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2020 Predictions
#3
From a 2008 post (sometime around the New Hampshire primary, IIRC):
 
jamesdglick;224235 Wrote:This isn't specifically S&H generational theory, but it was inspired by the presidential list in the Appendix of "Generations":

A list of the ages of the 1st term, non-incumbent winners on election day since 1932 (DOB; Election Day):

Reagan 69 yrs, 8 mos, 29 days (b. 6 FEB 1911) (4 NOV 1980)
Bush 64 yrs, 4 mos, 21 days (b. 12 JUN 1924) (2 NOV 1988)
Ike 62 yrs, 0 mos, 21 days (b. 14 OCT 1890) (4 NOV 1952)
Nixon 55 yrs, 9 mos, 27 days (b. 9 JAN 1913) (5 NOV 1968)
Bush 54 yrs, 3 mos, 29 days (b. 6 JUL 1946) (4 NOV 2000)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carter 52 yrs, 1 mo, 1 day (b. 1 OCT 1924) (2 NOV 1976)
FDR 50 yrs, 9 mos, 1 day (b. 30 JAN 1882) (1 NOV 1932)
Clinton 46 yrs, 2 mos, 15 days (b. 19 AUG 1946) (3 NOV 1992)
JFK 43 yrs, 6 mos, 3 days (b. 29 MAY 1917) (1 NOV 1960)

Truman, LBJ, and Ford aren't included, since their "1st term" came upon taking office to complete their POTUS's term; when they ran for president, they were already incumbents (and Ford lost anyway).

The "R's" are all of the old guys, the "D's" are all of the young guys...
 
To compare this, we have the non-imcumbent losers (Ds):

(Age on Election day) (DOB) (Election Day)
Kerry 60 yrs,10 mos, 26 days (b. 11 DEC 1943)(6 NOV 2004)
Humphrey 57 yrs, 5 mos, 9 days (b. 27 MAY 1911)(5 NOV 1968)
Stevenson 56 yrs, 9mos, 0 days (b. 5 FEB 1900)(5 NOV 1956)
Dukakis 54 yrs,11 mos, 29 days (b. 3 NOV 1933)(2 NOV 1988)
Stevenson 52 yrs, 8 mos, 30 days (b. 5 FEB 1900)(4 NOV 1952)
Gore 52 yrs, 7 mos, 4 days (b. 31 MAR 1948)(4 NOV 2000)
McGovern 50 yrs, 3 mos, 18 days (b. 19 JUL 1922)(6 NOV 1972)

Kerry, Humphrey, and Stevenson (1956 run) were definitely "too old", Stevenson (1952) & Dukakis were possibly "too old".

And...we have the non-imcumbent losers (Rs):

(Age on Election day) (DOB) (Election Day)
Dole 73 yrs, 3 mos, 13 days (b. 22 JUL 1923)(4 NOV 1996)
Goldwater 55 yrs, 10 mos, 0 days (b. 2 JAN 1909)(2 NOV 1964)
Landon 49 yrs, 1 mo, 24 days (b. 9 SEP 1887)(2 NOV 1936)
Wilkie 48 yrs, 8 mos, 17 days (b.18 FEB 1892)(4 NOV 1940)
Nixon 47 yrs, 9 mos, 30 days (b. 9 JAN 1913)(8 NOV 1960)
Dewey 46 yrs, 7 mos, 15 days (b. 24 MAR 1902)(8 NOV 1948)
Dewey 42 yrs, 7 mos, 13 days (b. 24 MAR 1902)(6 NOV 1944)

Except for Dole & Goldwater, all the "R" losers were "too young"; Goldwater was borderline.

DOBs for candidates on election day, 4 NOV 2008:

McCain 72 yrs, 2 mos, 6 days (b. 29 AUG 1936)
Clinton 61 yrs, 0 mos, 9 days (26 OCT 1947)
Obama 47 yrs, 3 mos, 0 days (b. 4 AUG 1961)

FWIW, according to this pattern, McCain is easily "old" enough.

Obama, far from being "too young", is actually center-mass to be elected as a "D".

Unless the 4T brings a new paradigm ("Old Ds" and "Young Rs"), and even if women get "bonus years" for increased longevity, then Clinton blew her last chance to win the presidency in her own right (assuming she wasn't already too old this time around); her only chance to be president now would be to get in as VP, and then wait for the POTUS to die or resign (like Truman or LBJ; Ford lost).

...this held for 2012 and 2016. Romney was old enough to run as a "R", but lost anyway, while Obama's age was irrelevant, since he was the incumbent. Trump was easily old enough to win as a "R", and Clinton was too old to win as a "D" (she was actually too old to win in 2008 as a "D").

The "D" challengers with delegates:

Sanders (b. 8 SEP 1941)
Bloomberg (b. 14 FEB 1942)
Biden 1942 (b. 20 NOV 1942)
Warren (b. 22 JUN 1949)
Klobuchar (b. 25 MAY 1960)
----------------------------------------
Gabbard (b. 12 APR 1981)
Buttigieg (b. 19 JAN 1982)
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Messages In This Thread
2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-07-2020, 05:08 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 01:27 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 01:58 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 03-09-2020, 06:08 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-10-2020, 01:39 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-10-2020, 04:33 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 03-10-2020, 02:04 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-10-2020, 02:13 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 03-16-2020, 10:31 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-17-2020, 11:16 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 03-10-2020, 04:34 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Bob Butler 54 - 03-10-2020, 06:51 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 03-11-2020, 09:41 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-11-2020, 01:42 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-11-2020, 02:43 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-11-2020, 01:00 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-16-2020, 06:58 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Bob Butler 54 - 03-16-2020, 08:02 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 02:57 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-16-2020, 03:49 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by ResidentArtist - 03-16-2020, 04:50 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 03-16-2020, 10:50 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by ResidentArtist - 03-16-2020, 04:14 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 03-18-2020, 01:07 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 03-18-2020, 01:09 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-18-2020, 06:13 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by beechnut79 - 03-19-2020, 10:56 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-19-2020, 02:06 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 06-07-2020, 03:11 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 03-19-2020, 10:49 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 03-19-2020, 02:24 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Mickey123 - 06-07-2020, 11:46 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 06-08-2020, 09:13 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 06-05-2020, 05:46 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 06-06-2020, 05:28 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 06-06-2020, 05:59 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Tim Randal Walker - 06-07-2020, 09:52 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 06-07-2020, 09:57 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 06-07-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 06-08-2020, 09:51 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 06-12-2020, 06:02 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 06-11-2020, 11:26 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 06-12-2020, 06:34 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by TeacherinExile - 08-05-2020, 03:12 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 04:37 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:10 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 08-05-2020, 05:49 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 08-06-2020, 07:27 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 08-07-2020, 01:20 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 08-07-2020, 06:25 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 08-07-2020, 02:56 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 08-07-2020, 06:33 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by David Horn - 08-09-2020, 10:04 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 08-07-2020, 01:21 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 11-02-2020, 03:20 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 11-02-2020, 07:05 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 11-03-2020, 02:12 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 11-03-2020, 04:48 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 11-02-2020, 05:31 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Bob Butler 54 - 11-03-2020, 05:42 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 11-03-2020, 09:32 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 11-03-2020, 10:25 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by JDG 66 - 11-03-2020, 02:49 PM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 11-05-2020, 01:24 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 11-04-2020, 12:56 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 11-04-2020, 01:42 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by pbrower2a - 11-05-2020, 10:00 AM
RE: 2020 Predictions - by Eric the Green - 11-04-2020, 02:11 AM

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