06-25-2019, 08:27 AM
People are still becoming fully adult in many respects (such as cultural identity and political tendencies) earlier than they used to. Maybe a comparatively few eighteen-year-olds vote, but it is arguable that more 25-years-olds are voting than used to be the case.
It is possible that with increasing lifespans and shorter lengths of generations than was the case in the 18th century and earlier that we have more times in which we have four active adult generations at once. The people who married and had children earlier, basically peasants, had no influence upon economics or culture and generally have little role in history in medieval and early-modern times. The aristocratic elites who owned everything and wielded all the power usually had to wait until age 30 or so to even start to get a transition to influence upon society.
The generational cycle might be muted in its potential ferocity. It is hard to imagine a Crisis as horrific as the last one because there will be active Silent adults in influence as late as 2030 by which time a younger Adaptive generation will start influencing at the least the mass culture of the time. Howe and Strauss tell us that what defines most eras is not so much the domination of one generational type but instead the absence of one. Thus a High is so culturally-stale because the last adult Idealist generation that might offer some controversy is no longer around; an Awakening is so irreverent toward needful traditions (dammit, at least look out for the children!) because the last adult Reactive generation is out to pasture or at least rushed to the 'retirement home'; an Unraveling is so destructive to institutions because a Civic (or Civic-like, as was the case of the Gilded going into the 1920s) that might know how to organize things or keep things organized is in retirement; and finally a Crisis is potentially so ferocious because Adaptive adults who might suggest gentleness instead of cruelty and might seek to mitigate the call to 'loose the fateful lightning of His terrible, swift sword' are then irrelevant.
It's probably for the better, because the nuclear genie is out of the lamp and cannot be put back into it.
It is possible that with increasing lifespans and shorter lengths of generations than was the case in the 18th century and earlier that we have more times in which we have four active adult generations at once. The people who married and had children earlier, basically peasants, had no influence upon economics or culture and generally have little role in history in medieval and early-modern times. The aristocratic elites who owned everything and wielded all the power usually had to wait until age 30 or so to even start to get a transition to influence upon society.
The generational cycle might be muted in its potential ferocity. It is hard to imagine a Crisis as horrific as the last one because there will be active Silent adults in influence as late as 2030 by which time a younger Adaptive generation will start influencing at the least the mass culture of the time. Howe and Strauss tell us that what defines most eras is not so much the domination of one generational type but instead the absence of one. Thus a High is so culturally-stale because the last adult Idealist generation that might offer some controversy is no longer around; an Awakening is so irreverent toward needful traditions (dammit, at least look out for the children!) because the last adult Reactive generation is out to pasture or at least rushed to the 'retirement home'; an Unraveling is so destructive to institutions because a Civic (or Civic-like, as was the case of the Gilded going into the 1920s) that might know how to organize things or keep things organized is in retirement; and finally a Crisis is potentially so ferocious because Adaptive adults who might suggest gentleness instead of cruelty and might seek to mitigate the call to 'loose the fateful lightning of His terrible, swift sword' are then irrelevant.
It's probably for the better, because the nuclear genie is out of the lamp and cannot be put back into it.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.