(04-19-2019, 06:20 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I'd say the youngest Millennials are still only 13; the Artist archetype is a way off from adulthood.
What about Millennials disqualifies them from the Hero archetype? I think they are matching it. They still have time for a political movement; they won't likely get a war to fight in like the GIs had but that is because nuclear weapons have ended mass-scale conflict like the CW/WW era experienced.
I think maybe this Crisis doesn't feel Crisis-y enough but there are signs:
Growing populism/authoritarianism
Culture has become bland/predictable
Extreme factionalism - basically we are in a civil war, just not a shooting war
And the demographic bust, if not economic bust
That's all of it really good insight.
No one is talking about lack of war in that respect. Many keep saying the big one is still coming. I can't see it. Millennials are getting too old to be the boots on ground for something like that. Yes, to me the crisis does not feel crisis-y enough. I'm always holding it to the standards of CW and WWII.. although, the economic aspect of the Turning has def happened with 2008 crash. I look at that compared with 29 crash.. with a decade later to war. Then, "winning" created baby boom.
There is now scary stuff like demanding information be banned so that others will not encounter it. This, instead of the individual avoiding said information themselves, they just want it removed in totality. That always leads to authoritarianism. That's why I'm surprised the current president is not leading this charge with young people in theory. The bland and predictable, YESS. Extreme Factionalism is here for sure. All of this shows Hero is here. I guess the location in bracket remains to be seen.
I keep saying if someone like Buttigieg were to somehow become a president, that would be a "hindsight" showing the exact location in bracket. He's a true Mil and all-new kind of leader (gay, etc, we have never seen this) but for my part, it looks like the current president will probably remain for another 4. In that time, I guess a war could happen, but sending young Artists into that instead of Mills does not fit the model.
Someone said there doesn't have to be a baby boom. But does there not have to be an enormous rift concentrated in one or two things that are "global" in nature? Every 4th Turning has had these. I'm no expert past maybe late 19th century, but this location in the bracket seems to always bring almost total chaos to the largest amount of people. Can it be called a real 4T if not? With nothing to mirror the Civil War or WWII (or U.S. Revolution even), what really is this particular Turning anyway?
ie: this border thing is not what I would call a 4T Crisis. Nothing occurring nationally or globally (except in whispers) seems to me as a thing that represents the magnitude of a true 4T right now. Yes, we have endless infighting and political stalemate - nothing is getting done at all. But that's been for most admins for a long time now. Moving the swamp around with each election, never draining it. Again, nothing tho likend to what I would consider a true "Crisis".
Can anyone explain more about the "skipped Hero" of the CW era? It's one concept I have not really understood enough. The archetype was "skipped" .. from that I interpreted Hero just never manifested and the bracket meant for that simply was Artists and everything began normally after the skip. There was no dramatic bracket "shifting" to allot for the missing archetype ... no extended years or modified lengths. Just, as if it just never happened. I guess I don't understand, especially since this research is based on the model having always 4 continually repeating archetypes and 4 continually repeating Turnings that all sort of fit together.
So, based on that ^^ was a Turning also skipped? Wouldn't the entire model be thrown off if skipped an archetype but Turnings continued as normal?