11-12-2019, 05:00 PM
(11-12-2019, 04:16 AM)Hintergrund Wrote:(11-11-2019, 11:43 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: The Islamic State wasn't a surprise to me or to anyone else who followed the geopolitics of the area.
An all out attack by Iran on Saudi Arabia could get nasty, but nowhere near WWII - again, unless nukes are involved.
Iran is working on them. And I don't even think they're the worst guys in the area.
But if you have better sources: You don't happen to have saved online links from that time which actually predicted what'd happen?
I haven't saved them but I can find some. Keeping in mind the US didn't take the Islamic State seriously until 2014,
from 2012:
Quote:But while neither the domestic opponents of the Syrian regime nor the international stakeholders have an interest in seeing Syria collapse into sectarian conflict, jihadists want just that. As in Iraq, we could see bombings against Alawites and other non-Sunni groups, including Iranian and Hezbollah targets. This could be extended to attacks in Lebanon in an attempt to stoke a regional sectarian conflict.https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/j...ties-syria
The jihadists could well succeed in sparking a regional sectarian conflict that would involve multiple state and non-state actors and would see Iran and Saudi Arabia locked in an intense proxy war. Western or Israeli involvement in the conflict would please the jihadists even more.
From 2013:
Quote:Al Qaeda in Iraq [which later renamed itself to the Islamic State] is trying to use the Syrian conflict to reignite sectarian warfare in Iraq and thereby create an uninterrupted operating space stretching from Iraq to Lebanon. Since mid-May alone, more than 300 people have been killed and hundreds more wounded in bombings by suspected jihadists across Iraq that have largely targeted the country's Shiite population. The jihadists sense a historic opportunity to acquire their largest and most significant area of operation since the movement was based in Afghanistan before the 2001 U.S. invasion.https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/j...a-and-iraq
also:
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/j...ties-syria
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/i...-announced
and many others.