(04-27-2019, 06:36 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I suspect that, in the long run, historians will use Sept. 11 as the start of the 4T. It is dramatic, it is sharply defined.
In the paleo site there was the Phony Fourth thread. If Sept. 11 was a phony 4th, it was a phony 4th that led into the actual 4th.
What is "phony" in that scenario? Not sure I understand.
I've got better handle on the archetypes than the turnings.. I'd love to learn more, please anyone hold refresher(s)!
So, archetype-wise, isn't it correct.......:
Prophet = 1946(?) - 1962(?) = 16yrs (the authors really nailed this one in terms of defining almost To The Day references as to when the Child Boom began and ended: birth rates rise at end of WWII and end with Kennedy. Numbers don't lie).
Nomad = 1963(?) - 1982(?) = 19yrs (The authors have borne this out anecdotally in the way it began to become negative to have children present in public Contrasted with car signs "Baby On Board" signaling a dramatic shift).
Millennial = 1983(?) - 2005(?) = 22yrs (this one is still in question but looking more firm all the time... Hero's End, so to speak, is hard to identify since Artist (to me) doesn't look too much different from Hero in a lot of ways defined by S&H).
Artist = 2006(?) - 2026?? = 20yrs (still in valid question).
When 4T was written, the predicted brackets were very close to this but they did change over the course of 2 decades later. But not by very much.
Do these brackets suit ppl? It works for you?
So how to we lay down the Turnings over these dates?
If 911 2001 is actual beginning of 4T, then it must be a longer-than-20yr-cycle. I say that because I cannot envision the clouds parting next year and a new beginning falling out of that cloud. Do we need a different president to SIGNAL that? What if the voting time comes and it's a brand new candidate and they win? Would just that winning of someone totally new and different cause us who are watching to say "omg OK this really is the tail end of the 4T".
I think I would ^^. Even if that was the only "change" that happened. Because to me that would mean a change of process has been achieved, the ppl involved will be more open to transformation, etc. However, conversely, if the 2020 presidential election in America fails to elect a different person, it would cause me to gravely question where in the 4T bracket we are at all. Whether it's almost done or still in initial throes. The latter would just suck horribly.
The word "Crisis" is everywhere with so many subjects in the news. 4T is no doubt, just WHEN inside the cycle are we now and how much time is left on that until signs of a 1T.
Gotta say also, there seems to be "cult-like" opinions about the 4T "......ooo we are still waiting on Thanos to drop his bombs and then the 4T can move forward as it' supposed to". Like, they are waiting on that as a strong indicator. But that's not always true. S&H talk about general ideas that Winter is coming........ you cannot avoid it........... it may be short and gentle or hostile and devastating - but it's coming, get ready.
I have to say if such devastation will happen, has it got much more time to manifest? One of the indicators from S&H about the 4T wars "to come" (according to them from the mid 90s):
Decided by Prophets via a form of ideology with enemy
Fought by Heroes who don't question them
Maintained by Nomads (who don't care one way or the other, just want it to be over)
Survived by Artists (sheltered by adults during the Crisis who come out the other side with huge support)
As above, the ARTIST is reaching late teens in age en masse. They have been being born since before the Financial Depression, they do not know a pre-911 America or that before, Americans didn't get molested by Security Forces in airports, etc. Artists are now facing all the blackhead pimples rising in America since the Crisis became. They have been protected thoroughly through the whole thing (for the most part).
So many parts of S&H ideology fit in this scenario..