skipped an archetype like time before last?

[Eric the Green]

(05-13-2019, 10:18 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-12-2019, 10:19 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(05-12-2019, 06:32 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: PBR, there is no such thing as a failed crisis.  Every 4T in history has been resolved at some point.  Often through a war or civil war.  Sometimes not.  Often with economic calamity, but sometimes not.  War and economic hardship do not in themselves indicate one is in a 4T.  Indeed in the so-called American High of the 1950s there was not one, not two, but four recessions.  There was also a very bloody war--though most people seem to have forgotten about it these days.

The point of a 4T is that it ends the saeculum.  This is an inevitability.  I believe that the current 4T will fizzle out setting the stage for the Mega Crisis which is a whole saeculum long and will end approximately in 2100.

How bad is a mega crisis?

First, you have to agree that such even exists, which is dicey at best.  To accept the idea of a Mega-Crisis, you have to accept the idea of the Mega-Saeculum.  The idea is attractive, since it looks like a social science equivalent of fractals: each level made of larger versions of the same "shape" as the level below it.  Thus, a mega-saeculum consist of four standard saecula, each having an equivalent nature to one of the turnings within that saeculum.  Taken to extreme, Turnings can then be deconstructed into roughly 5-year segments, and so on, until the idea becomes totally ridiculous.

The mega crisis is a tempting idea. There are two problems with it. First, people who describe this megacycle attribute the millennial saeculum we have been in since 1946 to the wrong mega turning. They date the mega-saeculum to the American Revolution, which results in incorrect correlations. The idea just becomes a basis for saying we are on the verge of a mega crisis, and that the mill-saec is a mega unravelling. That is only due to today's Xers and maybe millennials having experienced a 24-year unravelling, and which to some extent is continuing, and they can't see or remember anything else in their lives. It is just a cynical view, which is typical of Xers. But the correlations do not fit, even a little bit. The millsaec is not a mega unravelling. It was the greatest high ever for a nation. We are just enjoying the end of a stable era beyond any stability that has ever been experienced by any nation, and we are complacent and comfortable. We already had the mega crisis in the world wars and depression. You can't get any more mega-crisis than that. The great power saeculum was anything except a mega-awakening; it was the least spiritual and least woke saeculum ever. No, our saeculum was and is a mega-high, and Xers like the hopelessly-deceived-about-everything kinser don't see it.

Second, such a mega-cycle conflicts with the 500-year cycle of civilization, recognized by many historians. If the mega-cycle exists, it gells with that cycle, which more-or-less contains 6 saecula of the modern length, and 5 of the ancient and medieval length.