlBaBy1Lw
Treating the "fair" category as ambiguous because the word has some favorable connotations (as in "fair weather", "fair play", and "fair dealing", that probably translates charitably to 41-53 in approval.
Even more telling:
Maybe a 41-53 spread that an Electric Green Flaming Polonium poll suggests if I assume that half the "fair" votes are approval is too generous.
To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it, with apology to the Bard:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=0;;4&AZ=1;;2&AR=0;;6&CA=0;;6&CO=0;;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;7&GA=0;;5&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=0;;5&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=0;;6&MA=0;;6&MI=1;;7&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;5&NH=0;;5&NJ=0;;5&NM=0;;5&NY=0;;6&NC=1;;7&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=0;;6&OR=0;;5&PA=1;;7&RI=0;;6&SC=0;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=1;;2&UT=0;;7&VT=0;;6&VA=0;;5&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=1;;7&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
50% or more against Trump, margin 9% or higher
50% or more against Trump, margin 5% to 8%
50% or more against Trump, margin 4% or less
The usual margin of error is 4%, and twice that is not close.
(Nothing really changes. I would still love to see a poll of the Keystone State!)
With this question I have yet to see any state in which people say that they prefer Trump to any imaginable alternative, including some conservative who offers a different agenda and perhaps more probity as well as the Democratic nominee.
Well, we have one. It is not approval and disapproval (although I can guess), but it is "To Trump or not to Trump". Trump's three barest wins of 2016 reject him severely.
.....................
Now I have the sort of poll that I really want to see from Pennsylvania (Trump's second-barest win in 2016) and New Hampshire (Trump's barest loss in 2016). The only mitigation of his trouble in New Hampshire, approval numbers in the 30s and disapproval numbers around 60%, is that New Hampshire has only four electoral votes. But most polling has Trump doing badly in the other states that he most barely lost (Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Nevada) in 2016 with approvals no higher than 40% and disapproval numbers in the 50s or worse.
The last three Presidents got re-elected with five (Clinton -- AZ, CO, FL, GA, and MT), three (Dubya -- IA, NH, and NM), or two (Obama -- IN and NC) states swinging one way or another. In each case the states that swung had been close in the first election, and in all but two (IN, MO for Obama) were still close if the incumbent lost them. Clinton would have still won had he lost five states that he won in 1992; Dubya did not lose one of the two states (FL, OH) that he could not afford to lose; Obama lost the two states that he most barely won in 2008 and had won with less than 50% of the popular vote in 2008, and was in danger only of making things close.
All states that Trump lost, even barely, in 2016 are out of reach according to 2018 and 2019 polling. He won five states with less than 50% of the popular vote (from slightest percentage margins to largest, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida -- the fourth one by only 1.19%, Arizona, and North Carolina, the latter two by 3.50% and 3.66%, respectively). Any one of those states could easily swing against Trump in 2020. If one of two is Florida, then Trump loses. Any three of these states going against Trump loses the election for him.
ARG, New Hampshire:
34% approve, 58% disapprove.
https://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/
The barest loss for Trump in 2016 looks like a double-digit loss in 2020. The map does not change at all for New Hampshire, but keep reading.
Trump is toxic in New Hampshire. Republican Governor Sununu is at 58-22 on approval and disapproval.
OK, so it is only four electoral votes. But we are accustomed to three consecutive Presidents winning re-election with electoral maps similar to those with which they got elected the first time. Two states and NE-02 switched in 2012; three states switched in 2004; five states switched in 1996.
I have yet to see any state going from H. Clinton to Trump or even being close to doing so.
