Breaking the idea that saeculums are ~85 years

[Eric the Green]

(06-28-2019, 01:26 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: 2018 is too early for Prophets, since the necessary condition is not remembering the Crisis. I doubt any English-speaking nation will be over the crisis by 2022.

Right. I doubt any nation will be over the crisis until 2028. For goodness sake, we've been just watching the waves get higher. Nothing has crashed yet. The 2020s will see the real thing. Fasten your seat belts!

For example, wtf are we going to do if Americans are foolish enough to re-elect Drumpface? That could spark a revolution. Or if he is voted out but refuses to leave. Or impeached and convicted and that riles up his crazies. Or if a new liberal regime enacts gun control.....

Quote:My breakdown of the postwar saeculum is as follows:
1945 - ca 1965 Atomic Shock (High)
1965 - 1980 Countercultural Awakening
1980 - 2006 Neoliberalism (Unravelling)
2006 - 202? Digital Transformation (Crisis)
Neoconservatism ended in 2006 with the Iraqi civil war, neoliberalism in 2008 with the recession. It definitely felt like change of an era.

S&H cut off the Awakening in Generations in 1980, but changed it to 1984 in T4T, which makes much more sense. The first 80s years were in a rather wasted holding pattern; the Awakening had lost much of its steam, but still continued (the anti-nuc movement, for example). Only when the so-called boom began in 1983 and Reagan pronouned it "morning in America" and foolish Americans believed him, did the neo-liberal 3T begin.

The PBS documentary on 1964 very much sealed the deal that S&H were right to choose that year as the start of the Awakening. Richard Viguery and others were quoted on it as saying 1964 was a door we went through, and could not go back. Would we take up the challenge and go through the door? Yes, we would!
https://youtu.be/aOkwpqlOQgo?t=6479





The 2008 recession was correctly identified by Mr. Howe as the start of the 4T. The Iraq War was just a 3T mess from the start.

Quote:Going by the idea that people become adults at 20, we can break down the generations as:
1925 - ca 1944 Silent
1945 - 1960 Boomer
1961 - 1985 Xer (including Xennials)
1986 - 200? Millennial (including older members of so-called gen Z)
200? - 202? gen Alpha (including younger members of so-called gen Z)

I did use 1984 as the start of Millennials or "Gen Y" myself; most people say 1980 to 1982. Xennials are a cusp group; no reason to include all of them in Gen X. Also, it's better to start Boomers a few years before the 1T started. That's the usual practice with the start of generations.

Quote:The current gen Z identity won't survive the younger members of this cohort coming of age during the beginning of the new saeculum. Kids born in 2007 will learn they have more in common with their younger cousins born in 2013 than with someone born in 2002.

Nicely said.

Quote:As long as people come of age at about 20, the turnings won't last longer even if people routinely live to be 150. It's more probable the future people will experience two saeculums. Imagine the missionaries still being around!

Good point.