03-10-2020, 02:04 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2020, 02:28 PM by Eric the Green.)
Well thanks for asking James. It's been on here all the time. I gave Sanders or Biden some chance, because their 14-7 horoscope scores are almost as good as Trump's 9-4, with higher positive numbers. I predicted successfully that they would be the candidates left standing in the Democratic race (as it turns out we have 3, and all had the highest scores). But Trump still has a % advantage in his horoscope score. He has an advantage in the new moon before election method that I use too, as well as incumbency. The party in power is favored to win in 2020 by that method.
But there are caveats! The Jupiter-Saturn conjunction coming up on Dec.21 has favored the challenging party 7 out of 11 times in USA history, including the previous 3 times, for the election just preceding the conjunction by a few months. In the 4 cases where the incumbent party won, it was well entrenched or had no opposition (for example FDR in 1940). And in the new moon chart, Uranus squares (90 degree stressful angle) the Ascendant (rising degree and sign) from below the horizon, as it did in 2016. Uranus in that position has usually toppled the incumbent. So, although I give Trump a slight advantage astrologically, I make no firm prediction for 2020.
Although your method of an old Democratic candidate applies to Sanders, it may not, since he has so much youth support. If Sanders were nominated, he might in fact upset your pattern. But unless Joe has a severe attack of dementia in the next few weeks, his nomination seems assured. His appeal to the youth vote is weak, which would support your prediction if young people don't show up, just as they didn't well enough for Hillary.
Brower has been reviewing the Lichtman Keys (a good method similar to what you have written above), and finds Trump lacking. I am not so sure yet.
I think if Biden stays mentally reasonably healthy, he will likely win Pennsylvania (his former home state) and Michigan (normally Democratic) back from Trump, so the question is whether he can win Wisconsin. If he can't, then Biden could still win just by getting all 4 Maine electoral votes back and the extra Nebraska vote too. Or he could possibly win Arizona. And the older Democrats all flocked to Biden on Super Tuesday (and likely today) because they think he also has a chance in North Carolina and Florida, and even maybe in Ohio and Iowa. Well, we'll see.
But there are caveats! The Jupiter-Saturn conjunction coming up on Dec.21 has favored the challenging party 7 out of 11 times in USA history, including the previous 3 times, for the election just preceding the conjunction by a few months. In the 4 cases where the incumbent party won, it was well entrenched or had no opposition (for example FDR in 1940). And in the new moon chart, Uranus squares (90 degree stressful angle) the Ascendant (rising degree and sign) from below the horizon, as it did in 2016. Uranus in that position has usually toppled the incumbent. So, although I give Trump a slight advantage astrologically, I make no firm prediction for 2020.
Although your method of an old Democratic candidate applies to Sanders, it may not, since he has so much youth support. If Sanders were nominated, he might in fact upset your pattern. But unless Joe has a severe attack of dementia in the next few weeks, his nomination seems assured. His appeal to the youth vote is weak, which would support your prediction if young people don't show up, just as they didn't well enough for Hillary.
Brower has been reviewing the Lichtman Keys (a good method similar to what you have written above), and finds Trump lacking. I am not so sure yet.
I think if Biden stays mentally reasonably healthy, he will likely win Pennsylvania (his former home state) and Michigan (normally Democratic) back from Trump, so the question is whether he can win Wisconsin. If he can't, then Biden could still win just by getting all 4 Maine electoral votes back and the extra Nebraska vote too. Or he could possibly win Arizona. And the older Democrats all flocked to Biden on Super Tuesday (and likely today) because they think he also has a chance in North Carolina and Florida, and even maybe in Ohio and Iowa. Well, we'll see.