(05-17-2019, 02:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: If Trump fits the "disjunctive" pattern of 1932 and 1980, it could happen. But it's not likely because the country is so polarized today, with people voting on the basis of entrenched ideology and prejudices. kinser exemplifies the ignorance and stubbornness with which Trump's base sticks with him no matter what. How the leader actually rules, and what effect it has on the country, are irrelevant to today's "reds" (opposite color used to your maps). You keep forgetting that Trump cannot be underestimated. Not only are actual policies and effects of his rule irrelevant to his sheepish, hypnotized red-state followers, but in general the most charismatic and talented speaker wins the election.
I can see no way now in which President Trump gets fewer than 100 electoral votes. There are states in which people would excuse a catastrophic war and a depression so long as they get an abortion ban and the abolition of Obamacare.
I have the colors inverted because the site from which I take those maps uses the historical red - Democrats (because they are more pro-labor and closer to being socialist) and Republicans are blue (for being more elitist, serving 'blue-blood' interests). Republicans deserve red for being closer to totalitarian ideology.
Quote:Trump was expected to lose in 2016, and won despite making more gaffes and lies than any candidate in history by far, and despite having zero qualifications and a well-known record as a crook and scam artist. He's a talented celebrity incumbent demagogue with a personality that connects well with a crowd and a TV audience. That's going to be hard for either one of the two old geezers to beat, especially in our system rigged to benefit Republicans, and no other candidates so far announced have any chance against Trump at all. We have no FDR or Reagan in the wings this time. Keep those "objective facts" in mind, Mr. Brower, as you make your astute reports and reflections on history and the polls.
And that must remain in our minds -- he won despite being the scummiest and least-qualified person to ever be President. Lightning can strike multiple times in the same place. Trump has the most important people in America -- his class -- behind him. We obviously do not have an FDR on the Democratic side, and the last Democrat to show anything like Reagan's political skills (Barack Obama) is no longer available to be President. Never mind that he has no political acumen, and that he is a horrible rogue. He won in 2016, and he will try to win much the same way, by debasing the political process so that people feel soiled if they participate.. unless they are his supporters.
The United States of America remains a plutocracy, and to describe our plutocrats as the sorts who believe that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness are rightly out of reach of people other than themselves is little exaggeration. The landlord, the loan-shark, and the lobbyist are the heroes of our political order, at least for now -- and those people do not yield anything without plotting to make things go their way again in the event that they should lose an election.
Yes, Trump approval remains hideous, and in normal times it is now far from adequate for winning re-election. This time, a Crisis Era, is anything but normal.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.