Pennsylvania: Emerson, March 26-28, 359 RV (caution: small sample size)
Approve 41
Disapprove 51
It is extremely difficult for an incumbent pol to win with a disapproval rating more than 51%, which shows in any state in deep red, medium red, or pink with an asterisk.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=1;*;2&AZ=1;*;2&AR=0;;6&CA=1;;7&CO=1;;5&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;5&GA=1;*;2&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;;5&KS=0;;5&KY=2;;7&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;7&MA=1;;7&MI=1;*;2&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=0;;5&NV=1;;5&NH=1;;7&NJ=0;;5&NM=0;;5&NY=1;;7&NC=1;;5&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=0;;6&OR=0;;5&PA=1;;5&RI=0;;6&SC=2;;5&SD=0;;5&TN=0;;5&TX=2;;2&UT=1;;2&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;7&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=1;*;2&WY=0;;6&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=4;1;1&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 91
40-43% 39
under 40% 122
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
28 more states, and 211 electoral votes to go!
Excellent 18%
Good 16
Fair 13
Poor 53
https://t.co/ZNlBaBy1Lw
Treating the "fair" category as ambiguous because the word has some favorable connotations (as in "fair weather", "fair play", and "fair dealing", that probably translates charitably to 41-53 in approval.
Even more telling:
Quote:One in three (36%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change.
Maybe a 41-53 spread that an Electric Green Flaming Polonium poll suggests if I assume that half the "fair" votes are approval is too generous.
To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it, with apology to the Bard:
50% or more against Trump, margin 9% or higher
50% or more against Trump, margin 5% to 8%
50% or more against Trump, margin 4% or less
The usual margin of error is 4%, and twice that is not close.
With this question I have yet to see any state in which people say that they prefer Trump to any imaginable alternative, including some conservative who offers a different agenda and perhaps more probity as well as the Democratic nominee.
Well, we have one. It is not approval and disapproval (although I can guess), but it is "To Trump or not to Trump". Trump's three barest wins of 2016 reject him severely.
.....................
Now I have the sort of poll that I really want to see from Pennsylvania (Trump's second-barest win in 2016) and New Hampshire (Trump's barest loss in 2016). The only mitigation of his trouble in New Hampshire, approval numbers in the 30s and disapproval numbers around 60%, is that New Hampshire has only four electoral votes. But most polling has Trump doing badly in the other states that he most barely lost (Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and Nevada) in 2016 with approvals no higher than 40% and disapproval numbers in the 50s or worse.
The last three Presidents got re-elected with five (Clinton -- AZ, CO, FL, GA, and MT), three (Dubya -- IA, NH, and NM), or two (Obama -- IN and NC) states swinging one way or another. In each case the states that swung had been close in the first election, and in all but two (IN, MO for Obama) were still close if the incumbent lost them. Clinton would have still won had he lost five states that he won in 1992; Dubya did not lose one of the two states (FL, OH) that he could not afford to lose; Obama lost the two states that he most barely won in 2008 and had won with less than 50% of the popular vote in 2008, and was in danger only of making things close.
All states that Trump lost, even barely, in 2016 are out of reach according to 2018 and 2019 polling. He won five states with less than 50% of the popular vote (from slightest percentage margins to largest, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida -- the fourth one by only 1.19%, Arizona, and North Carolina, the latter two by 3.50% and 3.66%, respectively). Any one of those states could easily swing against Trump in 2020. If one of two is Florida, then Trump loses. Any three of these states going against Trump loses the election for him.
ARG, New Hampshire:
34% approve, 58% disapprove.
https://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/
The barest loss for Trump in 2016 looks like a double-digit loss in 2020. The map does not change at all for New Hampshire, but keep reading.
Trump is toxic in New Hampshire. Republican Governor Sununu is at 58-22 on approval and disapproval.
OK, so it is only four electoral votes. But we are accustomed to three consecutive Presidents winning re-election with electoral maps similar to those with which they got elected the first time. Two states and NE-02 switched in 2012; three states switched in 2004; five states switched in 1996.
I have yet to see any state going from H. Clinton to Trump or even being close to doing so.
Pennsylvania: Emerson, March 26-28, 359 RV (caution: small sample size)
Approve 41
Disapprove 51
It is extremely difficult for an incumbent pol to win with a disapproval rating more than 51%, which shows in any state in deep red, medium red, or pink with an asterisk.
With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.
55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 91
40-43% 39
under 40% 122
An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.
No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
28 more states, and 211 electoral votes to go!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.