(04-28-2019, 05:55 AM)TheNomad Wrote: What is "phony" in that scenario? Not sure I understand.
In an August 21, 2000 post* on the Kondratieff wave and its relation with the S&H cycle, I wrote this at the end of the post:
This implies a 51 year K-cycle in the late 19th century and a 61 year K-cycle in the first part of the 20th century. Assuming complete adoption of the Dentian pattern we should see a ~70 year K-cycle and ~70 year saeculum in operation today. This would imply that Kondratiev winter and the Crisis period should be starting now, most probably with a major market peak, which is what the stock cycle model predicted.
The monthly average of the stock market average peaked that month, suggesting that a 4T was to begin shortly. When 911 happened, I saw that as strong support. Many T4Ters were of similar opinion that 911 was the trigger. A number of us, including Brian Rush were of the opinion that (1) there was no civil war anomaly, so the 1822-1984 period which spanned 9 turnings, also spanned 9 generations, giving an average length of 18 years for a generation/turning. With this theory the projected date for the 4T would be the average of 1984+18 = 2002 and 1964+36 = 2000 and 1946+54 = 2000 and 1929+72 =2001 which works out to 2001, and there was 911, right on time.
Better still there were two more clear-cut indicators, which when they happened would confirm the 4T start. One was as monetary indicator that had last gone off in 1929, and which I expected we would see very likely in 2002. It didn't happen then, but rather in 2009. The other indicator would be the beginning of a period of political dominance one of the other parties. Either Republican rule would be affirmed by Republican victories in 2004 and 2008, or they would be rejected by a 2004 loss. Neither happened.
Finally there was the 3T-type response to 911. The president called the people who attacked us "folks" and told us to go shopping. In Generations S&H actually talked about a terrorist attack in 2000 and how a 3T-type response would result in the failure to form a Civic Generation.There were also the many known problems that had been put off throughout the 3T that needed to be addressed such as climate change and lack of wage growth for decades that continued to be ignored. It looked more and more like we were still in a 3T.
When the financial crisis happened we had a new trigger. This one was confirmed by the monetary indicator in 2009, just like the 911 candidate had been forecasted by the long-term stock market peak (both the stock market and the monetary indicator had occurred in 1929, but this time they were spaced 8 years apart). But there was still the political indicator, which would be confirmed by a Democratic victory in 2016. That did not happen.
As before, no substantial action against the financial crisis was taken, as indicated by how the recession worsened from 2008 to 2009-2010 and Democrats were shellacked in 2010 (in contrast the economy began growing right after FDR was inaugurated and Democrats won seats in 1934). Nor was any action taken to address climate change or our economic problems. In 2016 a Republican was elected president who basically rejected most of everything the Bush administration had tried to push. It is pretty clear that Trump is trying to take the Republicans in a very different direction that what the Bush-led party stood for. In other works Trump is not a continuation of a trend begun in 2001, but starting a new one in 2016.
*The post was at the original T4T site (which can still be found here) It was in The Future category and The Kondratieff Wave And The Fourth Turning thread.